Повторно Нагорно Карабах ?

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On December 3, Azerbaijan said that nearly 2,800 of its soldiers were killed in the recent battle with Armenian forces in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh.


According to the statement, over 100 Azerbaijani soldiers are still missing. At least 1,245 soldiers were wounded in the heated battle.

Па па па...
Сепак добро си ја завршиле работата артилерците од НК/Ерменија.
Со оглед што воздушната надмоќ ја имаа Азербејџан и Турција. Овие бројки се ненормално добри, за Ерменија нормално.

На крај сепак "старото советско ѓубре" добра работа си завршило на терен.

Едино голем минус им остана што немаа навреме набавено Ерменија дузина од Панцир-С системите и БУК...
Али Ок, памет за друг пат.
Колку имат загинати Ерменци и колку се иселени ?
 
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Колку имат загинати Ерменци и колку се иселени ?
Ерменија 2425, Азербејџан 2783, 140+ цивили и уште по некоја стотка се водат за исчезнати на двете страни

За иселени имаше информации дека околу 90к Ерменци, ама Русите објавија пред некој ден дека веќе 25-30к се вратиле назад
 
Последно уредено:
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Сепак кога ќе се земе во предвид буџетот на двете држави, модерноста на воената техника, бројката на армијата+ сириските џихадисти, плус подршка од втората/третата по јачина држава во НАТО....
Во овие официјални бројки на загинати од азербејџанската војска, треба да се додадат минимум потврдените за загинати 550 сириски џихадисти потврдени од лондонската опсерваторија во Сирија.
Тогаш бројката пак ќе кажам за борбата на некој вид Давид против Голијат е феноменална за Ерменија и НК.
Со добра стратегија и подобрување на воената техника Ерменија не би ги отпишал од НК. Ефикасноста се гледа им е на екстра ниво.
Ќе им требаат и добри договори и соработки за плус обучена војска како помош од пријателски држави и сл.
 

мкд владе

Гостин
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Сепак кога ќе се земе во предвид буџетот на двете држави, модерноста на воената техника, бројката на армијата+ сириските џихадисти, плус подршка од втората/третата по јачина држава во НАТО....
Во овие официјални бројки на загинати од азербејџанската војска, треба да се додадат минимум потврдените за загинати 550 сириски џихадисти потврдени од лондонската опсерваторија во Сирија.
Тогаш бројката пак ќе кажам за борбата на некој вид Давид против Голијат е феноменална за Ерменија и НК.
Со добра стратегија и подобрување на воената техника Ерменија не би ги отпишал од НК. Ефикасноста се гледа им е на екстра ниво.
Ќе им требаат и добри договори и соработки за плус обучена војска како помош од пријателски држави и сл.
Slobodno neka zemat vo predvid se sto sakaat. Sekako isto im se fakja, go jadoja nemien separatistite.
 
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Slobodno neka zemat vo predvid se sto sakaat. Sekako isto im se fakja, go jadoja nemien separatistite.
Да де. Ама мора да се спремни за следната рунда.
Вакви регионални конфликти траат со децении, Азербејџан им требало 30 години да го погодат моментот и да им се поклопат стварите.
90% од буџетот им е од енергенсите, тие со тек на време ќе паѓаат во побарувачка и цена. Без брдо пари тешко до таква софистицирана воена техника да имаа пак пристап. Ердо ќе си замине кад-тад...
Ќе дојдат до шанса и Ерменија за НК.
 
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Анализа на ерменски медиум.

Armenia’s New Geopolitical Reality

The war in Karabakh is over. What’s left of the eastern part of our homeland is now Russian territory and will soon become another Abkhazia. Independent Artsakh no longer exists. Russian political circles are already discussing a major reconstruction plan which includes thousands of apartment buildings, activation of Stepanakert airport, gas supplies, schools, hospitals and the possibility of citizenship to the Armenian population at a later stage. The Russian language is now official in Artsakh and for the first time in history the Russian bear is showcasing soft power. The Russians are fed up risking their presence in the Caucasus relying on the political immaturity of the Armenian authorities. They solved the problem once and for all, Artsakh is now a Russian military base and it will remain so until Russia officially transforms it into an exclave of its territory. For the Russians, their presence in the Caucasus is now secured.

