Војна во Украина (исклучиво воена перспектива)

Vanlok

deus ex machina
Член од
30 мај 2009
Мислења
26.202
Поени од реакции
34.788
Автоматски споено мислење:



 
Последно уредено:
Член од
14 ноември 2013
Мислења
7.333
Поени од реакции
23.063
Situation on Pokrovsk front: Russian Army took full control over Zhuravka & began attacking the locality of Krutyi Yar. In addition, Russian forces advanced southwest of Nikolaevka & captured a series of fortifications adjacent to M30 road, which is now under fire control now. Moreover, troops captured most of Novozhelanne & its northern outskirts (Clashes with Ukrainian Army are taking place at the school 39, which is the last part of the locality under Ukrainian control).

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Situation on Luhansk front: Russian Army reentered again in the northern part of Makiivka.

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Vanlok

deus ex machina
Член од
30 мај 2009
Мислења
26.202
Поени од реакции
34.788




Автоматски споено мислење:

 
Последно уредено:
Член од
23 мај 2019
Мислења
4.499
Поени од реакции
5.234
војна онаква каква што не се гледа на “хОливудските“ остварувања и каде што секогаш победуваат избраните...

 
Член од
14 ноември 2013
Мислења
7.333
Поени од реакции
23.063
Situation southwest of Donetsk: During the last three days Russian Army captured new positions in the direction of T-05-24 crossing the road & reached Mylnyi Pond southeast of Vodiane. In addition, Russian forces captured Yuzhno-Donbasskaya mine Air supply shaft 1 north of Mykil's'ke.

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Situation on Ocheretyne front: During the last 36 hours Russian Army took control over the localities of Krutyi Yar, Novozhelanne & Zavitne. In addition, the localities of Mezhove & Skuchne were taken too by Russian forces following the capture of the eastern shore of Vovcha river in this sector after the withdrawal of Ukrainian Army.

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Situation on Toretsk front: Russian Army took control over the town of Niu-York & entered in the first houses of Nepilivka. In addition, Russian forces took full control over the Electrical Substation southwest of Zalizne. Following Ukrainian Army withdrawal some days ago, the last section of 2014 defense line was taken by Russian troops, thus leveling the frontline.

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Situation south of Bakhmut: Russian Army took control over new positions south of Ivanivske.

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Situation on Luhansk front: During the last 24 hours Russian Army increased its control over Makiivka (About 55% of the locality is under Russian control now).

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Situation on northeastern front: During the last 6 days Russian Army increased the buffer zone around Pishchane by taking a series of positions northwest & southwest of the locality.

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Vanlok

deus ex machina
Член од
30 мај 2009
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26.202
Поени од реакции
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Целата нишка (ама подобро е на твитер да се чита, пошто има видеа):


Anatomy of a Fiasco: The Bridge at Glushkovo

Late last week the Ukrainian command, seeing their offensive in Sudzha-Koronevo bog down, tried to expand the flanks of their salient into Russian territory in Kursk. Part of this was an attack on the Glushkovo district to the west.Image
The Glushkovo District is somewhat isolated from the Russian interior by the Seim River.

Having learned the wrong lessons from their 2022 counteroffensive in Kherson, the AFU command decided to try to induce a wholesale Russian withdrawal by attacking the bridges over the Seim.Image
The large road bridge at Glushkovo, the district center, would be their first target. As in Kherson two years ago, HIMARS fired on the bridge with GMLRS. As in Kherson two years ago, it was ineffective.

Unlike in Kherson two years ago, the Russians killed the HIMARS launcher.
Image

That was Thursday afternoon. Undeterred, the Ukrainians pulled up two more HIMARS launchers and fired on the bridge again on Thursday night, potholing the span further and probably rendering it temporarily unusable.

The Russians killed those launchers too.

Image


Still determined to down the bridge, the Ukrainians ordered up an airstrike. One of their MiG-29s hit the bridge with glide bombs, finally dropping the damaged span into the river.

The Russians tracked its return flight and killed it while it was refueling in Dnipropetrovsk.


But with the bridge down (and another one of the three damaged), presumably the Ukrainians were good to go - the Russian troops in the district were now isolated.

Right?

Well, no, because - plot twist - the district isn't actually isolated. There's no large river to the east.Image
Of course the Ukrainians had a plan to deal with this. They aren't stupid. They ordered an attack into the area to seal off the open flank and trap the defenders against the river.

That attack resulted in the largest mass surrender of Ukrainian troops seen in Kursk to date.
As for the bridge, the Russians had a pontoon crossing up within hours to replace it. One which the AFU seems to have decided against trying to attack for now.

And for the moment, the Glushkovo District remains firmly in Russian hands.

Thanks @Malazan_enjoyer for the image.Image
• • •
 
Член од
14 ноември 2013
Мислења
7.333
Поени од реакции
23.063
Situation on Kursk front:
- At Korenevsky axis Ukrainian Army recaptured Snagost & captured Apanasovka & Byakhovo.
- At Sudzhansky axis Ukrainian forces captured Russkoe Porechnoe. The locality of Dmitriukov was also confirmed under Ukrainian control. Meanwhile, combats with Russian Army are taking place in Martynovka, which is contested.
- At Glushkovsky axis Ukrainian forces entered in Otruba following Russian withdrawal to the eastern shore of Seim River.

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Член од
14 ноември 2013
Мислења
7.333
Поени од реакции
23.063
Situation on northern fronts: During the last three days Russian Army entered again in the northern dachas of Lyptsi & west of Hlyboke.

