Vanlok
deus ex machina
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Eве нешто во контекст на муабетот од погоре, анализи и мислење што се случува.
simplicius76.substack.com
But let’s just say Trump’s plan to hit Russia on oil and gas works to an extent, whether through OPEC price reduction or the combination of that and a renewed targeting of Russia’s oil tanker ‘shadow fleet’, would this really “instantly end the war” in one day as Trump claims?
Firstly: even if Russia lost vast amounts of oil revenue, how could this possibly end its war effort “instantly”? Russia has one of the highest foreign exchange reserves in the world, not to mention various materials and commodities. Even such a hit as envisioned by Trump could not slow Russia’s war machine for quite a long time. But even that proposition is a big “if”.
Last time I reported that according to Bloomberg Russia’s revenues—which include mostly non oil and gas—have surged to record levels:
Bloomberg admits Russia has such high-flying economic growth that revenues are soaring even without counting oil.
...
This is the big question—will Trump’s ego lead him to turning Ukraine into his Vietnam, as Bannon sharply warned about days ago? Could Trump go “all out” and try to scare Russia by supplying Ukraine with everything, including moving past Biden’s old red lines and allowing Ukraine total deep strike authority into Russia, particularly with a slew of new weapons systems like JASSMs? Needless to say, such an action would gravely damage Trump’s “peace maker” hopes, nor would it ultimately have any real effect other than merely making Russia more angry.
Trump wanted to pull 20,000 troops from Europe—so it makes little sense that he’d do a 180 reversal and then commit major forces to Ukraine as a last ditch threat. As such, it seems Trump has few real options, and the war will likely continue being prosecuted under Russia’s timeline. Russian Duma member under Putin’s United Russia party Elena Panina said precisely this:
Listen to what she says at the end:
After all, a much more underratedly keen Trump would know not to show his hand too early before more of the deep state establishment was cleansed. As such, a plausible plan would be to “carry on the status quo” so as not to arouse too much suspicion at first, in the opening stanza of his administration, but then as his power is secured, begin progressively switching to a more anti-establishment position on Ukraine.
A new WSJ piece agrees that Russia is not afraid of Trump’s threats, claiming Russia is able to fight on for “another year”—summary below:
https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russia-brushes-off-trumps-threats-on-ukraine-2e1e306c
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-90-day-foreign-add-205200641.html
So with nothing major changing, and Ukraine’s collapse only accelerating, Ukraine needs some big internal change to have any hopes of surviving this year. And the only thing capable of producing that is of course mobilization of the 18-25 cohort.
Now there have been increasing reports about this happening soon:
This AP article notes that:
https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-war-russia-mobilization-a2ae7c4df296a5cf5c2d0e047833756e
Ukrainian Rada member Roman Hryschuk complains that a new law has created a loophole to allow the mobilization of ‘previously exempted’ students and teachers:
This was followed by reports even a Lvov military band is being press-ganged:
A new British Times piece summarizes all of these issues:
https://www.thetimes.com/article/dee8f42f-ed5d-4d59-b90b-944c673ed4ed
It notes:
You’ll recall I previously deep-dived these exchange reports here, proving they are real and even recorded in Ukrainian sources.
Last time the ratio ended up at:
...
Trump Raises Heat on Russia with Belligerent New Threats
In the last report we had the first inklings of Trump’s now-revealed approach to “ending the Ukraine war”, but now he has finally clarified it in full in a series of new statements, which included first and foremost this Tweet:
simplicius76.substack.com
But let’s just say Trump’s plan to hit Russia on oil and gas works to an extent, whether through OPEC price reduction or the combination of that and a renewed targeting of Russia’s oil tanker ‘shadow fleet’, would this really “instantly end the war” in one day as Trump claims?
Firstly: even if Russia lost vast amounts of oil revenue, how could this possibly end its war effort “instantly”? Russia has one of the highest foreign exchange reserves in the world, not to mention various materials and commodities. Even such a hit as envisioned by Trump could not slow Russia’s war machine for quite a long time. But even that proposition is a big “if”.
Last time I reported that according to Bloomberg Russia’s revenues—which include mostly non oil and gas—have surged to record levels:
From the article, read the underlined very carefully:
Bloomberg admits Russia has such high-flying economic growth that revenues are soaring even without counting oil.
