Актуелни случувања во светот, со осврти од геополитички аспект

[Human]

Викаш авакси/постара генерација летаат над Ирак... Како и да е, импресивно како за козоебaчи нели?

Во Авганистан имаат изгубено преку 80 вакви летала. Кажи нешто ново.

 

[Vanlok]

Чим Лорд Бебо вика дека е Рипер, тогаш сигурно е Рипер.

Не е само Бебо, ете ги и Фокс Њуз... И не е ни прв, туку второ соборување во Ирак.
Ама што е тоа за САД, 32 милиончиња. Ќе го пуштат штампачот повеќе да штампа. Нели Хјуман?

47-ма секунда, за нестрпливите:

 

[Vanlok]

 

[Vanlok]

 

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[Vanlok]

Lost amid all the other news breaking in the last 24 hours is one particularly disturbing story: the United States Navy lost a battle at sea yesterday.

CENTCOM put out an anodyne press release yesterday stating that afternoon, "Iranian-backed Houthi terrorists fired three anti-ship ballistic missiles from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen toward the U.S.-flagged, owned, and operated container ship M/V Maersk Detroit, transiting the Gulf of Aden. One missile impacted in the sea. The two other missiles were successfully engaged and shot down by the USS Gravely (DDG 107). There were no reported injuries or damage to the ship."

All well and good... but as it turned out there was a lot more to the story. This engagement occurred while two American merchantmen - the Maersk Detroit and the Maersk Chesapeake - were attempting to run the Bab al-Mandeb from south to north while being covered by the USS Gravely. An AEGIS destroyer's defensive umbrella should have turned this transit into a milk run - except it didn't.

CENTCOM admits that one of the Houthis' tactical ballistic missiles - undemanding targets as far as such things go - got through the Gravely's interceptors. What they neglected to mention was that it struck about a hundred meters from the Maersk Detroit, and that after the attack the convoy aborted the transit and retreated back into the Arabian Sea rather than press on into enemy fire.

Was retreat the correct decision at the moment? Probably, the Gravely was shepherding two lumbering merchantmen and facing unsuppressed shore batteries of unknown strength and capability in broad daylight, quite possibly without adequate air cover given the ambiguities of the Eisenhower's exact station in the Red Sea and the limited combat radius of its air wing.

Was this operational plan inadequate? Almost certainly - reading between the lines, it reeks of a complacent assumption that Houthi missile batteries had actually been suppressed by a few rounds of air raids and that a single AEGIS destroyer could handle anything the Houthis could throw at them with no need for additional contingency planning. In the event neither of these assumptions were correct - and because of it a convoy covered by one of the US Navy's premier warships retreated from a battle that was going badly.

Perhaps the Task Force command should stop trying to shape narratives on this website and get to work on getting the Bab al-Mandeb back open to Western shipping, because right now that particular pool looks very closed.

 

[Vanlok]

 

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[Vanlok]

Москва со предупредување: Сајбер-центар на НАТО за хибридна војна во Албанија, загрозен e Балканот

НАТО и Европската Унија ја прошируваат територијата на која се наоѓаат нивните сајбер-центри насочени против Русија, а сега планот е да се изгради еден

makfax.com.mk

 

[Vanlok]

After the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, U.S. and EU sanctions aimed to collapse the Russian economy.

The sanctions have failed primarily because of China's vast, increasingly advanced manufacturing base.

Read the new @bismarckanlys Brief here:

1/n

Sanctions on Russia Failed Because of Chinese ManufacturingU.S. and European sanctions aimed to collapse the Russian economy. Alongside technocratic preparation and sanctions evasion, imports of advanced manufactured goods from China neutered this strategy.https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/p/sanctions-on-russia-failed-because
In April 2022, both the IMF and S&P Global forecasted an 8.5% annual decline in Russia's GDP.

Biden administration officials predicted that, due to the sanctions, Russia would go back to "Soviet style living standards from the 1980s."

This has obviously not happened.

2/n


Instead, Russia has become a rare live experiment in whether a major country can replace its reliance on the industrial bases of the U.S.-aligned world of North America, Europe, Japan, and South Korea with the industrial base of China.

So far, the answer seems to be yes.

3/n
Russian imports of Chinese goods have risen across nearly every category, including advanced manufactured goods, and Chinese companies have become market leaders in Russia.

Chinese exports to Russia are up 121% since 2021, compared to 29% with the rest of the world.

4/n
Specific categories show a stark picture:

Chinese car imports grew 8x, tractors 50x, trucks 9x. Household appliances are up 50% or more.

Chinese cars are now 55% of the Russian market, up from 8% in 2021. Chinese smartphone brands are now 70-95% of the Russian market.

5/n
Exports of chemicals, plastics, rubber, even footwear and clothing—all have grown, some by nearly half.

Exports of goods and components needed in military manufacturing, like ball bearings, optics, ceramics, drones, computer chips, and alumina have also all grown.

6/n
Russian trade with both China and the U.S.-aligned world continues to be underestimated due to vast sanctions evasion.

Global trade statistics are now replete with comically suspicious figures, such as that Kyrgyzstan has increased ball bearing imports from China by 2500%.

7/n
Russia's technocrats underestimated the severity of sanctions, but had been preparing for them for years.

Russia has rolled out its own domestic replacements for Visa/Mastercard and SWIFT. Financial engineering has blunted the impact of financial sanctions.

8/n


But at the end of the day, technocratic preparation or sanctions evasion would not have saved the Russian economy and war effort if there was no way to acquire key manufactured goods and components for both consumer and military uses.

China made the difference.

9/n
China offers a vast, increasingly sophisticated, full-stack alternative manufacturing base.

Because of this Western sanctions cannot collapse an economy by denying it modern goods and technology, but only increase its dependence on China, so long as China is willing.

10/n
Such an alternative did not exist as recently as 2008. But it exists enough now, apparently, to stabilize a wartime economy with 150 million people.

In aerospace or high-end chips, China is not yet a perfect substitute. But its sophistication will only grow in the future.

11/n
To read the full analysis of sanctions on Russia and Chinese manufacturing, subscribe to Bismarck Brief here:

We invite you to subscribe and join us on this ongoing exploration into the global power landscape.

Subscribe to Bismarck BriefIntelligence-grade analysis of key industries, organizations, and live players. Click to read Bismarck Brief, by Samo Burja, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/subscribe
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@SamoBurja: After the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, U.S. and EU sanctions aimed to collapse the Russian economy. The sanctions have failed primarily because of China's vast, increasingly advanced manufacturing b...…

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[Vanlok]