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Situation on eastern front: Russian Army advanced along the railway towards Vyimka taking control over the trainstation. On the other hand, map corrections were made at Ivano-Darivka. Unable to take the adjacent hills (under the control of Ukrainian Army) Russian forces eventually withdrew from the settlement.

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Последно уредено:
Член од
14 ноември 2013
Мислења
7.333
Поени од реакции
23.063
Situation on Kursk front:
- At Korenevsky axis Ukrainian Army took control over Vishnevka.
- At Sudzhansky axis Ukrainian forces captured most of the locality of Martynovka.
Clashes with Russian Army continue in the rest of the front without changes.

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Situation on Toretsk front: Russian Army took control over the ruins of Artyom Mine & the adjacent terrikons & dachas north of Zalizne.

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Situation on Pokrovsk front: Russian Army took full control over the northern part of Karlivka & reached the Spillway of Karlivske Reservoir. In addition, Russian forces captured a series of trench systems around Kotlyarevskaya Mine & its terrikon, where clashes with Ukrainian Army are taking place now.

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Situation southwest of Donetsk: During the last week Russian Army continued advancing inside Kostyantynivka reaching the center of the locality.

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Член од
14 ноември 2013
Мислења
7.333
Поени од реакции
23.063
Situation east of Chasov Yar: During the last three weeks the situation around the town suffered minimal changes with Russian Army making small advances along the streets of Lisova & Kvitkova while Ukrainian Army recovering areas adjacent to Novy district & trying to consolidate in the trench line along the canal.

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Член од
14 ноември 2013
Мислења
7.333
Поени од реакции
23.063
Situation on Toretsk front: During the last four days Russian Army took control over the northern part of Pivnichne until Korolenka street. Combing operations are taking place in the last area of the town. Meanwhile, clashes with Ukrainian Army continue at Mikroraion 1 in Toretsk city.

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Situation on Pokrovsk front: Russian Army took control over the locality of Komyshivka & began attacking Ptyche (combats with Ukrainian Army are taking place there). Also troops began advancing south of Zavitne. In addition, Russian forces advanced along the railway & M-30 road taking control over a series of positions at the southeastern outskirts of Novohrodivka. Moreover, small advance was made by Russians inside Hrodivka at Michurina street.

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Situation on Kursk front:
- At Korenevsky axis Ukrainian army is gradually establishing itself on the outskirts of Korenevo. Attacks reached the streets of the town, but were eventually repelled by Russian forces..
- At Sudzhansky axis Ukrainian forces captured the locality of Agronom & attacked the adjacent Russkaya Konopelka, where the attack was repelled by Russian troops. In addition, Ukrainian troops continue increasing the area around Martynovka to secure the locality.
Clashes with Russian Army continue in the rest of the front without changes.

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Situation southwest of Donetsk: Russian Army advanced west of Paraskoviivka reaching ‘Shakhtar’ Garden association north of Kostyantynivka.

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jamajka

mode: Calm
Член од
28 април 2007
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Поени од реакции
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Иначе Крепост му е името на Украинската офанзива во Курск.


By creating a front within Russia itself, the Ukrainians have voluntarily accepted a long and exposed logistical tail, while fighting within the shadow of Russia’s own base of material support. The results have been largely disastrous thus far. A running total of 96 strikes on Ukrainian vehicles and positions have been recorded and geolocated in Kursk thus far, and Ukrainian vehicles losses are on par with the opening weeks of the Ukrainian offensive at Robotyne last summer.

Unlike Robotyne, however, there is not even a strong theoretical case to be made for incurring heavy losses on this axis of advance. Even a generous sketch of the coming weeks leaves Ukraine at an impasse in Kursk. Suppose they push through to the Seim and force the Russians to abandon the southern bank, capture Korenevo, and carve out a 120 kilometer front in Kursk - what then? Is this a fair trade for the Toretsk-New York agglomeration, or Pokrovsk, where the Russians continue to steadily advance?

Krepost thus threatens to turn into another Volchansk, or Krinky - an isolated attrition pit disconnected from the crucial axes of the war. Control over Sudzha does not exert any leverage over Russia’s ability to sustain the fight in the Donbas or around Kharkov, but it does create another vacuum that will suck in precious Ukrainian resources, banging away on a road to nowhere. If you had suggested a month ago that the Russians could contrive a way to draw off and pin the maneuver elements of no less than five Ukrainian mechanized brigades, along with a variety of disparate support elements, this would have been viewed as a beneficial move for them - yet this is precisely what the AFU has voluntarily done with Krepost.

Krepost ultimately reflects a growing Ukrainian frustration with the trajectory of the war in the east, where the AFU has grown weary of the industrial slugfest with its bigger and more powerful neighbor. By flinging a secretly assembled mechanized package at a lightly defended and previously ancillary sector of front, they briefly managed to reopen mobile operations, but the window of mobility was far too small and the gains far too meager. It has now become clear that the decision to divert forces to Kursk has undermined the already precarious defense of the Donbas. Ukraine hold Sudzha and may very well clear the south bank of the Seim, but if it comes at the expense of Pokrovsk and Toretsk, that is a trade that the Russian Army will be happy to make.

The AFU is expending carefully husbanded and scarce resources in the pursuit of operationally inconsequential objectives. The exhilaration of taking the fight to Russia and being on the attack again can certainly work wonders for morale and create a spectacle for western backers, but the effect is short lived - like a broke man gambling away his last dollar, all for the momentary thrill of chance.
 

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