Германската економија стагнира, а штом таа стагнира, другиве нема кој да ги влече.
Germany warned over EU commitments
Fri, Aug 26 2011, 10:06 GMT
by David Johnson
Disappointing EU manufacturing data and a very sharp drop in German business confidence, as shown in the IFO survey, all weighed on the Euro on Wednesday. None of the data does anything to dispel the rumours that the EU and Germany in particular are likely to have a very tough time in the 12 to 18 months ahead. That wasn’t helped by warnings from two well respected German institutions that the German commitment to the EU bailout had gone too far and the financial commitment would damage the German economy.
That was taken very seriously by the markets; I guess the truth generally is influential. And the current argument raging within the EU is over whether the countries being bailed out by Germany and others should be putting up collateral to secure the loans. Gold reserves, corporate bonds et al have been suggested. Nevertheless, weakness in the Pound and strength in the US Dollar caused Sterling to slip against the Euro, back to the bottom of its trading range; perhaps with the potential to drop into the €1.12 area.
One indicator of how bad things might get is the record cost of insuring against default by banks and other financial institutions. The cost of insuring yourself against RBS defaulting - for example - is higher now that when we were in the midst of the financial crisis 2 1/2 years ago. That is a very worrying sign because the people who set those levels are looking at the banks indebtedness in markets like Greece and Spain and at their lack of income because they are not lending as much to bricks and mortar businesses. And the fact that the governments around Europe are protectuing against negativity by banning short selling of stocks is no more than a mask for the truth that people are feeling negative.