Повторно Нагорно Карабах ?

[Gags]

 

[Vanlok]

Вториот дел од написот:

Understanding the outcome of the war for Nagorno-Karabakh | The Vineyard of the Saker

A bird's eye view of the vineyard

thesaker.is

(продолжува)
Conclusion:
This war is now only frozen and, like in Syria, there will be provocations, false flags, setbacks and murdered innocents. But, like in Syria, Putin will always prefer a quiet strategy with minimal losses over one with a lot of threats, grandstanding and instant retaliations. There is also what I call the “Putin use of force rules”: never use force where expected, always use force when least expected and always use force in a way your enemies do not plan for. Still, let’s not see all this in rosy colors, there will be setbacks for sure, Erdogan is angry and he still wants to play a role. Putin, in a typical Russian manner will give him exactly that “a role”, but that role will be minimal and mostly for internal Turkish PR consumption. Erdogan, far from being a new Mehmed The Conqueror and “The Great Eagle”, will go down in history as Erdogan The Loser and the “Defeated Chicken”. Megalomania might be a prerequisite for an empire builder, but that alone is clearly not enough.

What comes next?

Pashinian will be overthrown, that is pretty sure. What matters most for Armenia is who will replace him. Alas, there are anti-Pashinian nationalists out there who are just as russophobic as the Pashinian gang. Furthermore, considering the hysterics taking place in Armenia, there is a real possibility that a new government might annul the ceasefire and demand a “fight to the end”. This could be a major problem, including for the Russian forces in Armenia and the peacekeepers, but it is also likely that by the time the Armenian people really understand that 1) they have been lied to and 2) they have suffered a crushing defeat these calls will eventually be drowned out by more sane voices (including those of the currently jailed pre-2018 leaders).

There is also a huge Armenian immigration in Russia which will hear all the reporting and analyses produced in Russia and will be fully aware of the reality out there. These immigrants represent a huge ressource for Armenia as they are going to be the one who will push for a strong collaboration with Russia which, frankly, Armenia now needs more than anything else. Right now, judging by what pro-Armenian Russian analysts are saying, the Armenians and their supporters are absolutely horrified by this outcome and they are promising that the Turks have now penetrated deeply inside the Russian sphere of influence. To them sane voices reply that this so-called “move” into the Russia sphere of influence will be mostly PR and that it is far better for some Turkish forces to move inside the Russian sphere of influence than for some Russian force to be deployed inside the Turkish sphere of influence. In other words, when these Armenia supporters say that Erdogan has moved deeply inside the Russian sphere of influence, they are also thereby admitting that this is a Russian, not Turkish, sphere of influence. They just don’t realize what they are saying, that’s all.

Frankly, the Armenian diasporas in Russia, the EU and the USA are superbly organized, they have a lot of money, and they currently control the narrative in the EU and the USA (in Russia they tried and miserably failed). Add to this the fact the Aliev was the one who started that war and that he is deeply enmeshed with Erdogan’s Turkey and you will see why the magnitude of the Armenian defeat is systematically underplayed in the western media. That’s fine, let a few months go by and the reality of the situation will eventually convince those currently in denial.

Right now, this is exactly the process which is (violently) taking place in Erevan. But sooner or later, looting mobs will be replaced by some kind of government of national unity and if that government wants to put an end to the horrendous losses and wants to rebuild what is left standing, they will have to call the Kremlin and offer Russia some kind of deal. Needless to day, the immense US embassy, and the hundred of Soros-sponsored “NGOs” will oppose that with all their might. But with the USA itself fighting for survival, the EU in total disarray and the Turks failing at everything they try, that is simply not a viable option.

Russians used to joke that it takes 2 Jews to cheat 1 Armenian, meaning that Armenians are possibly even smarter than Jews (who, in all fairness, are not that smart at all, that is mostly self-serving and self-worshiping propaganda). I tend to share this admiration of the Armenian people: Armenians are an ancient, truly noble and beautiful nation and culture, who deserve to live in peace and security and who have suffered many horrors in their history. They deserve so much more than this CIA/MI6 stooge Pashinian! Right now, the Armenian nation is definitely at a low moment in its history, comparable to the “democratic” 90s in Russia or the current “liberal” horror taking place in the USA. But, as Dostoevsky liked to say, “one should never judge a nation by how low it can sink, but by how high it can soar”.

The best thing for Armenia, objectively, would be to become part of Russia (which Armenia was in its recent past). But that is not going to happen: first, Armenian nationalism is as blind and as obtuse as ever and, furthermore, Russia would never accept Armenia into the Russian Federation, and why would she? Armenia has exactly nothing to offer Russia, except a difficult to protect territory with potentially dangerous neighbors. No, Russia never lost Armenia – it was Armenia which lost Russia. Now the most the Kremlin will offer to Armenia is 1) protection against all neighbors and 2) economic help.