That’s not to mention the Ruble has been steadily rising against the USD again, now at 98 after spending weeks at around 102-103.
...
This is the big question—will Trump’s ego lead him to turning Ukraine into his Vietnam, as Bannon sharply warned about days ago? Could Trump go “all out” and try to scare Russia by supplying Ukraine with everything, including moving past Biden’s old red lines and allowing Ukraine total deep strike authority into Russia, particularly with a slew of new weapons systems like JASSMs? Needless to say, such an action would gravely damage Trump’s “peace maker” hopes, nor would it ultimately have any real effect other than merely making Russia more angry.
Trump wanted to pull 20,000 troops from Europe—so it makes little sense that he’d do a 180 reversal and then commit major forces to Ukraine as a last ditch threat. As such, it seems Trump has few real options, and the war will likely continue being prosecuted under Russia’s timeline. Russian Duma member under Putin’s United Russia party Elena Panina said precisely this:
Listen to what she says at the end:
But I had mentioned in the opening that Trump’s threats seemed so almost unbelievably misguided that they could be perhaps read as deliberate misdirection rather than serious plans. Is this a possibility? Could Trump perhaps be merely going through the motions of what he’s “expected” to say by allies and the deep state in order to throw them off the scent, when in reality his real plan is to subversively cut off Ukraine and bleed it dry until capitulation? This would be a more conspiratorial “Q-Anon” level reading, but perhaps it’s possible, though the chance is likely low.
After all, a much more underratedly keen Trump would know not to show his hand too early before more of the deep state establishment was cleansed. As such, a plausible plan would be to “carry on the status quo” so as not to arouse too much suspicion at first, in the opening stanza of his administration, but then as his power is secured, begin progressively switching to a more anti-establishment position on Ukraine.
A new WSJ piece agrees that Russia is not afraid of Trump’s threats, claiming Russia is able to fight on for “another year”—summary below:
https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russia-brushes-off-trumps-threats-on-ukraine-2e1e306c
But the next biggest question is what will Trump do for now regarding Ukrainian aid and weapons shipments? Various “headlines” went around today claiming all foreign aid was stopped—except for Israel and Egypt. But this was apparently quickly addendum’d into:Russia is not afraid of Trump's threats of "super sanctions" and is ready to fight for at least another year, developing its successes on the front, - Wall Street Journal.
Moscow believes that it is successfully resisting sanctions and is capable of withstanding at least another year of conflict.
“...the situation is not so acute as to demand the cessation of all military actions... We are able to insist on our demands... and if Ukraine’s defense continues to collapse, as it is now, it would be wiser for the other side to agree to our conditions,” said HSE expert V. Kashin.
RVvoenkor
So, according to the above weapons aid to Ukraine continues on, but presumably at a much reduced clip.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-90-day-foreign-add-205200641.html
So with nothing major changing, and Ukraine’s collapse only accelerating, Ukraine needs some big internal change to have any hopes of surviving this year. And the only thing capable of producing that is of course mobilization of the 18-25 cohort.
Now there have been increasing reports about this happening soon:
This AP article notes that:
https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-war-russia-mobilization-a2ae7c4df296a5cf5c2d0e047833756e
Ukrainian Rada member Roman Hryschuk complains that a new law has created a loophole to allow the mobilization of ‘previously exempted’ students and teachers:
Meanwhile, Rada member Goncharenko reports even advanced NATO AD Iris-T technicians are being mobilized to the front, such is the manpower drought:Students and teachers may begin to be mobilized as early as this summer, says Rada deputy
RVvoenkor
This was followed by reports even a Lvov military band is being press-ganged:
A new British Times piece summarizes all of these issues:
https://www.thetimes.com/article/dee8f42f-ed5d-4d59-b90b-944c673ed4ed
It notes:
As a further demonstration of Ukraine’s loss disparity, another exchange of dead bodies has occurred with a reported 49 Russian bodies to a jaw-dropping 757 Ukrainian ones:
You’ll recall I previously deep-dived these exchange reports here, proving they are real and even recorded in Ukrainian sources.
Last time the ratio ended up at:
With the new numbers, we are at:
That’s almost a 10:1 kill ratio.
...
