bucio
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Па да пошто сами на себе ќе си дадат дивиденда, пред да настани акција банка збира.
Општи економски анализи
- Креатор на темата bucio
- Време на започнување
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- Член од
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https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/03/25/bond-market-says-a-recession-is-coming-and-the-fed-will-cut-rates.html
Bond market says not only is a recession coming, but the Fed will cut interest rates to stop it
Patti Domm | @pattidomm
Published 1 Hour AgoCNBC.com
Getty Images
The bond market doubled down on scary warnings Monday, signaling both a possible recession is looming and that the Fed could have to cut interest rates this year to stop it.
"People are starting to get fearful," said Andrew Brenner of National Alliance. "It won't last for long, but they're getting fearful about a recession. You had a Fed that changed course 180 degrees and then added to it last week. That caught the market off guard."
The disconnect between stocks and bonds was fairly dramatic Monday, after the bond market flashed a recession warning Friday. The Dow traded as much as 100 points on both sides of unchanged Monday, but the bond market reflected a flight to safety trade, with yields falling across the curve from the shortest duration securities to the longest. The Dow ended up 16 at 25,516, while the S&P 500 fell 2 points, to 2,798.
The move was also global, with the German 10-year bund yield falling to a negative 0.3 percent.
At the same time, there was plenty of action in fed funds futures, where traders were betting on at least one 25 basis point cut from the Federal Reserve this year and more than two by next year. That's a big change from late last year, when the market was still expecting interest rate hikes and the Fed was forecasting three.
On Friday, markets were spooked when the yield curve inverted, a reliable recession signal though usually not an immediate one. That means the rate on a lower duration instrument rose above a longer duration security's yield. In this case, it was the yield on the 3-month bill, at 2.44 percent Monday, moving above the 10-year yield,which sank as low as 2.38 percent, a more than 2-year low. Yields move opposite price.
In another sign of angst, traders were also watching the 10-year yield Monday as it slid below 2.40 percent, about where the fed funds rate is. The 2-year, at 2.24 percent, was well below that level.
"The 10-year is inverted versus the current fed funds. It should signal expectations that rates are going to be lower in the future, which would be consistent with notable risk of a recession," said Jon Hill, U.S. fixed income strategist at BMO. "One of the fascinating things is the stock market is taking this in stride. The Fed is trying to extend this cycle as long as it can. Whether it will be enough is difficult to say."
View Related Chart
Source: Wilmington Trust
Hill said, however, he believes some of the moves in the market Monday were more about technical signals and short squeezes than real fear about recession. The Fed changed the tone in markets significantly Wednesday, when it was even more dovish than expected and cut its rate forecast to just one for this year from two.
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans also added to the move when he said on Monday that the Fed could hold or even loosen policy.
The Fed Wednesday released a new forecast for no rate hikes this year from two previously, but the market had been already been pricing in six basis points of an ease for this year. After the meeting, it moved to price in 19 additional basis points, or at least one 25 basis point cut this year, according to Hill.
"As far as recession goes, our economist feels quite optimistic that a recession will be avoided, at least this year. The market is focused not only on U.S. fundamentals but also on what's happening in China, what's happening in the rest of the world and how likely it is that political uncertainty, whether through trade policy or whatever, how likely is that to persist and beget a recession," said Mark Cabana, head of short U.S.rate strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Strategists said the curve inversion does not necessarily mean a recession is coming but it could. Stocks also historically have done fairly well immediately following such a move.
"As recession signals begin to flash and recession probabilities increase, I would expect market participants and people who deploy capital will become more cautious and there's a risk that it's a self-fulfilling prophecy," Cabana said.
Brenner said the 10-year yield is getting ahead of itself but for now it cold still go lower. He said the market was bracing for about $350 billion in new U.S. debt this week in both notes and bills.
"We have the cheapest rates in a long time. You're in the last week of a quarter plus it's Japanese year end. All the things that are affecting it aren't going to be affecting it next week," said Brenner.