As for the rest, let’s see if the next Armenian government re-joins the CSTO not only in words (as was the case for the past couple of years), but in actions (like resume intel exchanges, military collaboration, joint security operations, etc.). That would be a great first step for Armenia.

The Saker

 

[jamajka]

Значи @Vanlok Одговор на првото прашање е НЕ, со многу филозофија филувано.

А второто не го одговори. Зошто нема никаква трага за анти-Руските активности на Пашанјан во Руските мејнстрим медиуми ?

 

[Vanlok]

Koрелација не е еднакво на каузација.
Тоа е едно, а второ е твојата „фасцинација“ со меинстрим медиумите. Пак ќе кажам, иронично и не сосема искрено, затоа што и самиот најголемиот дел од информациите за Карабах (што ги покажа овде) ги добиваше од твитер профили.

Пошто меинстрим медиумите не се занимаваат со детали за нешто што е релативно обскурен настан. Надвор од мал процент луѓе што ги интересираат вакви настани, мнозинството од луѓето - идат на меинстрим медиуми - да читаат глупости зачинети со работи како фотографии од задникот на некоја од сестрите Кардашијан. Кажи дека не сум во право, и линкај го „купот“ наслови за Карабах од меинстрим медиуми како Русија Денес. Нема многу. Уште „поскржави“ се западните медиуми, како би-би-си или си-ен-ен, едвај има по некој наслов за најкрупните настани поврзани со Карабах/Ерменија, а дури и тоа што го има е сиромашно и без детали.

Еве ќе дадам пример. Се зборува дека канцелариите на НВО Отворено Општество во Ереван биле уништени пред некој ден. На кој меинстрим медиуми ќе прочиташ за ова? Но ако пребараш ќе испливаат некои информации.

Се разбира дека тоа не е некој „крунски доказ“ за ништо. Но тоа е едно делче од слагалицата. Можат да се наместат и други делчиња од слагалицата:

Ian Kelly: How can a Georgian President congratulate an agreement that locks in another Russian occupation in Caucasus?

Former US Ambassador to Georgia Ian Kelly has criticize President Salome Zourabichvili’s statement regarding the agreement

www.interpressnews.ge

Former US ambassador slams Georgia president statement on Karabakh

How can a Georgian President congratulate an agreement that locks in another Russian occupation in Caucasus?...

news.am

Ова е илустрација на тоа како западот гледа на развојот на настаните во Карабах, и Ерменија.


Следно делче од слагалицата:

Embassy of the United States, Yerevan - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Во Ерменија е втората по големина амбасада на САД во светот (најголемата е во Багдад). Во амбасадата работат 2 ИЛЈАДИ АМЕРИКАНЦИ... Тоа е колку целиот руски контигент со мировници. Зошто на САД им требаат 2.000 вработени во една Ерменија?


Малку по малку се наѕира сликата.
Следен важен момент е економијата на Ерменија, односно промените настанати по доаѓање на власт на Пашанјан со „велветната револуција“ - која е само уште една обоена револуција, и како и многу други е извршена од Сорос (без да навлегуваме кој е нарачателот).

Armenian-Russian economic relations: unilateral benefit

The Velvet Revolution, which took place in Armenia in 2018, revealed long-standing latent processes in this country.

news.ru

Да нема забуни, во извадокот подолу Eurasian Union е Азискиот економски сојуз, а EU е Европската Унија.

So, in 2018, the funds sent through official channels from Russia to Armenia amounted to $1,121,000,000. In 2019, the transfers made $1,059,000,000. Meanwhile, the transfers from the opposite side equaled $156,000,000 and $177,000,000, respectively.

...according to the influential Global Knowledge Partnership on Migration and Development (KNOMAD), the dependence of the Armenian economy on remittances is at least 12 percent, and according to international experts - 25 percent. In terms of this indicator, the country holds the 26th position among the countries with the ‘worst economy’ globally.

The Asian Development Bank’s 2019 ‘Country Governance Risk Assessment: Armenia’ report notes that the short-term migration from Armenia is high. This migration flow is mainly directed to Russia, and financial assistance comes mainly from Russia... According to Keynesian economic theory, aggregate economic demand growth is one of the main economic development drivers. The ‘Armenia Development Strategy for 2014-2025’ approved on March 27, 2014, also provides for payment of social expenses, prevention of a sharp decline in GDP, worsening of the social situation, and unemployment growth through international financial assistance and Russian organizations.