For the Turks however, the battle is only beginning. After centuries of attempting to secure a foothold in the Caucasus, a resurgent Turkey succeeded in ending the Russian power play in the region and annexing Azerbaijan, a country which henceforth has no legal status other than being the political shadow of a rising Turkish power. Turkey’s priorities of course were never about the restoration of the so called “territorial integrity” of Azerbaijan. What Erdogan really wanted was to secure access to Central Asia and he succeeded in doing this with the consent of the Armenian authorities who agreed to provide Turkey a passage to the Caspian through Nakhichevan.

No, you did not misread that last sentence. Let me repeat what I wrote. The Armenian authorities conceded to providing Turkey a safe passage to the Caspian through Nakhichevan. It is critical for Armenians to understand that the key player henceforth is Turkey, not Azerbaijan.

The victory in Artsakh also allowed Erdogan to realize the dream he has long been yearning for: showcase Turkey as a power that can lend assistance to “nations” suffering from “oppression”; and such “nations” are not few: Crimean Tatars in Ukraine, Meskhetian Turks in Georgia, Western Azerbaijanis in Iran, Pakis in Kashmir, Uyghurs in China, Chechens in Russia, Turks in Bulgaria and Albanians in Macedonia. Whichever direction Turkey wants to expand next, it will find an “oppressed” nation to “assist”. Nothing surprising here of course, the same strategy is utilized by almost every regional or global power on the planet.

But why the Caucasus? Turkey’s true ambitions have never been in the East. That romanticized idea of “back to the Turan” is merely a tale to unite Turkish peoples and stir feelings of nationalism. Historically, Turkey has always aspired to expand westwards, but such a move could be very costly. Thus, the sultan needs resources and geographical depth before attempting an adventure against Europe; and Central Asia can provide him with both. Oil, Gas, Lead, Uranium, Aluminum, Iron and market for Turkish products, not to mention control over the land routes of global trade. Controlling Central Asia could transform Turkey into one of the best poised nations in the world. The Turks are aware that China is the next global economic superpower and is investing billions on the “one road, one belt” initiative, which is expected to drive the growth of the Chinese economy in the coming decades. The initiative will connect China to the rest of the world through a complex network of roads, railways and seaports. And where do the majority of these roads pass from? You’ve guessed it! Central Asia! Imagine the influence Turkey would have if it assumes the role of gatekeeper to the world’s largest economy. Thus, the Central Asian connection is vital for the rise of Turkish power. The type of power that would allow Turkey to take on Europe in the coming 50 years, as European demography cripples due to declining birth rates, increased muslim immigration and a fading Christian heritage.

Enter Armenia. Poised between Turkey and Azerbaijan, Armenia has always been the barrier that prevented Turkey from expanding to the Caucasus. With no significant economic resources and demographics however, Armenia could have never play this role without Russia’s support. For the latter, a strong presence in the Caucasus is vital. Not only because it considers the Caucasus its area of influence but because of the fear that a strong Turkish presence in the region could stir separatist emotions on its Southern borders where Chechens, Avars, Lezgins, Azerbaijanis and other ethnic muslim groups make a significant part of the population. Perhaps it is due to subsequent Armenian authorities’ ability to play the “Turkish card” that Russia never really pushed Armenia to surrender Artsakh; fearing a rise in anti-Russian sentiments in the country which would compromise its position. The above equation however no longer exists, the so called “revolutionary” government in Armenia mismanaged its ties with the Russians, emboldening Azerbaijan and Turkey and encouraging them to start the 2nd Karabakh war. Without access to higher echelons of Russian political circles, and having antagonized their ally for 2.5 years, the new Armenian authorities could not convince the Russians to intervene, and as a result we now have what we have.

