Повторно Нагорно Карабах ?
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jamajka
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Тоа е повеќе од 1/3 од населението на Нагорно Карабах.
Повеќе од 100 000 заминале. Тоа е тоа, етничкото чистење на Ерменците каде што живееле повеќе од 2 000 години. Си го одобрија ова и Русија и САД. Муслиманските орди има да збришат секоја трага од 2 000+ години постоење. Цркви, манастири, гробишта има се да уништат. Ерменците треба сериозно да работат и да станат новиот Израел таму инаку турските муслимански орки ќе чекаат прилика.
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Но и мора да имаат добри односи со Иран, бидејќи само Иран може да се спротистави на Ердо, Алиев и Израел.
Покрај тоа, сакам уште еднаш да ја потенцирам западната хипокризија (за Русија не ни правам муабет, а и презафатени се со Украина) што ни дипломатски не го запреа Азербејџан во неговото етничко чистење врз Ерменците. Кога ние имавме исти ваков проблем со албанските сепаратисти (терористи), САД и неговите западни вазали не само што дипломатски нè нападнаа нас, туку и влегоа во Македонија (не ко Србија, но ако се спротиставевме, ќе бевме како Србија). А Македонија не правеше етнички чистења, туку како и Азербејџан, сакаше да ја реинтегрира Илирида /албанската верзија на Арцак (неблагодарните и нелојални Албанци) во својата територија. Западот требаше нас да нè поддржи/да ги превиди нашите акции како што ги превидоа и преќутеа на Азербејџан, но тие ги поддржаа сепаратистите во секаква можна смисла.
Vanlok
deus ex machina
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Но ти сега западниве ги замислуваш како некои „фер и демократски сили“ кои се грижат за доброто на светов.
Реалноста е дека кyp ги боли за се освен за нивните интереси.
Автоматски споено мислење:
Абе егал, исти се.
Додуша едниве им праќаат мировници и војници им гинат таму во обид да направат нешто без да влезат во отворен конфликт и на Кафказ. А другиве им направија обоена револуција и ги саботираа Ерменците... Ама освен тоа, исти се и САД и РФ за Ерменија. А ти си објективен, и тоа е тоа.
РФ веќе водат војна против САД во Украина, а Ерменија е далеку од потребните стабилни логистички линии за во сегашната сиуација да е барем малку можно да е успее. Но реалноста нека не те спречува во филмовите.
Vanlok
deus ex machina
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What could South Caucasus look like in post-Artsakh era
Only Russia and Iran have any interest in preserving an independent Armenian state, as it prevents the formation of a pro-NATO pan-Turkic bloc, but Sorosites in Yerevan keep antagonizing both Moscow and Tehran. This could cost Armenia its very existence.
infobrics.org
With his suicidal foreign policy pivot toward the West, Pashinyan is about to turn Armenia's only two allies in the region (Russia and Iran) into enemies, while acquiring no allies whatsoever. His hopes of having Georgia change its stance are absolutely futile, as Tbilisi will not risk possible bad relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan. And the reason is pure realpolitik, since Georgia's relations with Russia are limited to tense neutrality at best, primarily due to Abkhazia and South Ossetia, both of which it sees as its own breakaway provinces. This leaves only Baku and Ankara as two primary regional partners, both in geopolitical and economic terms, although economic ties with Russia are substantial and growing (but you'll never hear Tbilisi brag about it, since it's "bad for democracy").
As Armenia is simply not important enough for Georgia to risk anything, Yerevan's strategic position has worsened considerably. This only shows the level of Pashinyan's geopolitical skill (or better said, the complete lack thereof). However, as Artsakh (the native Armenian name for Nagorno-Karabakh) is now lost, pressure on Armenia is bound to reach a boiling point. With its mortal enemies Azerbaijan and Turkey to the east and west, respectively, Yerevan's only possible ally that borders it is Iran (or at least it was before 2018). But Tehran is one of the US-led political West's primary targets and Pashinyan's suicidal subservience to the belligerent power pole has effectively destroyed any chances for an alliance with Iran, as it will simply never have more than superficially cordial relations with a NATO vassal.
Worse yet, as we all know now, Pashinyan also effectively destroyed Armenia's alliance with Russia, the only power that could protect Yerevan from any external threat. In fact, Moscow's troops are the sole reason Armenia is an independent country (or at least it was before Pashinyan). So, once again, he somehow managed to not just lose two of Yerevan's only allies, but is now in the process of turning them into enemies, while acquiring zero new friends. The best he has is the same Armenia had before – a formally neutral Georgia that actively works with Turkey and Azerbaijan, allowing the transfer of all Turkish weapons to Baku, the same ones that have been used in Artsakh for the last several years.
