Војна во Украина (исклучиво воена перспектива)

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[Gr-er]

Ги однесоа упм, по гнасен рат не ќе да имало ...

 

[Vanlok]

Velyka Novosilka Falls Without Fight, as '100 Day Peace Plan' Reportedly "Leaked"

One of the biggest recent battlefield developments is just how quickly some of Ukraine’s largest urban strongholds are falling after being surrounded and cut off by Russian forces.

simplicius76.substack.com

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popular Ukrainian outlet Strana has now reported an alleged ‘leaked’ peace plan from Trump’s camp which calls for an April ceasefire and a total armistice by May of this year.



https://strana.today/news/478985-peremirie-k-paskhe-mir-k-9-maja-v-politkruhakh-obsuzhdaetsja-100-dnevnyj-plan-trampa.html
Here is a good indepth summary of the plan’s timeline from Russian RVoenkor channel:

Trump's '100-day plan' for Ukraine: Ceasefire promised by Easter, peace by May 9
It is impossible to say with certainty that the plan corresponds to reality. The Ukrainian publication "Strana" reports that the document was transferred from the US to the Europeans, and they in turn transferred it to Ukraine.
Main:
Trump plans to have a telephone conversation with Putin in late January - early February. He also wants to discuss the situation in Ukraine with its authorities.
Based on the results of the negotiations, a decision may be made to continue or suspend the dialogue.
Volodymyr Zelensky must cancel the decree that prohibits negotiations with Putin.
A meeting between Trump, Putin and Zelensky may take place in February or the first half of March. It is not yet clear whether this will be a trilateral meeting or two separate ones. The meeting is planned to discuss the main parameters of the peace plan.
Starting April 20, a ceasefire is planned to be declared along the entire front line, and all Ukrainian troops will be withdrawn from the Kursk region.
An international peace conference is set to begin at the end of April to formalize an agreement between Russia and Ukraine to end the conflict. The United States, China, and a number of countries in Europe and the Global South will act as mediators.
Also at this time, the exchange of prisoners will begin according to the formula “all for all”.
By May 9, a declaration of the conference on the end of the conflict should be published. Martial law and mobilization will not be extended in Ukraine, and presidential elections will be held at the end of August.
What is included in the agreement?
Ukraine does not seek to return the territories that were liberated by Russia, either militarily or diplomatically, but at the same time does not officially recognize Russia's sovereignty over these territories.
Ukraine will not become a member of NATO and declares its neutrality. The decision that Ukraine will not be accepted into the alliance must be confirmed at the NATO summit.
Ukraine will become a member of the European Union by 2030. The EU is committed to rebuilding the country after the war.
The number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is not decreasing, and the United States is modernizing the Ukrainian army.
After the conclusion of the peace agreement, some anti-Russian sanctions will be lifted, and restrictions on the import of Russian energy resources to the EU will be lifted.
Parties that defend the Russian language and advocate peaceful relations with Russia should participate in the elections in Ukraine. The persecution of the canonical Ukrainian Orthodox Church will also cease.
Separate consultations will be held on the issue of EU peacekeepers.
RVvoenkor

First: many obviously believe this is fake Ukrainian disinfo, and for good reason. There’s high chance that is likely—however, I do view it as relatively realistic as well for the simple fact that it chimes with Trump’s approach, and many of the key points above are consonant with statements from Zelensky and various US and European officials. If it was fake it would likely be a bit more flattering for Ukraine—which the above certainly is not, at least overtly so.

If there’s an inkling of truth to it, we can say with certainty it will be laughed out of the room by Russia for this simple line:

The number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine does not decrease, and the United States will modernize the Ukrainian army.

Even if Russia should achieve the concession that Ukraine is not allowed to join NATO, there is simply no way in hell Putin would allow Ukraine to retain its entire armed forces and have those forces vastly augmented and rebuilt into something even more threatening by the US. After potentially 100-200k Russian troops have been killed, thousands of civilians slaughtered, etc., there is simply no way Russian leaders or the general staff could possibly allow Ukraine to remain such an existential threat—with or without NATO. In fact, at this point, the NATO issue takes a backseat and is a small concern compared to the immediacy of a nationalistic totalitarian military dictatorship armed to the teeth sitting on Russia’s doorstep.