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Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes
Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis
Data also provided by
© 2019 CNBC LLC. All Rights Reserved. A Division of NBCUniversal
Bond market says not only is a recession coming, but the Fed will cut interest rates to stop it
Patti Domm | @pattidomm
Published 1 Hour AgoCNBC.com
- Fed funds futures were pointing to a quarter point in easing Monday, as traders said scary signals continued to emanate from the bond market.
- On Friday, there was a so-called inversion in the yield curve, meaning very short rates rose above longer 10-year note rates, a fairly reliable recession signal.
- Traders say the bond market may be overreacting, while stocks seem to be ignoring the recession warnings and fears the Fed will have to jump in with one or more rate cuts to stop the economy from rolling over.
Getty Images
The bond market doubled down on scary warnings Monday, signaling both a possible recession is looming and that the Fed could have to cut interest rates this year to stop it.
"People are starting to get fearful," said Andrew Brenner of National Alliance. "It won't last for long, but they're getting fearful about a recession. You had a Fed that changed course 180 degrees and then added to it last week. That caught the market off guard."
The disconnect between stocks and bonds was fairly dramatic Monday, after the bond market flashed a recession warning Friday. The Dow traded as much as 100 points on both sides of unchanged Monday, but the bond market reflected a flight to safety trade, with yields falling across the curve from the shortest duration securities to the longest. The Dow ended up 16 at 25,516, while the S&P 500 fell 2 points, to 2,798.
The move was also global, with the German 10-year bund yield falling to a negative 0.3 percent.
At the same time, there was plenty of action in fed funds futures, where traders were betting on at least one 25 basis point cut from the Federal Reserve this year and more than two by next year. That's a big change from late last year, when the market was still expecting interest rate hikes and the Fed was forecasting three.
On Friday, markets were spooked when the yield curve inverted, a reliable recession signal though usually not an immediate one. That means the rate on a lower duration instrument rose above a longer duration security's yield. In this case, it was the yield on the 3-month bill, at 2.44 percent Monday, moving above the 10-year yield,which sank as low as 2.38 percent, a more than 2-year low. Yields move opposite price.
In another sign of angst, traders were also watching the 10-year yield Monday as it slid below 2.40 percent, about where the fed funds rate is. The 2-year, at 2.24 percent, was well below that level.
"The 10-year is inverted versus the current fed funds. It should signal expectations that rates are going to be lower in the future, which would be consistent with notable risk of a recession," said Jon Hill, U.S. fixed income strategist at BMO. "One of the fascinating things is the stock market is taking this in stride. The Fed is trying to extend this cycle as long as it can. Whether it will be enough is difficult to say."
View Related Chart
Source: Wilmington Trust
Hill said, however, he believes some of the moves in the market Monday were more about technical signals and short squeezes than real fear about recession. The Fed changed the tone in markets significantly Wednesday, when it was even more dovish than expected and cut its rate forecast to just one for this year from two.
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans also added to the move when he said on Monday that the Fed could hold or even loosen policy.
The Fed Wednesday released a new forecast for no rate hikes this year from two previously, but the market had been already been pricing in six basis points of an ease for this year. After the meeting, it moved to price in 19 additional basis points, or at least one 25 basis point cut this year, according to Hill.
"As far as recession goes, our economist feels quite optimistic that a recession will be avoided, at least this year. The market is focused not only on U.S. fundamentals but also on what's happening in China, what's happening in the rest of the world and how likely it is that political uncertainty, whether through trade policy or whatever, how likely is that to persist and beget a recession," said Mark Cabana, head of short U.S.rate strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Strategists said the curve inversion does not necessarily mean a recession is coming but it could. Stocks also historically have done fairly well immediately following such a move.
"As recession signals begin to flash and recession probabilities increase, I would expect market participants and people who deploy capital will become more cautious and there's a risk that it's a self-fulfilling prophecy," Cabana said.
Brenner said the 10-year yield is getting ahead of itself but for now it cold still go lower. He said the market was bracing for about $350 billion in new U.S. debt this week in both notes and bills.
"We have the cheapest rates in a long time. You're in the last week of a quarter plus it's Japanese year end. All the things that are affecting it aren't going to be affecting it next week," said Brenner.