If there is still a single Armenian who believes that Azerbaijan (and subsequently Turkey) signed the ceasefire agreement out of their good will and that the end of the war will bring lasting peace, open borders and economic prosperity to Armenia, it would probably be better if we stop calling ourselves a nation. On the evening of November 9, with the Armenian front collapsing in Shushi, the azeris came closer than ever to finishing the Karabakh issue once and for all. Seeing that the Armenians were on the verge of being run over, the Russians finally stepped in. The Azeris made the critical mistake of shooting down a Russian Mi-24 helicopter over Armenia, giving Russia the pretext to enter the war. As Aliev tried a final push towards Stepanakert to try and force a new reality, an unknown Iskander-M missile landed in an open area near Baku. The message to Aliev was clear, the war ends tonight.

What now?

Despite the pain of the defeat, the Armenian nation should move forward and should do so quickly. The emboldened enemy declared last week that it has its sight on Zangezur, Sevan and Yerevan. And regardless of how fictitious this statement may sound, let’s remember that a few years back the idea of losing Artsakh in 44 days would also have sounded absurd. Armenia is no longer dealing with Azerbaijan, it is dealing with Turkey and that’s a whole other equation. Erdogan is stating that the “conflict with Armenia is not over yet” and that he will continue what his grandfathers started. Armenians should understand very well where things are moving. In the face of this new existential threat, the Armenian nation should take immediate and extreme measures to prevent the loss of the last piece of its homeland and the final resolution of the Armenian question. These measures should include immediate actions complimented with long term strategic vision that would ensure Armenia’s survival in the face of these new geopolitical realities.

Immediate Actions:

- Election of a new Prime Minister who could consolidate Armenian society and create a road map to remove the country from the current state of non-governance and chaos.
- Formation of government of national accord backed by all political parties (preferably of technocrats).
- Formation of a national committee for the repatriation of POWs and the remains of our martyred soldiers.
- Formation of special committee to oversee the demarcation of Armenia’s borders.
- Organization of return of Armenian refugees to their homes in Artsakh.
- Formation of a committee of renowned historians and archeologists to map and archive Armenian historic monuments in Artsakh and raise the issue of their protection with UNESCO, Russia, the EU and the Russian Orthodox and Roman Catholic Churches.
- Formation of a special committee to document the crimes committed by azeri armed forces during and after the war and submit these cases as necessary to the ECHR and International Criminal Court.
- Negotiate with the Russian side the transfer of security of Nakhichevan-Azerbaijan highway to a mutual Russian-Armenian contingent.
- Initiate talks on the status of Artsakh.
- Launch of immediate discussions with the permanent members of UN Security Council, Minsk Group Cochairs, BRICS, the EU, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Arab League on the right of People of Artsakh to self determination.
- Assess the damage inflicted on the Armenian economy as a result of the war, loss of the Sotk mine and alienation of large enterprises and properties in Artsakh, and the impact of war on Armenia’s food security due to the surrender of Arax river basin and other fertile lands in Artsakh.
- Organize national efforts to fund reconstruction and rehabilitation projects in Artsakh.
- Introduce constitutional changes to reduce the powers of the PM’s office and create a more balanced political system where responsibility and power are distributed between the PM, the President and the Parliament.
- Cessation of operations of all Soros funded NGOs in the country and launch a major investigation on the role of foreign NGOs, yellow journalists and fake social media groups in sowing discord, hatred and disunity within the Armenian society.
- Organization of early parliamentary elections in 1 year and formation of a new government.

