Војна во Украина (исклучиво воена перспектива)

[Gags]

Situation on Kursk front:
- At Korenevsky axis Ukrainian Army continues to expand its presence in the eastern and southern outskirts of Korenevo. In addition, Ukrainian forces entered Komarovka and Krasnooktyabrskoe. On the other hand, the area north of Kremyanoe and Kruglen'koe was cleared, leaving areas under Ukrainian control.
- At Sudzhansky axis Ukrainian forces took Kolmakov and entered Russkaya Konopelka where fighting with Russian forces ensued. Meanwhile, Russian army managed to restore full control over Nechaev after eliminating Ukrainian troops on its southern outskirts.



Situation on Toretsk front: Russian Army continue advancing in Druzhba beyond School Nº7. In addition, the area east of the water canal & south of Ozarianivka was secured by Russian forces too.



Situation on Pokrovsk front: Russian Army took control over third of Hrodivka. In addition, Russian forces advanced southwest of Orlivka & along the railway thus reaching the first buildings of Novogrodivka. Moreover, Russian troops advanced south of Nikolaevka, Zavitne & Komyshivka. Clashes with Ukrainian Army reached the first dachas of Kalynove, while combats continue at Ptyche.



Situation on Zaporizhia: Russian Army reentered in Luhivske (The locality was taken by Ukrainian Army during the offensive of summer 2023 & lately was vacated).



Situation north of Chasov Yar: Russian Army took control over new positions north of Kalinivna.

 

[Vanlok]

...

Како и секогаш добра анализа од Серж... Порано ќе кажев штета што не читаат вакви работи the usual suspects како @Human @Ne_sum_ja @Menethil итн, сега ми е јасно дека свесно игнорираат реалност.

Некои работи за издвојување:

If we take these claims at face value, we perhaps have arrived at the strategic intention of Krepost. If Ukraine indeed intends to occupy a swathe of Kursk Oblast and use it to bargain for the return of prewar Ukrainian territory in the Donbas, then we must ask the obvious question: have they lost their minds?

Such a plan would instantly founder on two insurmountable problems. The first of these would be an obvious misread of the relative value of the chips on the table. The Donbas - the heart of Russia’s war aims - is a highly urbanized region of nearly seven million inhabitants, which - along with Russian annexed Zaporozhia and Kherson - forms a critical strategic link to Crimea and grants Russia control over the Sea of Azov and much of the Black Sea littoral. The idea that the Kremlin would consider walking away from its aims here simply to bloodlessly recover a few small towns in southwestern Kursk is, in a word, lunacy. It would, in the luminary words of President Trump, be “the worst trade deal in the history of trade deals.”


Понатаму:

By creating a front within Russia itself, the Ukrainians have voluntarily accepted a long and exposed logistical tail, while fighting within the shadow of Russia’s own base of material support. The results have been largely disastrous thus far. A running total of 96 strikes on Ukrainian vehicles and positions have been recorded and geolocated in Kursk thus far, and Ukrainian vehicles losses are on par with the opening weeks of the Ukrainian offensive at Robotyne last summer.

Unlike Robotyne, however, there is not even a strong theoretical case to be made for incurring heavy losses on this axis of advance. Even a generous sketch of the coming weeks leaves Ukraine at an impasse in Kursk. Suppose they push through to the Seim and force the Russians to abandon the southern bank, capture Korenevo, and carve out a 120 kilometer front in Kursk - what then? Is this a fair trade for the Toretsk-New York agglomeration, or Pokrovsk, where the Russians continue to steadily advance?

Krepost thus threatens to turn into another Volchansk, or Krinky - an isolated attrition pit disconnected from the crucial axes of the war. Control over Sudzha does not exert any leverage over Russia’s ability to sustain the fight in the Donbas or around Kharkov, but it does create another vacuum that will suck in precious Ukrainian resources, banging away on a road to nowhere. If you had suggested a month ago that the Russians could contrive a way to draw off and pin the maneuver elements of no less than five Ukrainian mechanized brigades, along with a variety of disparate support elements, this would have been viewed as a beneficial move for them - yet this is precisely what the AFU has voluntarily done with Krepost.