VIEW THE FULL MOBILE SITE
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes
Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis
Data also provided by
© 2019 CNBC LLC. All Rights Reserved. A Division of NBCUniversal
Xibalba
Corona Australis
- Член од
- 24 јануари 2012
- Мислења
- 6.092
- Поени од реакции
- 11.497
https://grid.mk/c/cc_DLGoBmGY-kCSoOhPl/2019-04-17/tevdovski-opshtinite-da-go-zgolemat-danokot-na-imot
Министерот за финансии вели дека општините можат да ги зголемат приходите доколку го зголемат данокот на имот на граѓаните.
Иако имаат можност да соберат повеќе средства со данокот на имот за кој има можност од 0,1 до 0,3 отсто никоја од општините тоа не го прави. Поради борбата за гласови не ја зголемуваат најниската стапка и сите одат со 0,1 отсто, рече Драган Тевдовски одговарајќи на прашање на поранешниот градоначалник на Гостивар, Руфи Османи.
@StefusRefus Чисто да не се заебеш, па да инвестираш во недвижност.
Министерот за финансии вели дека општините можат да ги зголемат приходите доколку го зголемат данокот на имот на граѓаните.
Иако имаат можност да соберат повеќе средства со данокот на имот за кој има можност од 0,1 до 0,3 отсто никоја од општините тоа не го прави. Поради борбата за гласови не ја зголемуваат најниската стапка и сите одат со 0,1 отсто, рече Драган Тевдовски одговарајќи на прашање на поранешниот градоначалник на Гостивар, Руфи Османи.
@StefusRefus Чисто да не се заебеш, па да инвестираш во недвижност.
Almeida
поет, мрачна сила, гад
- Член од
- 15 февруари 2015
- Мислења
- 7.563
- Поени од реакции
- 19.993
Ако е по нешто познат сдс, тоа е по крвави даноци. Мала група после ужива у пуните буџети на институции, министерства, агенции, се ебава по путишта, кафани, купуе скупи коли...додека дпне спушта давачки и преку свои "бизнисмени" ги користи максимално поволностите и праи сиви пари....како и да свртиш, народ е ебан.
Познат министер за финансии беше Никола Поповски што создаваше суфицити од државни пари, у држава што нема основна инфраструктура и личи на Индија у 98% од територијата (по развиеност, не по физички контекст).
Со економско-финансиските ресори никогаш, буквално никогаш нема раководено асален кадар, све се просек накај катастрофа....Зоки кумашинот е пример за катастрофа, полтронство класично, а Тевдовски е горе-доле тука негде...остава впечаток дека тотално нема појма шо работи.
Познат министер за финансии беше Никола Поповски што создаваше суфицити од државни пари, у држава што нема основна инфраструктура и личи на Индија у 98% од територијата (по развиеност, не по физички контекст).
Со економско-финансиските ресори никогаш, буквално никогаш нема раководено асален кадар, све се просек накај катастрофа....Зоки кумашинот е пример за катастрофа, полтронство класично, а Тевдовски е горе-доле тука негде...остава впечаток дека тотално нема појма шо работи.
- Член од
- 28 август 2009
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Можеби не е прашањево за тука, ама па викам да не отворам тема, може ќе заврши некој работа..набрзина. Има ли некој од форумов регистриран/претплатен на КАПИТАЛ (kapital.com.mk) ? Доколку има, би го замолил ако ако не му е проблем, да ми ја препрати листата од топ 100 извозници за 2019 год. (едицијата излага 23 Мај).
Пиво частам не е фрка
Пиво частам не е фрка
- Член од
- 20 јули 2016
- Мислења
- 7.787
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- 5.063
- Член од
- 28 март 2006
- Мислења
- 17.840
- Поени од реакции
- 12.349
14,8% зголемен извозот во првите пет месеци
https://kapital.mk/14-8-zgolemen-izvozot-vo-prvite-pet-mesetsi/
Ако се гледа пак покриеноста, пак, на увозот со извозот само во мај таа е уште повисока и достигнува рекордни највисоки досега 78,4%.