Intermediate Strategic Plan:

Foreign Policy:
- Initiate talks with Russia on the creation of a new framework of economic and defense cooperation and integration
- Restoration of relations with Iran to counter the Israeli factor and development of political partnership with China and India to counter Central Asian (Kazakh/Afghan) and Paskistani factors respectively, all of which played an active role in the war against Artsakh.
- Development of relations with KSA, UAE and Egypt and joining the newly formed Greece-Cyprus-France-Egypt-UAE alliance to counter Turkish influence in the Mediterranean.
- Diversion from the existing unclear and strategically blind pro-EU policies and development of closer relations with individual European countries that have political agendas aligned with Armenia’s strategic interests (France, Austria, Serbia, Greece, Cyprus, Belgium and the Netherlands)

National Priorities:

- Reinstatement of the Ministry of the Diaspora and its reformation as Ministry of Diaspora and Repatriation.
- Development of a strategy for the preservation of the national identity of Javakhk Armenians and geographical integration of Javakh (not to be confused with political integration) into Northern Armenia through modern transportation links, schools and hospitals in border areas to provide Javakhk Armenians opportunities to receive quality education, healthcare and maintain a strong connection with Armenia.
- Development of national strategy to recognize and reintegrate Hamshen Armenians into Armenian Culture and identity.
- Formation of Armenia-Diaspora cooperation council to align global Armenian communities with Armenia’s strategic priorities and organize lobbying efforts.
- Formation of Armenia-Diaspora economic council to identify projects of strategic significance and organize forums to finance their construction (The North-South Highway, the new nuclear power plant, Armenia-Iran railway link, Armenia-Russia land and sea corridors via Georgia, formation of a Armenian national air carrier...).
- Development of different repatriation programs for diasporan Armenians willing to relocate to Armenia designed to attract different types of Armenian immigrants (families, experienced professionals and refugees).
- Development of national program to increase birth rates and stimulate population growth in Armenia.

Defense:

- Initiation of defense reforms and creation of a professional army; complemented with compulsory military service for all men and women based on the “Nation Army” principle.
- Organization of intensive military training program for diasporan volunteers.
- Creation of civil defense infrastructure (bomb shelters, grain and fuel reserves,...)
- Development of military industry, with focus on the production of advanced military technologies as drones, missile guidance systems and electronic warfare.
- Changing Armenian military doctrine and strategy to counter the Turkish threat.
- Development of National strategy on cyber threats and security.

The end of the 2nd Karabakh war opens up a new chapter in the history of Armenia and the region. While Nakhichevan remains Azerbaijan’s achilles’ heel against which a clear Armenian strategy must be developed, the continuation of Armenian statehood will depend on the ability of Armenian political circles, and people, to comprehend changing geopolitical realities. Within this context, the deepening of the Russian-Armenian alliance seems to be the most plausible course of action, for now, to safeguard Armenian statehood against Turkish encroachments, until the election of a more capable leadership in Armenia which would be able to better understand these geopolitical changes and return the country back to the track of healthy development.
 

Vanlok

deus ex machina
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Трезвено и реално гледиште, само една замерка @Gag што не си го линкал изворот (за жал и многу други исто практикуваат). Во случајов не прашувам за нешто друго туку јас лично со интерес би проследил и други текстови од истиот автор/извори. Но сеедно од кој аспект коректно е да се наведе изворот, па макар после го критикувале изворот, како што - исто - за жал други често практикуваат (кога не им се допаѓа содржината).

... Perhaps it is due to subsequent Armenian authorities’ ability to play the “Turkish card” that Russia never really pushed Armenia to surrender Artsakh; fearing a rise in anti-Russian sentiments in the country which would compromise its position. The above equation however no longer exists, the so called “revolutionary” government in Armenia mismanaged its ties with the Russians, emboldening Azerbaijan and Turkey and encouraging them to start the 2nd Karabakh war. Without access to higher echelons of Russian political circles, and having antagonized their ally for 2.5 years, the new Armenian authorities could not convince the Russians to intervene, and as a result we now have what we have.
Тоа е тоа, сосема реално. Азерите/Турците не само што долго и обемно се спремаа за војна туку и го начекаа моментот кога доаѓа нова ерменска власт преку обоена револуција спонзорирана од Сорос (а посредно од чичо Сем), и дефакто ги расипува односите со Русија, и потоа се случува тоа што се случи (како заклучува и авторот на текстот).
Само не ми е јасно зошто некои овде толку упорно одбиваа/одбиваат да се соочат со ова.