Krepost ultimately reflects a growing Ukrainian frustration with the trajectory of the war in the east, where the AFU has grown weary of the industrial slugfest with its bigger and more powerful neighbor. By flinging a secretly assembled mechanized package at a lightly defended and previously ancillary sector of front, they briefly managed to reopen mobile operations, but the window of mobility was far too small and the gains far too meager. It has now become clear that the decision to divert forces to Kursk has undermined the already precarious defense of the Donbas. Ukraine hold Sudzha and may very well clear the south bank of the Seim, but if it comes at the expense of Pokrovsk and Toretsk, that is a trade that the Russian Army will be happy to make.

Автоматски споено мислење: 23 август 2024

ORBAT и Kampfgruppen

Very soon after Krepost began, the Ukrainian ORBAT began to materialize in a jumbled mess. The basic problem, to put it in the most elementary terms, is that there are far too many brigades represented in the operation. There are currently no less than five mechanized brigades (22nd, 54th, 61st, 88th, 116th), a territorial defense brigade (103rd), two Air Assault Brigades (80th and 82nd) and a variety of attached battalions - something like a dozen total brigade equivalents. To put it bluntly, there are very clearly not twelve brigades (30,000 personnel) in this section of front - we have a puzzle on our hands.

The mysterious ORBAT grows ever moreso when one considers the astonishing variety of vehicles that have been spotted (and destroyed) in Kursk. The list includes at minimum the following assets:

• KrAZ Cougar
• Senator
• Oshkosh M-ATV
• Kozak-2
• Bushmaster
• Maxxpro MRAP
• Stryker
• BTR-60M
• BTR 70/80
• VAB
• Marder 1A3
• T-64
• BAT-2
• BREM-1
• Ural 4320
• AHS Krab
• Buk
• M777
• Grad
• 2S1 Gvodzika
• 2k22 Tunguska
• 2S7 Pion
• M88AS2 Hercules
• BMP1
• PT-91
• BTR-4E
• MTLB

That is a long list. But what does it mean?

There is a disconnect between the number of brigades and different vehicle types identified in Kursk and the actual size of the AFU grouping. What this suggests is that the Ukrainians stripped down the motor pools from a variety of different brigades and concentrated them in a strike package to attack Kursk, rather than deploying these brigades as such.

The situation would appear to be highly similar to the Second World War German practice of forming Kampfgruppen, or Battle Groups. As the Wehrmacht became more and more overstretched, German commanders became accustomed to forming improvised formations comprised of sub-units stripped from the line as necessary: take an infantry battalion from this division, steal a dozen panzers from that division, commandeer a battery from that regiment, and voila: you have a Kampfgruppe.

In the voluminous masses of World War Two literature, Kamfgruppen were often taken as evidence of Germany’s wonderful improvisational powers, and the ability of their cool-headed commanders to scrape together fighting power from threadbare resources. There’s nothing specifically incorrect about that, but this tends to miss the larger point - Kampfgruppe did not become a phenomenon until late in the war, when Germany was losing, and their regular order of battle (ORBAT) was becoming shredded. Cobbling together mutant formations can help you stave off disaster, but it is not a superior option to deploying organic brigades as such.

We appear to have a Ukrainian Kampfgruppe in Kursk, with elements of a variety of different brigades - bringing with them a whole hodgepodge of different vehicles - forming a grouping that is likely not more than 7-8,000 men. Above and beyond the progress that they are making in Kursk, this does not suggest anything good about the state of the AFU. To launch this offensive, they had to strip down units that were actively fighting in the Donbas and rapidly shuttle them to Sumy to accumulate in an improvised strike group. It is a threadbare grouping for a threadbare army.

 

[Gags]

Situation on Pokrovsk front: Russian Army took full control over Ptyche & continue advancing south of Zavitne. In addition, Russian forces managed to enter in new parts of Novogrodivka along the streets of Haharina & Michurina from east & southeast.

 

[Gags]

Situation on Toretsk front: During the last two days Russian Army took control over most of Mikroraion 1 in Toretsk city with combats taking place along Kachalova street.



Situation south of Bakhmut: Russian Army took control over a series of fortifications northwest of Klishchiivka.



Situation on Luhansk front: Ukrainian Army managed to recapture a series of positions at the western shore of Zerebets river & adjacent to the locality of Novovodyane.



Situation on northeastern front: During the last four days Russian Army captured new positions northwest of Pishchane.



