Right after Trump left Beijing, Putin is scheduled to visit China from May 19 to 20. According to internal Chinese Communist Party (CCP) sources, the main reason for Putin’s visit this time is that, after Russia’s refining capacity was severely damaged by Ukraine, he seeks to purchase refined oil from China, which has excess refining capacity. Russia will send its own crude oil to China and then buy back refined oil from China.
This information was revealed by
Du Wen
, a former CCP official, in today’s
YouTube live broadcast
. According to important internal intelligence Du Wen obtained, Cai Qi， the CCP’s de facto No. 2 figure and a top political aide to Xi Jinping, reported to Xi last November that China’s refined oil demand had already reached its peak in 2025, and China’s refined oil production capacity in 2025 had a surplus of 253 million tons.
Cai Qi proposed at the time to export this excess capacity overseas to create a new growth point for trade.
Meanwhile, Russia’s oil production capacity has been severely hit during the Russia-Ukraine war, and China’s channels for importing oil have also been seriously affected after the U.S. strikes on Venezuela and Iran.
Under these circumstances, it is expected that China and Russia will quickly reach an agreement on oil transactions.
Du Wen stated that the four major reasons for Putin’s eagerness to visit China are:
1. Putin Urgently Wants to Know What Trump and Xi Jinping Discussed
For example: Did Trump ask Xi Jinping to reduce economic support for Russia? Did he ask China to cooperate in pressuring Russia’s energy exports? Did he propose any Russia-Ukraine ceasefire plan? Did China give any hints or promises to the U.S.? Putin believes that as long as the U.S. makes concessions on trade, technology, and the Taiwan issue, the CCP might also make concessions on the Russia-Ukraine issue.
2. The CCP Wants to Show Russia and the World That It Will Not Neglect Russia Because of U.S.-China Easing
Du Wen said that China’s diplomatic strategy in 2026 can be summarized in one sentence: “Be close to the U.S. and Russia, cold toward Europe, and suppress Japan.”
China is currently under great economic pressure and naturally hopes to ease relations with the United States. The U.S. is the world’s largest market, and Xi Jinping cannot afford to lose the U.S. market under any circumstances. He also needs a breathing window.
However, the CCP will not abandon Russia — its strategic rear — just because it resumes communication with the United States. This is the essence of China-Russia relations.
The CCP does not necessarily truly like Russia, and Russia does not necessarily truly like the CCP. The CCP does not truly trust Russia, but both sides need each other. Russia needs China to buy its energy, provide it diplomatic space, offer it an economic backdoor, and promote the victory of great-power diplomacy domestically, etc.
3. Putin Wants CCP Support for a Russia–Ukraine Ceasefire Framework
The Russia-Ukraine war has now gone beyond simple battlefield gains and losses. Russia did not achieve the quick victory it initially envisioned, and Ukraine does not have the ability to completely drive Russia out in a short time.
Thus, the war has entered a very complex stalemate phase: fighting continues on the front lines, diplomacy begins to talk, energy facilities are bombed mutually, and everyone is scrambling for positions in the post-ceasefire landscape.
What is Putin most worried about? It is not the ceasefire itself. What Putin truly fears is that the ceasefire plan will be designed by others and Russia will be forced to accept it.
If the U.S. leads the ceasefire, Europe participates in security guarantees, Ukraine obtains long-term military aid, and China tacitly approves this framework behind the scenes, then Russia will be in great danger. Because this means that although Russia occupies some territory, it may be strategically locked down for a long time: sanctions will not be lifted, assets will not be unfrozen, Europe will rearm, and Ukraine will become the West’s forward base.
Therefore, Putin is coming to Beijing to seek Xi Jinping’s support on these issues:
- First, if a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire occurs, can the CCP recognize the security conditions proposed by Russia?
- Second, is the CCP willing to participate in post-war arrangements, such as rebuilding energy, infrastructure, and financial settlements?
- Third, if the U.S. demands Russia make concessions, will the CCP stand up to support Russia’s position?
- Fourth, if Europe continues to aid Ukraine, will the CCP continue to increase aid to Russia?
- If a so-called freezing of the front lines occurs in the future, will the CCP help Russia package this result as a so-called peaceful solution and Ukraine’s surrender?
This is one of the core purposes of Putin’s visit to China. He wants to ensure that the CCP does not stand by and watch the show, but continues to back Russia politically and economically.
4. The Most Important Reason: Oil Deals
Although Russia is a major energy power, crude oil and refined oil are two different concepts. Russia’s problem is not the lack of crude oil, but that its ability to process crude into refined products has been greatly reduced after its refineries were continuously attacked by Ukrainian drones.
Reuters reported on May 15 that, according to its calculations, Ukrainian drones attacked 16 Russian refineries from January to May this year, resulting in the loss of about 700,000 barrels of refining capacity.
In March, the primary refining units hit had a capacity close to 1 million barrels per day, and in April it exceeded that level. The scale is very large and has systematically weakened Russia’s refining system.
In this situation, China has become the key player. China has the opposite problem to Russia: excess refining capacity.
Over the past 20 years, China has frantically launched large-scale projects across the country, building massive refineries, petrochemical bases, and refined oil supply systems.
In November 2025, Cai Qi reported to Xi Jinping an important situation: China’s refined oil demand had reached its peak. China faces a serious problem of excess refining capacity.
Taking 2025 as an example, China’s excess refining capacity reached 250 million tons. If this excess capacity is not properly absorbed, the consequences will be very serious — not only factory shutdowns, equipment rust and damage, and huge economic losses, but also massive worker unemployment.