It is no coincidence that the CIA report also indicates that Armenia’s economy is very vulnerable concerning economic support from Russia. The CIA notes that most of the country’s infrastructure depends on or is controlled by Russia, such as the energy sector.

This country owes its economic existence to aid coming directly from the Russian Federation.

...
By joining the Eurasian Economic Union, directly projected at Russia’s initiative on January 2, 2015, Armenia received direct access to the markets of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan with a population of over 184 million people and a GDP of $2.2 trillion. This allowed the country to receive significant benefits in documenting trade transactions, timing, and pricing policy. These benefits are also mentioned in the World Bank’s Doing Business 2020 report.

The observed picture is as follows: the provided benefits didn’t satisfy the country. It continues to take steps that run counter to the economy’s fundamental laws and undermine the Economic Union. For example, according to the US International Trade Commission’s research, American goods and products are successfully competing in the Armenian market and outstripping their competitors. In particular, over the past five years, American investments in the energy and mining industries have grown steadily. It is no coincidence that the US-Armenia Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) was signed in 2015, which provides for the development of an environment for dialogue and cooperation between the two countries in trade and investments, as well as protection of each other’s business interests. In November 2017, a Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement was signed between Armenia and the EU. This agreement covers the development of the investment climate, increasing the number of jobs, and creating favorable conditions for European companies to do business in Armenia.

...
The agreement between Armenia and the EU is the first step towards further integration. As a result of the contract’s implementation between Armenia and the EU after its ratification by the Union, a new situation will arise, which contradicts classical economics’s fundamental laws. This raises an interesting question, whether Armenia will choose Russia and the Eurasian Union, which for many years have provided it with cheap electricity, gas, infrastructure, and financial assistance, or the EU, which ‘as officials of this country often say, promises great opportunities and prospects.’ A brief excursion into this country’s history clearly shows that the choice will certainly not fall on Russia…

Заклучокот ќе го ставам во одделен цитат:

In the end, the entire world is facing the consequences of the pandemic, severe adverse shocks, and major crises. In this sense, the Russian Federation is also no exception. When a ship gets caught in a storm, the best solution is to eliminate the heavy loads. In our opinion, for Russia, getting rid of the ‘Armenian burden,’ which is a hefty and useless load, looms on the horizon as the most rational economic choice.

Зошто нема никаква трага за анти-Руските активности на Пашанјан...

Горедискутираниот наслов е интересен и од аспект на ова прашање што упорно го поставуваш.
Дали можеш да ја демантираш точноста на следниве информации долу, и ќе нагласам дека се работи за јавно достапни и проверливи податоци:


The opening of its representative office in Armenia, even before Pashinyan came to power between 1997 and 2018 and provision of over $48 million to more than 200 organizations, was part of a bigger plan. In particular, one cannot but pay attention to the $5 million investment by the Soros Foundation in the Armenia media, under the pretext of developing independent press. It is a considerable figure for a country like Armenia, where more than 23 percent of the population lives in poverty. It is no coincidence that three months before the 'velvet revolution' in Armenia, the Soros Foundation supported the training of journalists and civil society representatives who are close to Pashinyan and his team. Subsequently, 50 trained journalists and 75 civil society activists served as the leading mouthpieces of Pashinyan's 'revolution.'


In general, the Soros Foundation in Armenia supports several non-profit organizations in human rights, women's rights, anti-corruption campaigns, election observation, and other spheres. Naturally, the above organizations, carrying out their activities for many years, contributed to Nikol Pashinyan's coming to power. At the moment, most of their leaders hold high positions under the country's new government. The reality is that after coming to power, Pashinyan fulfills his obligations to the sponsors of the 'Velvet Revolution' and appoints the leading representatives of this fund to high positions in Armenia. It is no coincidence that the Sorosites are already consolidating in all branches of power in Armenia. Ministries, embassies, and universities in the country come under the control of the Foundation one by one. For example, Sos Avetisyan, who was responsible for the civil society development programs of the Soros Foundation in Armenia, served as Deputy Minister of Education and Science in the early years of Pashinyan's rule and is currently one of the representatives of the 'My Step' bloc in parliament. Current Deputy Minister of Education and Science Arevik Anapiosyan for many years headed an organization, which, in turn, received a grant of $196,000 from the Foundation in 2016-2017 alone.

Another fact is the example of Gayane Abrahamyan, representing Pashinyan's 'My Step' bloc. In 2016-2017, the Soros Foundation allocated $210,000 for projects of the organization 'For Equal Rights' it heads. Tagun Ghazaryan, who is in charge of numerous projects financed by the Foundation, is in the same party in the parliament.