зошто еу
https://kapital.mk/nad-84-od-makedonskiot-izvoz-vo-prvite-pet-mesetsi-bil-vo-evropskata-unija/
https://kapital.mk/14-8-zgolemen-izvozot-vo-prvite-pet-mesetsi/
Ако се гледа пак покриеноста, пак, на увозот со извозот само во мај таа е уште повисока и достигнува рекордни највисоки досега 78,4%.
зошто еу
https://kapital.mk/nad-84-od-makedonskiot-izvoz-vo-prvite-pet-mesetsi-bil-vo-evropskata-unija/
Последно уредено:
- Член од
- 12 март 2009
- Мислења
- 20.633
- Поени од реакции
- 16.845
Ова е за Германија, ама и ние преку економијата а и Еврото сме врзани како со папочна врвка ?
..не знам колку е сигурен овој српски веб сајт, но се работи за конкретна банка, мора и на друго место да го пишува ова..
http://webtribune.rs/ne-racunajte-vise-na-nemacku-ona-je-ucenjena-sa-30-000-milijardi-evra-evo-sta-se-desava/?fbclid=IwAR3PIJrcAeTK9iiAIYEYbDs7X8UWX26UdWP5TZTegq58IyLQC2W-ghRPE1Q
во нашиот Капитал исто нешто пишува, ама не за 30.000 милиiарди евра туку за
150 милиjарди евра... ама и тоа НЕ Е малку
https://kapital.mk/dojche-bank-na-evropskite-banki-itno-im-se-potrebni-150-milijardi-evra-za-spas/
..не знам колку е сигурен овој српски веб сајт, но се работи за конкретна банка, мора и на друго место да го пишува ова..
http://webtribune.rs/ne-racunajte-vise-na-nemacku-ona-je-ucenjena-sa-30-000-milijardi-evra-evo-sta-se-desava/?fbclid=IwAR3PIJrcAeTK9iiAIYEYbDs7X8UWX26UdWP5TZTegq58IyLQC2W-ghRPE1Q
во нашиот Капитал исто нешто пишува, ама не за 30.000 милиiарди евра туку за
150 милиjарди евра... ама и тоа НЕ Е малку
https://kapital.mk/dojche-bank-na-evropskite-banki-itno-im-se-potrebni-150-milijardi-evra-za-spas/
- Член од
- 22 февруари 2019
- Мислења
- 318
- Поени од реакции
- 309
штампањето пари пуштено на најјако....
As far as the percentage growth in total assets is concerned, there was no getting around the Federal Reserve in the first half of 2020:
+ 11.07% Swiss National Bank
+ 13.24% Bank of Japan
+ 34.98% European Central Bank
+ 36.39% Bank of England
+ 67.92% Federal Reserve
As far as the percentage growth in total assets is concerned, there was no getting around the Federal Reserve in the first half of 2020:
+ 11.07% Swiss National Bank
+ 13.24% Bank of Japan
+ 34.98% European Central Bank
+ 36.39% Bank of England
+ 67.92% Federal Reserve
- Член од
- 22 февруари 2019
- Мислења
- 318
- Поени од реакции
- 309
Вреди да се преслуша.
- Член од
- 22 февруари 2019
- Мислења
- 318
- Поени од реакции
- 309
Цените на храната највисоки во последните шест ипол години
Цените на храната во февруари се зголемија деветти месец по ред, достигнувајќи го највисокото ниво од јули 2014 година, поттикнато од поскапувањето на шеќерот и растителните масла, објави денеска Агенцијата за храна на Обединетите нации (ФАО). Цените на шеќерот скокнале поради загриженоста за...
Автоматски споено мислење:
- Член од
- 20 јули 2016
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Веројатен е брзо нов инфлаторен бран наскоро УС лонг терм бондс рејтс веќе реагираа.Цените на храната највисоки во последните шест ипол години
Цените на храната во февруари се зголемија деветти месец по ред, достигнувајќи го највисокото ниво од јули 2014 година, поттикнато од поскапувањето на шеќерот и растителните масла, објави денеска Агенцијата за храна на Обединетите нации (ФАО). Цените на шеќерот скокнале поради загриженоста за...skopjeinfo.mk
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