Situation on Kursk front:
- At Korenevsky axis Ukrainian Army made new advances around Krasnooktyabr'skoe, Vishnevka & Apanasovka reaching Seym river from this direction. On the other hand, the area north of Kremyanoe and Kruglen'koe was rectified showing the following situation: Sheptukhovka, Skrylevka, Varvarovka, Kalinov & Vetreno under Russian Army control, while Durovka & Zhebolovka remains under Ukrainian control. The locality of Zhuravli is contested or completely empty.
Clashes between both sides continue in the rest of the front without changes.

 

[Gags]

Situation southwest of Donetsk: During the last 36 hours Russian Army captured a series of positions between the localities of Pobjeda & Paraskoviivka.



Situation west of Donetsk city: During the last week Russian Army secured again the farm southwest of the town of Krasnogorivka.



Situation northwest of Donetsk city: During the last two days Russian Army restarted the advances around Karlivka & managed to capture new dachas in the outskirts of the locality & the first houses inside it.



Situation on Pokrovsk front: Russian Army made new advances south and southeast of Ptyche aproaching to Kalynove. In addition, Russian forces expanded their control inside to the streets of Likarniana, Parkova, Molodizhna & Tsentralna (places such as Kindergarten 16 & Snezhinka, Holy Protection Church & several high buildings were taken). Moreover, Russian troops entered in the first houses of Krasnyi Yar & advanced south of Hrodivka.



Situation on Toretsk front: Russian Army entered in Toretsk city from a new axis that allowed troops to capture "Dzerzhinsk City TB Dispensary" & the School Nº2 in Zabalka district.



Situation on eastern front: During the last four days Russian Army expanded their control over the railway & Vyimka trainstation from north & west.



Situation on Kursk front:
- At Sudzhansky axis Russian Army recaptured the locality of Spal'noe.
Clashes with Russian Army continue in the rest of the front without changes.

 

[Vanlok]

 

[gjoko-mkd]

Во Париз е уапсен Дуров, основачот на Телеграм апликацијата. Мислам дека ова има многу врска со војната во Украина, и една од точките на обвинението е ,,неспремност за соработка со службите за безбедност,, т.е. да пеее за каналот и да ги даде шифрите за надзор

Dejan Beric

Француски медији пишу да је Павел Дуров, власник Телеграма, задржан на аеродрому Ле Бурже када је стигао приватним авионом из Азербејџана. Са њим су били телохранитељ и жена. ТВ канал ТФ1 преноси да је бизнисмен стављен на савезну потерницу. Наводно је био предмет француског налога за претрес...

t.me

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Во Париз е уапсен Дуров, основачот на Телеграм апликацијата. Мислам дека ова има многу врска со војната во Украина, и една од точките на обвинението е ,,неспремност за соработка со службите за безбедност,, т.е. да пеее за каналот и да ги даде шифрите за надзор

Dejan Beric

Француски медији пишу да је Павел Дуров, власник Телеграма, задржан на аеродрому Ле Бурже када је стигао приватним авионом из Азербејџана. Са њим су били телохранитељ и жена. ТВ канал ТФ1 преноси да је бизнисмен стављен на савезну потерницу. Наводно је био предмет француског налога за претрес...

t.me

Па сите го бараат типчево, и Русија исто така. Мислам дека погрешна му била идејата да се движи во држави кои го бараат или кои би го екстрадирале некаде.

 

[Gags]

Situation on Pokrovsk front: Russian Army made new advances at the western shore of Karlivske Reservoir & northwest of Kalynove. In addition, Russian forces reached the city council of Novogrodivka & the market.



Situation on Toretsk front: Russian Army advanced west of the Terrikon of Pivnichne taking control over a series of dachas & positions in the forest adjacent to Toretsk city.



Situation on Chasov Yar front: During the last four days Russian Army expanded their control in Novy district along Sierova & Nedohybchenka streets.



Situation on Kursk front:
- At Sudzhansky axis Russian Army recaptured the locality of Borki & parts of the border with Ukraine. Meanhwile, clashes with Ukrainian Army continue around Russkaya Konopel'ka.

 

[Gags]

Situation on Pokrovsk front: Russian Army made new advances southeast of Kalynove & began surrounding the locality. In addition, Russian forces entered in Kotlyarevskaya mine while other troops took control over most of the central part of Novogrodivka (about 40% of the town is under Russian control now) & its northeastern outskirts. Moreover, Russians made new advances at the southern outskirts of Hrodivka.



