- Член од
- 17 март 2005
- Мислења
- 11.493
- Поени од реакции
- 1.584
Po ubedlivite pobedi na 6 izbori i 3 referendumi, Chavez izgleda napravi losha procenka da objavi nov referendum minatata nedela. Imeno, sakashe narodot da mu dade mandat da vladee dozhivotno i da ja vovede Venecuela vo "socijalizmot na 21 vek". Toa e edna od trite strateshki orientacii na Chavez.
No minatata nedela, narodot ja odbi taa ideja na Chavez so najtesna pobeda od 50.7% nasprema 49%. Edna od najgolemite prichini za porazot na Chavez e pojavata na novo studentsko dvizhenje koe ja obedini celeosno razdelenata i obezglavena opozicija. Toa dvizhenje ne e homogeno tuku se sostoi od nekolku grupi.
Ona shto e interesno za Novoto studentsko dvizhenje e shto nalikuva na srpskiot "Otpor" od vremeto koga se boreshe protiv rezhimot na Miloshevic. Dvizhenjeto vo Venecuela se narekuva CANVAS i ima isto logo. Se ochekuva Chavez da napravi chistka...
Spored analitichkata agencija Stratfor:
Roughly three months ago, a group calling itself the Center for Applied Nonviolent Action and Strategies (CANVAS) began operating in Venezuela. CANVAS' raison d'etre is simple: to teach local forces how to most effectively oppose the authoritarian regimes who rule them. Courtesy of CANVAS, the dustbin of history boasts a few pieces of geopolitical roadkill: former Georgian President Edward Shevardnadze (Rose Revolution, 2003), former Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev (Tulip Revolution, 2005), nearly President Viktor Yanukovich (Orange Revolution, 2004-05) and CANVAS' first-ever foe, former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic (2000).
CANVAS, originally known in Serbia as Otpor (loosely translated as „Resistance”), excels at bridging the gaps between disparate factions, mobilizing popular support, coordinating protest actions and hitting authoritarian governments where it most hurts. It shines at carrying out the sort of activities at which the Venezuelan opposition fails miserably, and it has now contributed to Chavez's first real defeat.
None of this means that the Venezuelan opposition will not again fracture and return to irrelevance. Forces still remain hugely in Chavez's favor, and the president already has indicated that his constitutional revisions will be back, one way or another. Chavez certainly is going to take a hard look at all the levers of power to ensure that defections and the media cannot again be used against him. A purge -- a broad one -- is
brewing.
http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=299305&selected=Analyses
No minatata nedela, narodot ja odbi taa ideja na Chavez so najtesna pobeda od 50.7% nasprema 49%. Edna od najgolemite prichini za porazot na Chavez e pojavata na novo studentsko dvizhenje koe ja obedini celeosno razdelenata i obezglavena opozicija. Toa dvizhenje ne e homogeno tuku se sostoi od nekolku grupi.
Ona shto e interesno za Novoto studentsko dvizhenje e shto nalikuva na srpskiot "Otpor" od vremeto koga se boreshe protiv rezhimot na Miloshevic. Dvizhenjeto vo Venecuela se narekuva CANVAS i ima isto logo. Se ochekuva Chavez da napravi chistka...
Spored analitichkata agencija Stratfor:
Roughly three months ago, a group calling itself the Center for Applied Nonviolent Action and Strategies (CANVAS) began operating in Venezuela. CANVAS' raison d'etre is simple: to teach local forces how to most effectively oppose the authoritarian regimes who rule them. Courtesy of CANVAS, the dustbin of history boasts a few pieces of geopolitical roadkill: former Georgian President Edward Shevardnadze (Rose Revolution, 2003), former Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev (Tulip Revolution, 2005), nearly President Viktor Yanukovich (Orange Revolution, 2004-05) and CANVAS' first-ever foe, former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic (2000).
CANVAS, originally known in Serbia as Otpor (loosely translated as „Resistance”), excels at bridging the gaps between disparate factions, mobilizing popular support, coordinating protest actions and hitting authoritarian governments where it most hurts. It shines at carrying out the sort of activities at which the Venezuelan opposition fails miserably, and it has now contributed to Chavez's first real defeat.
None of this means that the Venezuelan opposition will not again fracture and return to irrelevance. Forces still remain hugely in Chavez's favor, and the president already has indicated that his constitutional revisions will be back, one way or another. Chavez certainly is going to take a hard look at all the levers of power to ensure that defections and the media cannot again be used against him. A purge -- a broad one -- is
brewing.
http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=299305&selected=Analyses