In short: the deal above is a non-starter should it actually appear in even a remotely similar form; it is the mere deluded fantasy of the West to even think Russia needs to stop fighting any time soon, at a time when major Ukrainian strongholds are folding like cheap lawn chairs on a daily basis.

The fact is also this: Ukraine now represents something far more dangerous than previously imagined, even with a ‘neutered’ military as per the original “Istanbul deal” from April 2022. You see, for decades Russia feared NATO creeping up to its borders due to the ability to inflict various unexpected surprise first-strike attacks on Russian early warning systems and other defenses which would cripple Russia’s ability to detect or respond to a full-fledged American decapitation attack, like a nuclear first strike.

Ukraine has already perversely demonstrated its brazenly unscrupled ability to hit Russian strategic level assets like Tu-95 bases, early warning systems, and other infrastructure, like targeting nuclear power plants. This means that even with a ‘reduced’ armed forces, Ukraine would still pose an unacceptable threat because launching new high-tech drones and various missiles does not require a large armed forces in the sense of a manpower pool or armor fleet.

For this fact alone, no kind of negotiations is possible without Ukraine’s total disarmament or capitulation—this issue is absolutely an existential one for Russia.

Автоматски споено мислење: 30 јануари 2025

Ги однесоа упм, по гнасен рат не ќе да имало ...

Сите војни се гнасни, само прват оваа ја гледаме со свои очи.

 

[Gags]

Situation on Luhansk front: Russian Army took full control over Novojehorivka.



Situation on Kurakhove front: Russian Army took control over new trenches northeast of Andriivka.



Situation on Chasov Yar front: Russian Army took control over the bunker & the surrounding fortifications a the forest area.



Situation on Toretsk front: Russian Army took control over a series of fortifications at the western outskirts of Toretsk city.



Situation on Pokrovsk & Kurakhove front: Russian Army took control over most of Novoandriivka & several positions west of Petropavlivka & Slov'yanka.



Situation on Kursk front: At Sudzhansky district Russian Army recaptured a series of positions north of Guevo & at along Psel River.



Situation on northeastern front: Russian Army took full control over the locality of Dvorichna with the capture of Pidvarky district. Meanwhile Ukrainian Army withdrew from Zapadne.



Situation on Chasov Yar: Russian Army reentered in Mine Block-9 taking control over a series of positions south of Levanevskoho district.



Situation on Grodovskaya front: Russian Army made new advances south of Vodiane Druhe.



Situation on Pokrovsk & Kurakhove front: Russian Army advances southwest of Novojelyzavetivka & continue advancing west of Slov'yanka.



Situation on northeastern front: Russian Army took full control over Zapadne & the surrounding area as well as the road between this locality & Dvorichna, where Russian forces captured the northern warehouses & a series of positions along Oskil river.



Situation on Pokrovsk front: Russian Army advanced northeast of Kotlyne, south of Novovasylivka & took full control over Novoandriivka.



Situation on Kurakhove front: Russian Army made new advances at the eastern part of Andriivka. In addition, Russian forces entered in Dachne from east & southeast taking control over a third of the locality. Moreover, Russian forces captured a series of positions north of Yantarne & south of Kostyantynopil.



Situation on Velikaya Novoselovka front: Russian Army restarted the advances south of Rozlyv & expanded the buffer zone around Velyka Novosilka until Mokri Yaly River.

 

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Situation on Siversk front: Russian Army began the assault to Verkhnokamyanske taking control over the eastern part of the locality.



Situation on Chasov Yar: Russian Army controlled the gas station and reached the outskirts of Shevchenka and Levanevskoho districts. There is a gray zone of clashes with Ukrainian Army, which is constantly launching counterattacks. In addition, Russian forces advanced in the Krynychky firestal area (the situation in Pivdenno-Skhidnyi Mine was clarified in favor of Ukrainian forces).



Situation on Toretsk front: Russian Army made new advances inside the central part of Scherbynivka. The situation of Ukrainian Army in the salient to the east of the locality is in a compromising situation.