Sasun Khachaturyan, brother of the chairman of the board of directors of the Soros Foundation David Khachaturyan, heads the Special Investigation Service of Armenia. Deputy Speaker of the Parliament Lena Nazaryan, Chief of the Prime Minister's Staff Liana Daltakhchyan, and Head of the State Real Estate Cadastre Sarhat Petrosyan are coordinators and managers of the programs of the Regional Development Center, which is managed by the Soros Foundation and received more than $2 million from it. The press also reported on Rustam Badasyan, appointed by the Minister of Justice of Armenia, whose candidacy was supported by the executive director of the Soros Foundation in Armenia, Larisa Minasyan. Also, former Transparency International's electoral programs coordinator Armen Grigoryan was appointed head of the National Security Council. The former director of the State Control Service, David Sanasaryan, represents the pro-Western American heritage party led by Raffi Hovhannisyan. Sanasaryan was the one who threw eggs at the Russian embassy in Armenia.


An analysis of the information in Armenian media shows that the Soros Foundation has long funded the activities of 14 deputies who support Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. It is just the number of deputies directly related to the Foundation. The number of those who are indirectly connected with Soros is about 50. The list of 'Soros members' represented in each of the three branches of power in Armenia can be continued. But in our opinion, the provided information would suffice.

All this once again indicates that the Pashinyan government is in all respects connected with the Soros Foundation. It cannot be called a coincidence that after Pashinyan came to power, George Soros began to allocate more funds to this country. So, in 2019 alone, the amount allocated to Armenia by the Soros Foundation reached $3.6 million.

 

[teneke]

Најпосле најдов детален опис на употребата на дроновите во оваа војна и последиците од тоа. За тие што ги интересира еве линкови.

Ratovi dronova Azarbajdžana i Armenije – gdje je borbena avijacija?

Dok iz medija saznajemo o pokušajima neuspješnih primirja u uvijek tinjajućem, sa sada punom parom obnovljenom sukobu Azera i Armenaca u bivšem sovjetskom Zakavkazju, manje je poznato da se veći dio sukoba odvija bespilotnim letjelicama

www.bug.hr

Drones in the Nagorno-Karabakh | Small Wars Journal

A view from Poland on the current conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. The current conflict in the South Caucasus started on 27 September with Azerbaijan air and forces armed with massive support of artillery against the positions of the unrecognized Republic of Artsakh. It is a large-scale offensive...

smallwarsjournal.com

 

[TheGhegClan]

Ermencite poludea na socijalnite mrezi so pcovki nasoceni kon Putin i rusija po vesta deka generalot koj Putin go odbral da go predvodi ruskiot kontingent e etnicki azer no covekot vsusnost e dagestanec.

Генерал-потполковник Рустам Мурадов ќе командува со руските мировници во зоната на конфликтот Карабах.

Гласините дека Мурадов е од азербејџанска националност предизвикаа загриженост во ерменските кругови и задоволство во Азербејџан.

Мурадов, всушност, е од екстракција на Табасаран, автохтоно население главно центрирано во Дагестан, Русија. Повеќето се сунитски муслимани. Јазикот Табасаран е еден од државните јазици на Република Дагестан.

 

[SNM]

Илјадници етнички Ерменци бегаат од областите на Нагорно Карабах за да му бидат предадени на Азербејџан како дел од неодамнешниот мировен договор.

https://youtu.be/ys2mpSuYh0U

 

[Vanlok]

Taбасаранците не се Азери по ниедна дефиниција.

Табасараны — Википедия

ru.wikipedia.org

Табасараны, как и другие народности лезгинској јазыковој группы как по јазыку, так и в этнокультурном отношении близки с другими народами Дагестана. Предки этого народа исторически входили в состав многоплеменного государственного об'единенија — Кавказскују Албанију, и были известны под обштим именем «албанцев»[16].

Елена Исинбаева е Taбасаранка.

 

[ohrid66]

Како ги издупија Ерменците не само шо НК ќе им го земат убо исчистен,празен туку ги принудија и коридор да им дадат да си се спојат со Нахчичеван.
Турска тактика,само колкава е сметката шо Султанот ќе ја наплатит?
Си мислев дека Путин ке го треснит од земја султанот ама ништо од тој филм се здружија да им го е....м ..

 

[poimanemam]

Taбасаранците не се Азери по ниедна дефиниција.

Табасараны — Википедия

ru.wikipedia.org

Елена Исинбаева е Taбасаранка.

