There’s a lot of speculation that the German government will fall, but I’ve seen this story play out in Italy before. The coalition could fail and the President Frank-Walter Steinmeyer, a Davos man through and through, will refuse to sanction new elections and should force the parties to cobble together a new technocratic government that will be indistinguishable in policy from the existing one.
Since the Greens are embedded in nearly every state delegations to the German Bundesrat (upper house) there will be no real policy change since they control what legislation actually gets passed.
This is why Scholz is so weak.
Since each state in the Bundesrat votes as a bloc, the Greens control 41 of the 69 votes there, giving them effective control over policy. This was Merkel’s greatest achievement while Chancellor while also bamboozling Putin in to thinking the Minsk agreements were something other than a time-waster while NATO built and trained the Ukrainian army his men are now pummeling into dust.
This is what she set up with each of the state governments, by refusing any AFD coalitions to form in any state, she ensured that no matter what happened, there would be no challenge to the Greens revolution of Germany’s legislative agenda.
Davos is setting up the failure of the German government to hand it to Brussels. So, if the German government fails and Steinmeyer refuses to go for new elections, then the resultant caretaker government will be even weaker than Scholz’ government and ensure the complete betrayal of the German people to the EU.
And the worst part will be that they will still feel like they have control over what happens to them next because the German people are still told they control EU policy at the top.
When in reality all that will happen is the EU will fracture along capital efficiency lines and the euro will drive it into bankruptcy, forcing real political fracturing. Eastern Europe will break off the moment the EU tries to enforce the energy embargo on Russia, especially if Russia gains Odessa and access to the Danube river system. Watch Bulgaria carefully as the next Soros-backed junta to fall completely to the economic reality of a dying EU.