If this excess capacity can be converted into export capacity, it will create an annual foreign trade export scale of trillions, which will be a huge growth point for China’s exports.
The CCP initially targeted Europe, ASEAN countries, and Global South countries for exports, but did not consider Russia at the time because Russia was originally a net energy exporter.
However, due to the enhanced counter-attack capability of Ukraine and the U.S. strikes on Venezuela and Iran, China’s crude oil import capacity has been greatly weakened, and its refinery capacity has also been somewhat restricted.
As a result, the CCP had to implement quota management on refined oil exports.
Reuters reported in December last year that China had issued the first batch of refined oil export quotas for 2026, totaling about 19 million tons of gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel.
On April 29, Reuters reported again that China approved the export of 500,000 tons of fuel to regions outside Hong Kong in May — nearly three times the expected shipment volume in April, but still less than half of the same period last year.
This shows that compared with last year, China’s refined oil exports this year have been significantly reduced. This is because China lacks crude oil, not because its refining capacity is insufficient.
After the sudden changes in Venezuela and Iran, refineries faced a serious shortage of raw materials. China changed from a refined oil exporting country to a refined oil shortage country, and even experienced severe oil product shortages. Electricity prices surged in many places, especially in Guangdong, where the increase was particularly severe.
This is why Xi Jinping proposed the concepts of so-called “energy war” and “resource democracy” in March this year.
China’s Weakest Moment on Energy
Therefore, on the energy issue, China is currently at its weakest moment. China is a net oil importer. With oil supplies from the Middle East and South America cut off, it can currently only rely on Russia. If Russia at this time gritted its teeth and cut off oil to China as well, China would immediately fall into a desperate situation.
So the oil in Putin’s hands is now an important card for him.
China and Russia are connected by land, not only with oil pipelines but also with very convenient transportation of oil products by truck and train. The CCP desperately needs crude oil supply, and Putin desperately needs China to help Russia alleviate its refined oil crisis. This is exactly the perfect time for China and Russia to collude.
Of course, this collusion may not manifest as open large-scale import and export of gasoline and diesel, but rather as secret transactions, corporate contracts, equipment and parts, financial settlements, port transportation, third-country re-exports, and expanding purchases of Russian crude oil to provide Russia with cash flow. This is realpolitik.
Opportunity and Risk for Beijing
Du Wen said that among the above four points, the fourth point is the most easily overlooked by the outside world. Many people talking about China-Russia relations only discuss anti-Americanism, strategic partnerships, and great-power games, but ignore an important issue: war consumes oil, and China’s economic development and operation also need oil.
Therefore, after Russia’s refining capacity was largely destroyed by Ukraine, Putin naturally had to turn to China.
Today, the only country in the world with huge refining capacity, the political willingness to help Russia, and the ability to bypass the Western system is China.
For the CCP, this is both an opportunity and a risk.
From Beijing’s perspective, Putin’s visit is certainly an opportunity. The CCP can use this to show the United States: Don’t think that just because you came to Beijing once, China will abandon Russia. China still holds the Russia card.
China can also use Russia to check Europe. The more Europe focuses its energy on the Russia-Ukraine war, the harder it will be for it to deal with the CCP.
But at the same time, this is also a risk. If the CCP openly and massively helps Russia solve its refined oil crisis, the West will definitely target Chinese companies.
Especially if the fuel, equipment, and parts exported by China are proven to be directly used in Russia’s military and logistics, the U.S. and Europe are likely to expand secondary sanctions.
Therefore, the CCP may not openly and loudly purchase Russian crude oil. Beijing is more likely to adopt a “gray” approach: publicly talking about peace, cooperation, and normal trade, while in practice helping Russia relieve pressure through enterprises, border trade, third-country re-exports, settlements, equipment exports, etc.
This is the typical practice of CCP diplomacy: verbally neutral, betting in action, publicly talking about peace, and privately supporting Russia.
To the United States, it can say: “I did not participate in the war.”
To Russia, it will say: “I will not abandon you.”
Conclusion
In summary, Putin is not coming to Beijing this time to celebrate friendship, but to confirm whether Russia’s lifeline is still there.
This lifeline includes the political lifeline, diplomatic lifeline, war lifeline, and Russia’s energy lifeline.
If China continues to support Russia, Russia can still hold on. If China begins to waver, Russia’s strategic situation will immediately deteriorate.
Putin certainly understands this, so he must come in person.
For Xi Jinping, Putin is not a card that can be discarded either. China and the U.S. can talk, but they cannot let the U.S. think that China will abandon Russia. China and Russia can cooperate, but they cannot let Russia think that China has been bought by the United States. Europe can be divided, Japan can be suppressed, and Taiwan can continue to be threatened. This is today’s China-Russia relationship.
It is not sincere mutual love, but mutual need. It is not without contradictions, but they cannot turn against each other for the time being. It is not pure friendship, but a strategic mutual guarantee against Western constraints. It can be called collusion for mutual benefit and interest-based alliance.
Therefore, the four major reasons for Putin’s eagerness to visit China ultimately boil down to one sentence: As the Russia-Ukraine war has reached this stage, Russia lacks victory on the front lines, lacks security in the rear, lacks guarantees diplomatically, and lacks refined oil in energy.
Putin has to come to Beijing to ask Xi Jinping for all these things. That is why he is so eager to come to Beijing.