Оваа нема цицки

 

[Vanlok]

Пять главных загадок Второй карабахской войны

Окончание Второј карабахској војны породило множество загадок и конспирологических версиј. И дејствительно, некоторые обстојательства этого конфликта крајне загадочны, или по крајнеј мере парадоксальны с точки зренија обычној военној логики. Судја по всему, армјанское руководство само спровоцировало...

vz.ru

Five main mysteries of the second Karabakh war
by Evgenii Krutikov

The end of the second Karabakh war gave rise to many riddles and conspiracy theories. Indeed, some of the circumstances of this conflict are extremely mysterious, or at least paradoxical from the point of view of conventional military logic. Apparently, the Armenian leadership itself provoked a political catastrophe.

Let’s list which riddles raise the biggest questions and provoke the appearance of “conspiracy theories” in Armenia (and not only).

1. Why was not a full-fledged mobilization carried out in Armenia, and full-fledged military units were not deployed to the conflict area?

Despite loud Patriotic statements, there was no real mobilization in Armenia. The permanent number of the Armenian army – about 50 thousand people-was increased only by volunteers. While the conditions of the fighting required to increase the number of defenders of Karabakh to 80-100 thousand people at least. At the same time, very soon the lack of specialists (for example, artillery calculations and MLRS) began to affect the front in the Armenian army. There was no one to fill in the losses.

It is inexplicable why Yerevan did not conduct a real mobilization. The Armenian leadership simply avoids talking about this topic. If there was a mobilization plan, no one tried to implement it. As a result, there was no rotation of military personnel on the first line, in some areas people were sitting in the trenches for a month without a shift. 18-20-year-olds were on the front line, and at some point the untrained youth made up up to 80% of the personnel. The Karabakh detachments, made up of professionals and veterans, suffered heavy losses in the first week, which there was no one and nothing to make up for, since there were simply no reinforcements.

Groups of volunteers in Armenia were formed along party lines. The scandal was caused by an attempt to form a separate detachment of the prosperous Armenia party named after the oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan, who is now Pashinyan’s main opponent. The two have been in conflict for more than a decade. Now the Prime Minister openly calls Tsarukyan “the culprit of the fall of Shusha”, since his phantom squad allegedly did not have enough at the front to win. These conflicts could have been avoided simply by having a mobilization plan and a desire to implement it.

The main military forces of Armenia did not move to Karabakh. But in order to relieve the tension created by Azerbaijani UAVs, it was enough to simply relocate early detection locators to Goris. And one army corps would have been enough to cover the southern direction even at the stage when the Azerbaijanis were languidly marking time in front of the first line of defense. Proper supplies were not organized, and after a month of fighting, this led to a shortage of missiles for the MLRS and shells for the barrel artillery. And without artillery support, the infantry can only die heroically.

All this borders on sabotage, although it may be partly explained by local sloppiness and unwillingness to weaken the defense of Armenia proper. The latter is a very controversial position and it looks like the Armenian leadership has simply abandoned Karabakh to its fate.

2. Why did the Northern front behave so strangely?

In the North and North-East of Karabakh, there was a large fortified area of the Armenian defense, which included very combat-ready units. And they really put up a serious resistance to the advancing Azerbaijani group and in the end actually stopped it (losing, however, several positions and significant villages).

But after that, the elite Yehnikner battalion suddenly retreated, although its commander managed to get the “Hero of Artsakh”. Moreover, since October 3, neither “Ehnikner” nor any military unit at all was removed from the Northern front and was not transferred to help the burning South. At the same time, the Azerbaijanis only once decided to simulate an offensive in the North again, clearly for distracting purposes. There was no need to keep up to 20 thousand people in the North.

The Karabakh Leadership informally explains all this with a lack of resources. But now the” lack of resources ” in Karabakh explains everything.

3. Why did the southern front collapse?

The fact that the main blow is being inflicted by the Azerbaijanis in the South, in the steppe zone, was visible to the naked eye already in the first few days of the war. Nevertheless, resources – human and technical-began to arrive on the southern front when this front was no longer in fact there. The steppe zone was lost, and the front stopped along the edge of the mountains from Krasny Bazar to Martuni. As a result, up to 30 thousand people defending Karabakh have accumulated in this area. They were threatened with complete encirclement and death, which was one of the reasons for signing the ceasefire agreement. At the same time, before the occupation of Jabrayil, the Azerbaijani troops advanced very slowly, disrupting their own pace of attack. This gave the Armenians a small, but still a head start in order to understand the situation and engage in relocation.

After the occupation of Jabrayil, the front began to fall apart, and the advance of the Azerbaijanis sharply accelerated. The moment was lost.

