Vanlok
deus ex machina
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Потсетување:
A short note tonight on something I realized today: just how much the war in Ukraine is diverging from Western expectations and war plans.
As near as I can tell, the West's plan going in was to sanction Russia into submission while stoking an insurgency in western Ukraine.
This should have created a near-ideal situation (for NATO anyways) of the Russian economy collapsing from sanctions while their troops struggled against an intransigent Galician insurgency, leading ultimately to domestic unrest, Putin's ouster, and an end to the Russian threat.
This was a campaign that NATO "should" have been able to conduct safely and easily. Insurgencies require minimal supplies, the economic strength of the West would weather any side-effects of the sanctions regime, and this would always remain "short of war."
...and hence NATO's armies would have to do very little beyond deter a desperate Russian lunge and be prepared to move into Ukraine and, should circumstances so provide, a balkanized Russia as peacekeepers after the final collapse.
In the actual event, the precise opposite of this has happened. Ukraine has stayed on its feet, but turned into a black hole for Western money and arms. Meanwhile sanctions have boomeranged, leaving Russia largely unharmed while devastating Western economies.
I can only explain this result - and the fact that NATO leadership went into this war with the expectations they did and a "straight face" - as a near-total failure to evaluate the threat (and even "friendly forces") properly and then plan realistically in light of that.
Something to think about the next time you hear someone talking about how the war hasn't turned out according to Russian expectations - they've got a much better track record than NATO does thus far. /end
Addendum: The NATO plan was obviously terrible, by the way - it was basically:
Step 1: Sanctions!
Step 2: Give NLAWs and Stingers to insurgents in Europe!
Step 3: ???
Step 4: Victory!
Look, if someone gave me a plan like this and suggested we use it, I would tell him no.
Thread by @ArmchairW on Thread Reader App
@ArmchairW: A short note tonight on something I realized today: just how much the war in Ukraine is diverging from Western expectations and war plans. As near as I can tell, the West's plan going in was...…
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