... as Turkey's Neo-Ottoman ambitions are hitting wall after wall across the Middle East, be it in Libya, Egypt or Syria, Armenia is left as the only option for expansion. Its complete destruction is not merely an emotional desire based on a burning historical hatred, but an actual geopolitical possibility that opens the gates of Central Asia for Ankara, the ultimate prize and dream of every pan-Turkist. The fact that Armenia needs to be eliminated to achieve that is only seen as a bonus. This is also highly beneficial to NATO, as it's bound to push Russia and Turkey into direct rivalry in Central Asia.
Thus, Yerevan only serves as a cheap pawn for the political West. Even in the extremely unlikely case that Georgia is pressured into changing its stance toward Armenia, the latter could never become a NATO member, a belligerent military alliance in which Turkey has been one of the most prominent members since 1952.
Yerevan's best bet is to urgently get rid of NATO puppets installed in 2018 and save whatever's left of its alliance with Russia. It should also turn to Iran and try to build closer ties with it, as Tehran is not very keen to see a giant pan-Turkic bloc emerge on its northwestern borders, especially not one dominated by prominent NATO members and close Israeli allies.
It would be wise for Armenia to capitalize on this, but it requires an independent leadership and capable diplomatic establishment, both of which were lost in 2018. There's still time, although it's running out fast. Sorosite Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan recently called for UN peacekeepers to be sent to Artsakh, but that's effectively impossible, as Azerbaijan controls all corridors that connect Artsakh and Armenia, Lachin included. There's not a single reason why Baku would allow such deployments. Once again, no matter how this geopolitical equation is set up, this leaves only one option for Yerevan – Russia.
Vanlok
deus ex machina
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Nagorno-Karabakh Is No More
Why would the current administration in Yerevan ever care for a few lost souls in Artsakh? ❗️Join us on Telegram , Twitter , and VK . In the end, Nagorno-Karabakh –…
Автоматски споено мислење:
Eurasia note #83 - Tragedy As Armenians Flee Karabakh
Yerevan yields Artsakh to Azerbaijan, Russia stands aside
moneycircus.substack.com
Автоматски споено мислење:
Во меѓувреме во комшии (Грузија):
Georgia’s security service accuses Ukrainian official of plotting coup
The deputy chief of Ukraine’s military counterintelligence is planning an overthrow of Georgia’s government, it says.
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Не е директно врзано со насловот на темата ама тука некаде е.
Јерменија ратификовала Римски статут, придружује се Међународном кривичном суду
Е сега она што е уште поважно е како оваа ќе се одрази-рефлектира на односите Ерменија - Азербејџан, ќе има продолжетоци или ќе почекаме да се наместат коцките?
Јерменија ратификовала Римски статут, придружује се Међународном кривичном суду
Е сега она што е уште поважно е како оваа ќе се одрази-рефлектира на односите Ерменија - Азербејџан, ќе има продолжетоци или ќе почекаме да се наместат коцките?
Vanlok
deus ex machina
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Интересно е колку САД на времето го критикуваа тој суд (посебно одредени ПОТУСИ и фукционери кои беа директно засегнати), ама последниве години очигледно им се наоѓа прилично корисен (членките на судот се сега вазали кои се под 100% контрола, и судот се користи за „пресуди против РФ“). Инаку ваљда во старт е јасно дека ова е по западни напатствија, а против РФ.
За Ерменија нема да можат ништо да направат.Арцак Карабах нема директна граница со Ерменија, и нема начин како да се распоредат мировници, дури и по претпоставка дека успешно ќе се донесе одлука за нивна употреба (вето ќе стават многу засегнати страни, почнувајќи со Турција, ама и многу други).
Ова е само пи-ар потег на Пашанјан за пред домашен електорат, и наметнатно од западните за понатамошна антагонизација на Русија.
За Ерменија нема да можат ништо да направат.
Ова е само пи-ар потег на Пашанјан за пред домашен електорат, и наметнатно од западните за понатамошна антагонизација на Русија.
Toma
Корона стронг
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Знаеме дека Русија е зла држава и ништо добро не може да се виде од неа.
Мене ме интересира како „меџународната“ која е лулката на добрината и правдата уште нема воведено невидени санкции кон Азербеџан, очекував Северџистан да воведе исти санкции како и на Русија, а Славјанка да тропне на тоа масата и да се закани дека ако треба и воено ќе интервенира.