For some reason, the Armenian command has not made a decision about the transfer of additional resources to the southern front? This is another mystery.

4. Why did the Armenian side limit itself to passive defense?

During the entire war, the Armenian side only twice attempted a counterattack against the advanced units of the Azerbaijanis who were running far ahead. Both times this happened opposite Lachin in a narrow gorge, with the extreme vulnerability of the Azerbaijani battalion-tactical group (BTG). Once even successfully. But these operations were simply reduced to a massive attack by the MLRS on enemy clusters. Operations to block the gorge and encircle the enemy in other sections of the southern front were suggested. But not a single Armenian unit moved. An amazing war in which one of the parties did not conduct a single offensive operation on the ground, limited only and exclusively to passive defense.

A successful counteroffensive in the gorge before Lachin would have crushed so many Azerbaijani forces in the cauldron that they would not have thought about attacking Shusha for at least a couple of weeks. And later it was quite possible to destroy the Azerbaijani infantry in the ravine Averatec. But it took a lot of effort.

There is no explanation for why the Armenian side did not even try to counterattack or use other methods to use the operational advantage that it repeatedly had. The lack of resources can only be referred to endlessly in the last stages of warfare, but passive defense has been a constant tactic since the beginning of the war.

5. Why was Shusha handed over?

The most sensitive and incomprehensible question. The first assault on the city by Azerbaijani infantry was extremely unsuccessful. Then the second column of Azerbaijanis was covered by the MLRS strike. With some effort and assistance from Armenia, the Azerbaijani group that broke through to the city could be destroyed. However, suddenly a decision is made to leave the city without a fight and not to attempt to liberate it with the favorable operational and tactical situation remaining for another day.

It is believed that the decision to leave Shusha was made by NKR President Araik Harutyunyan and Secretary of the NKR security Council General Samvel Babayan, a local legend. Now, in protest against the signing of the armistice, he left his post and renounced the title of Hero of Artsakh. The Armenian YouTube channel “Lurer” (“news”) published a recording of Babayan and Harutyunyan’s talks, from which it follows that General Babayan really considered the possibility of recapturing Shusha even after its abandonment,but the further prospect of resistance was very gloomy.

Fragment of a conversation (not translated verbatim): “Let’s calculate the (combat) task. Twenty, thirty volleys of the “Smerch” MLRS blanket Shushi. We kill everyone there. Taking the city back. What’s next? The state of the army and the civilian population does not allow for war. We gave battle, took Shushi, then what? ( … ) we Can’t fight with the NATO army, with mercenaries, fully equipped… I tried to organize an operation with three battalions yesterday. We only have four howitzers. If we are not provided with artillery, how will you ensure the offensive or cut off his (the enemy’s) tails? (…) Today we must finally negotiate with Russia that we are handing over these territories and leaving them. Or they help us. Imagine that we have two Grads for the entire army today, a dozen howitzers, for which we have no shells.”

To sum up, General Babayan believed that resistance was useless at this stage of the fighting. We must refuse to continue the war and either surrender, or ask for ten days for an organized exit of the local population and the 30 thousand soldiers of the southern front who are completely surrounded. As an alternative, it was proposed to urgently ask Russia for direct military assistance in the form of PMCs or volunteers, equipment and ammunition.

But all this does not negate the question of why a small group of Azerbaijani infantrymen without heavy equipment, who broke through to Shusha, was not destroyed before the Armenian army began to panic. The retention of Shusha created a completely different architecture of political agreements for the NKR and Armenia. If this is a political decision, then who actually made it?

* * *

This list of mysteries of the second Karabakh war is far from complete. In addition, the Armenian leadership has accumulated many similar questions about preparing for war. This war was lost before it even started, precisely because of the inaction or strange action of Yerevan.

The proceedings will continue for a long time. The situation in the region has changed so radically in these forty days that all the old approaches to resolving the conflict and its military component have died out of themselves. And the new reality will require new solutions for Armenia. And it is not yet clear who will take these decisions.

 

[ohrid66]

Пять главных загадок Второй карабахской войны

Окончание Второј карабахској војны породило множество загадок и конспирологических версиј. И дејствительно, некоторые обстојательства этого конфликта крајне загадочны, или по крајнеј мере парадоксальны с точки зренија обычној военној логики. Судја по всему, армјанское руководство само спровоцировало...

vz.ru

Сами си се сјебаа Ерменците, кога почна во септември бомбардирањето требаа да си набават доволно оружје од Русија а и требаше цела Ерменија да се мобилизират како и со руски платеници два дена брутално удирање Lighning war-на Нахчичеван таму имат 500000 азери,рушење на мостот Полташ и тогаш че реагираше Русија и ќе се стопираше.