Situation on Toretsk front: Russian Army increased the control over the dachas east of Toretsk city. On the other hand, Russian forces managed to capture a series of trenches at the western shore of canal south of Ozarianivka.



Situation on Kursk front: At Korenevsky axis Russian Army recaptured the localities of Zhebolovka & Durovka & reentered in Olgovka, where clashes with Ukrainian forces are taking place. In addition, the situation of Zhuravli was clarified as the village is under Russian control too. On the other hand, Ukrainian Army made small advances around Malaya Loknya.

 

[Gags]

Situation southwest of Donetsk: Russian Army took control over the southern outskirts of Kostyantynivka & its warehouses & cemetery. In addition, Russian forces captured the trench system located at T-05-24 road in the direction of Vodyane.

 

[Gags]

Situation on Kursk front:
- At Korenevsky axis Ukrainian Army took full control over the locality of Krasnooktyabr'skoe & captured a series of positions west of Byakhovo & Vnezapnoe
- At Bolshesoldatsky axis Ukrainian forces made some advances at the outskirts of Nechaev.
- At Sudzhansky axis Ukrainian troops reentered again in the southern part of Borki where clashes with Russian Army are taking place.

 

[Gags]

Situation on northeastern front: during the last four days Russian Army made new advances southwest of Pishchane.



Situation on Pokrovsk front: Russian Army took full control over the locality of Kalynove & entered in Memryk thus cutting the last supply route to Karlivka. In addition, troops entered in Mykhailivka following the capture of Kotlyarevskaya mine & its terrikon. Moreover, Ukrainian Army withdrew from most of Novogrodivka as Russians captured 60% of the town. Meanwhile, new advances were made by Russian forces inside Krasnyi Yar & southwest of Novotoretske.



Situation west of Donetsk city: Russian Army made small advances northwest of Marinka.



Situation on Zaporizhia front: During the last week Russian Army took control over a series of positions east of Robotyne thus leveling the salient around the locality.

 

[Gags]

Situation on Kursk front:
- At Sudzhansky axis Ukrainian Army reentered & recaptured most of the locality of Russkaya Konopelka.
Clashes with Russian Army continue in the rest of the axis without significant changes.



Situation on Toretsk front: Russian Army took control over the rest of the dachas "Shakhtar" between Pivnichne & Toretsk city.



Situation on Pokrovsk front:
- Russian Army crossed Kazenyi Toretsk river taking control over positions between Myrolyubivka & Yelyzavetivka. In addition, Russian forces advanced in Hrodivka from north, south & east taking control over 65% of it. Ukrainian Army began the withdrawal from this town as Russian troops entered in Nikolaevka following the total capture of Krasnyi Yar & the terrikon of "Novogrodovskaya" mine (sector 3).
- The town of Novogrodivka is practically under Russian control. Combing operations remains at "Novogrodovskaya" mine (Sector 1 & 3). Moreover, the southern locality of Marynivka was also taken after the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces.
- Russian forces increased the control over Mykhailivka & entered in Korochenko mine, thus beginning the battle for Selydove. Meanwhile, troops captured completely the locality of Memryk & the surrounding trenches as well as the last trench system north of Karlivka reaching this locality from a second axis.



Situation southwest of Donetsk: Russian Army took full control over the locality of Kostyantynivka. In addition, Russian forces secured new areas along T-05-24 road.

 

[Gags]

Situation on northeastern front: Russian Army made new advances southwest of Pishchane. On the other hand, Ukrainian Army recaptured a series of positions northwest of Tabaivka.



Situation on Toretsk front: Russian Army made new advances inside Toretsk city reaching the industrial park, the construction materials plant and the prison.



In addition, Russian forces made small advances towards the locality of Panteleimonivka.



Situation on Pokrovsk front:
- Russian Army took control over all the positions inside Hrodivka at the eastern shore of Zhuravka river (about 80% of the town). In addition, the locality of Nikolaevka was taken along with the western fortifications.
- In Novogrodivka the "Novogrodovskaya" mine sector 1 was taken while Russian forces managed to enter in the northern part of Selydove (Park of Culture and Recreation, Bus Station, Avangard Stadium) following the full capture of Korochenko mine & its terrikon.



Situation southwest of Donetsk: Russian Army made new advances north of Mykil's'ke in the direction of "South-Donbassian" Mine & its Terrikon. Moreover, Russian forces restarted the axis of Pavlivka by taking control over a significant section west of this locality until Kashlahach river.