^секако во еден влажен сон
Мене ме интересира како „меџународната“ која е лулката на добрината и правдата уште нема воведено невидени санкции кон Азербеџан, очекував Северџистан да воведе исти санкции како и на Русија, а Славјанка да тропне на тоа масата и да се закани дека ако треба и воено ќе интервенира.
^секако во еден влажен сон
Vanlok
deus ex machina
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Сега шегите настрана ама Славјанка изгледа како кадарна навистина силно да тропа на маса.
Еве и малку контекст за интересите на западните.
infobrics.org
The latest escalation is the first one since March when Azeri attacks claimed the lives of at least three Armenian soldiers. This wouldn't be the first time Azerbaijan is accusing Armenia of attacking its troops. Given the rather difficult position of both Armenia proper and Artsakh, it's unclear why they would want to escalate against Baku, given the clear superiority of Azeri forces in the last several years. Azerbaijan is most likely trying to provide yet another pretext to resume its offensive in the region, especially now when Russia is preoccupied with its counteroffensive against NATO aggression in Europe.
It's quite clear Azerbaijan is trying to use the current geopolitical situation to fulfill its long-term goal of capturing the entire territory of the Armenian-populated Artsakh. However, this would require Baku to effectively go against Russia's interests. Moscow has warned Azerbaijan against escalating the conflict any further. Despite the successful geopolitical game Azeri leadership has been playing for years, balancing between the Eurasian giant to the north, Turkey and the political West, this is reaching its high point and Moscow is highly unlikely to allow further attacks. Back in March, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu warned Baku that the Russian military is more than capable of conducting large-scale operations in multiple theaters, clearly implying that no unilateral Azeri action will be tolerated. Baku complied and halted its attacks.
However, in late July, both Armenian and Azeri delegations visited the United States and met with the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. While there is no way for us to know what exactly the US political leadership told either side, apart from the usual diplomatic statements of "hopes for peace", the very fact that the Azeri side decided to escalate the situation mere days after the visit is quite telling. It certainly is in the interest of the belligerent imperialist thalassocracy to see any kind of escalation in the former USSR, especially in areas where Russian troops are directly deployed, as this would divert Moscow's attention away from Ukraine. American intelligence assets have been reactivated all across the former Eastern Bloc to do exactly that, be it Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Serbia/former Yugoslavia, etc.
An escalating conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh would also benefit the US in the sense that it would further undermine relations between Russia and Turkey. Although both countries have been maintaining a sort of "Frankensteinish" geopolitical partnership, compartmentalizing their diametrically opposing interests in one region with converging interests in another, in the long-term, Moscow and Ankara are bound to clash. Erdogan's attempts to create a combination of a Turkic and Islamic world dominated by Turkey go directly against the interests of Russia, Iran, Syria and other global and regional powers. The political West quietly supports Turkey in this endeavor, or at the very least is not against it. Erdogan's imperialist fantasies are perfectly positioned to undermine the long-term goal of creating a stable Eurasia, composed of powers such as Russia, India, China, Iran and others.
By having Azerbaijan capture most, if not all of Artsakh, the US accomplishes the goal of having Armenia proper effectively surrounded by hostile countries. Given the sheer belligerence of Turkey and its ally in Baku, it's highly likely they'd try to attack Armenia itself, which would both eliminate it as a state and allow the Turkic countries uninterrupted access to each other, as well as open the gates of Central Asia for Ankara. To accomplish this, not even the whole of Armenia has to be taken. All Turkey and Azerbaijan need is Armenia's southern Syunik province. Given that Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a NATO-like security alliance led by Russia which also includes a number of post-Soviet states, this would force Moscow to react.
Such a move wouldn't only push Russia into another conflict, but could possibly shake the very foundations of CSTO itself, as countries like Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Belarus would also need to respond to Yerevan's call for collective defense. Russia couldn't simply ignore Armenia's fate, as any sort of Turkey's direct, uninterrupted access to Azerbaijan and further east, to Central Asia, would be even worse for Russia's interests and strategic security on its entire southern flank, from the south Caucasus to China.
Автоматски споено мислење:
Еве и малку контекст за интересите на западните.
How political West benefits from Nagorno-Karabakh escalation
The Azeri side decided to escalate mere days after a meeting with US State Secretary Anthony Blinken.
infobrics.org
The latest escalation is the first one since March when Azeri attacks claimed the lives of at least three Armenian soldiers. This wouldn't be the first time Azerbaijan is accusing Armenia of attacking its troops. Given the rather difficult position of both Armenia proper and Artsakh, it's unclear why they would want to escalate against Baku, given the clear superiority of Azeri forces in the last several years. Azerbaijan is most likely trying to provide yet another pretext to resume its offensive in the region, especially now when Russia is preoccupied with its counteroffensive against NATO aggression in Europe.