 

[Vanlok]

@ohrid66 по се изгледа дека ерменскиот премиер Пашанјан и неговата влада, одбивале да побараат помош од Русија цел месец после почнувањето на војната. Биле во филм „дека можат и до Баку да дојдат“ а во реалност се работи или за тешки дилетанти и ненамерни предавници, или за предавници со умисла.



@jamajka мислам дека ова подолу дава одговор за дилемите окулу наводниот анти-руски карактер на протестите од ерменската опозиција:

Пашинян прикрывается Россией от внутренних проблем

Сторонники Никола Пашинјана из правјаштеј партии решили выставить русофобами оппозиционеров, которые добивајутсја отставки премьера. Тезис правјаштеј партии прост: тот, кто против Пашинјана и мирного соглашенија по Карабаху, тот против России и ее миротворцев. Оппозиција это опровергает, но как сегоднја...

vz.ru

Nikol Pashinyan's supporters from the ruling party decided to portray oppositionists as Russophobes who are seeking the prime minister's resignation. The ruling party's thesis is simple: those who are against Pashinyan and the peace agreement on Karabakh are against Russia and its peacekeepers. The opposition denies this, but how does the Armenian society treat Russia today?

Supporters of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan from the parliamentary faction "My Step" found how to hurt the opposition, who are seeking the resignation of the de facto head of state for defeat in the Karabakh war.

The opposition members hastened to assure that they did not even think of fanning anti-Russian sentiments. "Do not even dare to speak with us the language of blackmail, we are not against either the presence of Russia or its peacekeeping mission," Lilit Galstyan, a representative of the oldest Armenian party "Dashnaktsutyun", one of 17 political forces, said at a joint press conference of opposition leaders on Thursday who demanded Pashinyan's resignation. It was the ruling My Step party and its leader that ruined Armenia's relations with its strategic partners, Galstyan stressed.




Од другите релевантни настани.

- прогласена no-fly zone над Карабах наспроти турските настојувања да го „надгледуваат“ регионот со нивните дронови: https://lenta.ru/news/2020/11/12/bespolet/

A no-fly zone has been declared over the area of the peacekeeping mission in Nagorno-Karabakh. The official representative of the Armenian Defense Ministry Shushan Stepanyan said this on her Facebook page. According to Stepanyan, Armenia, together with the Russian military, "has covered the airspace of Armenia and Artsakh, this is a closed zone for flights." The exception is flights of aviation of both sides and civil aircraft on registered routes.
Earlier, the Russian Foreign Ministry also denied the participation of the Turkish military in the peacekeeping mission in Nagorno-Karabakh. According to representatives of the ministry, Ankara's role will be limited only to the Russian-Turkish center for monitoring the ceasefire in the region. This center is being created on the territory of Azerbaijan, which is not adjacent to Karabakh.

- Турција се обидела на мала врата да влезе во мировната мисија, но Русија не дозволила. По мировниот договор Алиев еднострано изјавил дека Турција ќе биде дел од мировната мисија, но веднаш бил демантиран. Единственото учество на Турција ќе биде од набљудувачки карактер, во заедничкиот руско-турски контролен центар кој ќе биде надвор од Карабах и длабоко во азерска територија.
- либералите во Русија се жалат заради „недекларирана и прекумерна воена опрема“ (како APC и MLRS, кои секако се потребни за безбедноста на мировниците), а либералите изгледа секаде во светот се исти.


Инаку во врска со назначувањето на генералот Рустам Мурадов, за командант на мировниот контингент во Карабах: https://vz.ru/society/2020/11/13/1070390.html
Помеѓу многуте други причини, една причина е дека Рустам е родум од регионот ама не е ниту Азер ниту Ерменец.

47-year-old Rustam Muradov has an impeccable career in the army, which makes it possible to call a former rural boy from Dagestan a "military bone" - a real professional. He is a graduate of the Kazan Suvorov Military School, where he entered as a schoolboy. Then he graduated with honors from the Leningrad Higher Combined Arms Command School and the Combined Arms Academy of the Armed Forces. Subsequently, he graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff.

Muradov has gone all the steps of the army's career ladder - the commander of a platoon, company, battalion, regiment, brigade. Already in the rank of Major General (2012), he was appointed head of the 473rd Lisichansk District Military Center of the Central Military District (this is the former 44th training tank division). Muradov also served in the positions of the 1st Deputy Chief and Chief of the 41st Army, the Commander of the 2nd Guards Army, and from December 2018 he was appointed Deputy Commander of the Southern Military District, in which he remained until recently. On February 20, 2020, he was awarded the next military rank - lieutenant general.