Situation on Pokrovsk front: Ukrainian Army recaptured the second Pokrovskoye Mine ventilation shaft west of Kotlyne. On the other hand, Russian Army made new advances inside Nadiivka.



Situation on Kurakhove front: Russian Army made new advances north of Sukhi Yaly & continue advancing at the southern outskirts of Kostyantynopil. In addition, Russian forces reached again the eastern fortifications of Andriivka.



Situation on northeastern front: Russian Army took full control over the locality of Novomlynsk & the surrounding positions until Dvorichna, where Russian forces continue advancing north of this locality.



Situation on Chasov Yar front: Russian Army made new advances at "Kleban-Byk" forest area.



Situation on Toretsk front: Russian Army took full control over the salient between Scherbynivka & Toretsk following the withdrawal of Ukrainian Army from there.



Situation on Pokrovsk front: Russian Army made new advances inside Uspenivka.



Situation on Kurakhove front: Russian Army continue advancing north of Sukhi Yaly.



Situation on Velikaya Novoselovka front: Russian Army advanced west of Rozdolne taking control over the fortifications adjacent to the road.

 

[Gags]

Situation on Kurakhove front: Russian Army made new advances north of Andriivka, inside Dachne & north of Yantarne.

 

[Gags]

Situation on northeastern front: During the last four days Russian Army made new advances south of Zapadne taking control over the hills which overlook the farms of Kalynove.



Situation north of Donetsk: Russian Army captured a series of fortifications north & northeast of Kolodyazi.



Situation on Siversk front: During the last four days Russian Army started another offensive to capture Bilohorivka. While clashes with Ukrainian Army are taking place at the ruins of the locality & chalk-quarry hill, Russian forces made a series of advances south of it.



Situation on Grodovskaya front: During the last five days Russian Army took control over most of the locality of Vodyane Druhe.



Situation on Pokrovsk front: Russian Army entered in Sribne from the south & took control over half of the locality.



Situation on Kurakhove front: Russian Army captured half of the locality of Dachne.

 

[Gags]

Situation north of Kharkov: Inside the city of Vovchansk during the last week Russian Army took control over a series of positions east of Soborna street towards the central park & the house of culture.



Situation on northeastern front: During the last nine days Ukrainian Army recaptured most of Zahryzove & a series of positions east of this locality.



Situation on Chasov Yar: Russian Army made new advances around the pond area reaching the first houses of Shevchenka district.



Situation on Pokrovsk front: Russian Army captured most of the locality of Sribne & made advances south of Nadiivka & southwest of Novojelyzavetivka. On the other hand map corrections were made south of Myrnohrad where Ukrainian Army still in control over most of Lysivka & Russian forces control some positions northwest of Novogrodivka.

 

[Gags]

Situation on northeastern front: While the Russian army worked to expand the now undisputed bridgehead around Dvorichna, it also launched a series of operations further north during the third week of January. In the next two weeks the Russian forces made some tactical advances, notably the creation of a new bridgehead southwest of Topoli as well as increasing pressure from the border.



Situation on Kurakhove front: Russian Army took control over the eastern defenses of Andriivka & new ones at the northern part. In addition, the last trench system south of Dachne is almost taken, while 70% of this locality is under Russian control too.

 

[Gags]

Situation on Kurakhove front: Russian Army managed to enter in the center of Andriivka.

 

[Gags]

Situation on Kursk front: At Sudzhansky district Ukrainian Army launched a new offensive thus retaking the localities of Cherkasskaya Konopel'ka & Fanaseevka & reaching the outskirts of Ulanok.



Situation on northeastern front: During the last four days Russian Army made significant advances north of Dvorichna & northwest of Novomlynsk taking control over the locality of Fyholivka.



Situation on Toretsk front: During the last five days Russian Army took control completely over the suburb of Kryms'ke & most of Toretskaya Mine.

 

[Gags]

Situation on Pokrovsk front: During the last three days Ukrainian Army recaptured a series of positions northeast of Pishchane & managed to infiltrate in the industrial compound of this locality. On the other hand, Russian Army made new advances inside Uspenivka.



Situation on Kurakhove front: Russian Army took full control over the locality of Dachne.