It's quite clear Azerbaijan is trying to use the current geopolitical situation to fulfill its long-term goal of capturing the entire territory of the Armenian-populated Artsakh. However, this would require Baku to effectively go against Russia's interests. Moscow has warned Azerbaijan against escalating the conflict any further. Despite the successful geopolitical game Azeri leadership has been playing for years, balancing between the Eurasian giant to the north, Turkey and the political West, this is reaching its high point and Moscow is highly unlikely to allow further attacks. Back in March, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu warned Baku that the Russian military is more than capable of conducting large-scale operations in multiple theaters, clearly implying that no unilateral Azeri action will be tolerated. Baku complied and halted its attacks.
However, in late July, both Armenian and Azeri delegations visited the United States and met with the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. While there is no way for us to know what exactly the US political leadership told either side, apart from the usual diplomatic statements of "hopes for peace", the very fact that the Azeri side decided to escalate the situation mere days after the visit is quite telling. It certainly is in the interest of the belligerent imperialist thalassocracy to see any kind of escalation in the former USSR, especially in areas where Russian troops are directly deployed, as this would divert Moscow's attention away from Ukraine. American intelligence assets have been reactivated all across the former Eastern Bloc to do exactly that, be it Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Serbia/former Yugoslavia, etc.
An escalating conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh would also benefit the US in the sense that it would further undermine relations between Russia and Turkey. Although both countries have been maintaining a sort of "Frankensteinish" geopolitical partnership, compartmentalizing their diametrically opposing interests in one region with converging interests in another, in the long-term, Moscow and Ankara are bound to clash. Erdogan's attempts to create a combination of a Turkic and Islamic world dominated by Turkey go directly against the interests of Russia, Iran, Syria and other global and regional powers. The political West quietly supports Turkey in this endeavor, or at the very least is not against it. Erdogan's imperialist fantasies are perfectly positioned to undermine the long-term goal of creating a stable Eurasia, composed of powers such as Russia, India, China, Iran and others.
By having Azerbaijan capture most, if not all of Artsakh, the US accomplishes the goal of having Armenia proper effectively surrounded by hostile countries. Given the sheer belligerence of Turkey and its ally in Baku, it's highly likely they'd try to attack Armenia itself, which would both eliminate it as a state and allow the Turkic countries uninterrupted access to each other, as well as open the gates of Central Asia for Ankara. To accomplish this, not even the whole of Armenia has to be taken. All Turkey and Azerbaijan need is Armenia's southern Syunik province. Given that Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a NATO-like security alliance led by Russia which also includes a number of post-Soviet states, this would force Moscow to react.
Such a move wouldn't only push Russia into another conflict, but could possibly shake the very foundations of CSTO itself, as countries like Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Belarus would also need to respond to Yerevan's call for collective defense. Russia couldn't simply ignore Armenia's fate, as any sort of Turkey's direct, uninterrupted access to Azerbaijan and further east, to Central Asia, would be even worse for Russia's interests and strategic security on its entire southern flank, from the south Caucasus to China.
Последно уредено:
Vanlok
deus ex machina
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Pashinyan doubles down on his suicidal tilt toward increasingly impotent West
French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna stated that
infobrics.org
Is Pashinyan the new Saakashvili?
The unflattering fate of Saakashvili should serve as a stark warning to Pashinyan. Perhaps he should take some lessons from one of Saakashvili's more successful successors, namely Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili who correctly understood that NATO expansion in the former Soviet Union is...
infobrics.org
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Red Devil
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Председник Азербејџана Илхам Алијев оптужио је Француску за припрему новог рата на Јужном Кавказу!
Француска спроводи милитаристичку политику, наоружавајући Јерменију, подстичући реваншистичке снаге у Јерменији, припремајући терен за покретање нових ратова у нашем региону", наводи се у обраћању.
Раније је Француска предала Јерменији део војне технике намењене Украјини. Поред тога, Париз жели да Јеревану обезбеди кредит за куповину система противваздушне одбране..
Овој Алиев сигурно го одјебал Макрон кога просеше за гас
Француска спроводи милитаристичку политику, наоружавајући Јерменију, подстичући реваншистичке снаге у Јерменији, припремајући терен за покретање нових ратова у нашем региону", наводи се у обраћању.
Раније је Француска предала Јерменији део војне технике намењене Украјини. Поред тога, Париз жели да Јеревану обезбеди кредит за куповину система противваздушне одбране..
Овој Алиев сигурно го одјебал Макрон кога просеше за гас