Immediate Actions:
...
- Cessation of operations of all Soros funded NGOs in the country and launch a major investigation on the role of foreign NGOs, yellow journalists and fake social media groups in sowing discord, hatred and disunity within the Armenian society.
@jamajka поздрав, како си друже? :)

- Initiate talks with Russia on the creation of a new framework of economic and defense cooperation and integration
- Restoration of relations with Iran to counter the Israeli factor and development of political partnership with China and India to counter Central Asian (Kazakh/Afghan) and Paskistani factors respectively, all of which played an active role in the war against Artsakh.
- Development of relations with KSA, UAE and Egypt and joining the newly formed Greece-Cyprus-France-Egypt-UAE alliance to counter Turkish influence in the Mediterranean.
- Diversion from the existing unclear and strategically blind pro-EU policies and development of closer relations with individual European countries that have political agendas aligned with Armenia’s strategic interests (France, Austria, Serbia, Greece, Cyprus, Belgium and the Netherlands)
Да, ЕУ многу им помогна на Ерменците. Макрон дури и јавно се искара со Ердо. :ROFLMAO:


...Russian political circles are already discussing a major reconstruction plan which includes thousands of apartment buildings, activation of Stepanakert airport, gas supplies, schools, hospitals and the possibility of citizenship to the Armenian population at a later stage. The Russian language is now official in Artsakh and for the first time in history the Russian bear is showcasing soft power.
Овој дел звучи како критика кон Русија, и веднаш ме потсети на следнава сцена од Монти Пајтон, Брајановото житие: :) :LOL:

 
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Трезвено и реално гледиште, само една замерка @Gag што не си го линкал изворот (за жал и многу други исто практикуваат). Во случајов не прашувам за нешто друго туку јас лично со интерес би проследил и други текстови од истиот автор/извори. Но сеедно од кој аспект коректно е да се наведе изворот, па макар после го критикувале изворот, како што - исто - за жал други често практикуваат (кога не им се допаѓа содржината).


Тоа е тоа, сосема реално. Азерите/Турците не само што долго и обемно се спремаа за војна туку и го начекаа моментот кога доаѓа нова ерменска власт преку обоена револуција спонзорирана од Сорос (а посредно од чичо Сем), и дефакто ги расипува односите со Русија, и потоа се случува тоа што се случи (како заклучува и авторот на текстот).
Само не ми е јасно зошто некои овде толку упорно одбиваа/одбиваат да се соочат со ова.


@jamajka поздрав, како си друже? :)


Да, ЕУ многу им помогна на Ерменците. Макрон дури и јавно се искара со Ердо. :ROFLMAO:



Овој дел звучи како критика кон Русија, и веднаш ме потсети на следнава сцена од Монти Пајтон, Брајановото житие: :) :LOL:

Го изгубив линкот, изворот е истиот тој од кого објавив ваква долга анализа пред повеќе страни.
 

Vanlok

deus ex machina
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Го изгубив линкот, изворот е истиот тој од кого објавив ваква долга анализа пред повеќе страни.
Па штом си го копирал текстот, значи ти бил отворен во browser и треба да го имаш некаде линкот во history.

Од пребарување на темава не гледам каде си постирал анализа (без да ти ги отварам сите постови поединечно). Не дека е нешто битно, ама линкај ако го најдеш, или другпат некад ако налеташ на сајтот.
 
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Па штом си го копирал текстот, значи ти бил отворен во browser и треба да го имаш некаде линкот во history.

Од пребарување на темава не гледам каде си постирал анализа (без да ти ги отварам сите постови поединечно). Не дека е нешто битно, ама линкај ако го најдеш, или другпат некад ако налеташ на сајтот.
Речено - сторено.
 
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