Rustam Muradov skyrocketed to the highest levels of the military hierarchy. The first general's rank was at the age of 39. The case is not unique in the Russian army, but it is not an ordinary one either: such young generals in the RF Armed Forces can be counted on one hand. Lampasy Muradov did not sit in the headquarters' offices, but achieved with his military service - behind him two Chechen wars and an anti-terrorist operation in Syria, and on his chest, among other awards, two Orders of Courage.

The high rank also mattered when Muradov was appointed commander of the Russian peacekeeping forces in Karabakh. It would seem that only a contingent of 1960 soldiers and officers, 90 armored personnel carriers, 380 units of automobile and special equipment, which the commander of the 15th separate motorized rifle brigade, Colonel Konstantin Nechaev, whose subunits constitute the main backbone of the peacekeepers, would also be subordinate. And then a whole lieutenant general was appointed to command them.

However, there is a nuance that is characteristic of the Caucasus in particular.

The same Azerbaijani Defense Minister Zakir Hasanov wears the shoulder straps of a colonel-general, Armenian defense minister David Tonoyan is a civilian, but the chief of the Armenian general staff Onik Gasparyan has the rank of colonel-general. And the interests of the Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh must be represented by a person of equal or very close military rank. Here we can also recall the "general authority" Marat Kulakhmetov, who commanded the Joint Peacekeeping Forces in South Ossetia until 2008. Shoulder straps also mattered.

The choice when appointing Rustam Muradov to the post of commander of the Russian peacekeeping forces in Karabakh was also determined by his other experience. It is known that in 2016 he was the representative of Russia in the Joint Russian-Ukrainian Center for Control and Coordination of Ceasefire and Stabilization of the Line of Delimitation of the Parties (JCCC) in Donbass. The tasks of the center included control over the termination of the use of all types of weapons, the exchange of prisoners of war, the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the line of contact, assistance to local authorities and civilians, and ensuring security during reconstruction work. Actually, this is what Muradov will have to do in Karabakh now.

Already in 2017, Rustam Muradov was sent to Syria as a military adviser. His mission there was far from peacekeeping, under his leadership a successful offensive on Deir ez-Zor took place, but he had experience in negotiating and establishing contacts with the local civilian population. After that business trip, General Muradov was awarded the title of Hero of Russia by decree of the President of Russia dated December 28, 2017 for courage and heroism displayed in the performance of military duty.

In general, no matter how you look at it, it is a very worthy candidate. There remained one fad related to his ethnic origin. The media in Baku hastened to publish the headlines: "Azerbaijani Muradov will command Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh." Like, it is clear whose interests he will follow to a greater extent. Then the word “Azerbaijani” was removed from the official websites, but questions remained.

“Nationality really matters in such situations,” Leonid Ivashov, President of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, former head of the Main Directorate of International Military Cooperation of the RF Ministry of Defense, told VZGLYAD. - Neither an ethnic Azeri, nor an Armenian should be appointed commander of the Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh. This did not happen, but it was important that he was a person who knew the Caucasus well, its mentality, its traditions and customs. There are many subtleties and nuances here, any careless step, any gesture or word can be misinterpreted.

The commander of peacekeepers should not take sides or show sympathy for anyone.

At the same time, humanity is required from him, the ability to listen to people, especially women, given their Caucasian talkativeness. It will be necessary not only to facilitate the breeding of the warring parties, but also to help the civilian population returning to their lands. It is necessary to bring people together, even if yesterday they considered themselves enemies. It seems to me that it is Rustam Muradov who, as a native of the Caucasus, but at the same time a real Russian officer, will successfully cope with these tasks. "

With the nationality of Rustam Muradov, everything became clear - he is of Tabasaran origin, one of the indigenous peoples of Dagestan, who historically live on the southeastern slopes of the Greater Caucasus Range. Not an Azeri or an Armenian - a Russian general who was entrusted to establish peace in the Caucasus.

 

[Macedon1um]

- либералите во Русија се жалат заради „недекларирана и прекумерна воена опрема“ (како APC и MLRS, кои секако се потребни за безбедноста на мировниците), а либералите изгледа секаде во светот се исти.

Има видеа каде Русиве носат MLRS некаде ? Колку што знам имаше дезинформација само кога поминуваа возила нивни покрај патот имаше Ерменски млрс веројатно дефект, за кој некои мислеа дека се работи за опрема во служба на мировниците таму

Инаку еве интересно видео од Руските новинари во борбата за Шуша, даваат и прва помош на 2ца повредени Азерски војници

 

[Vanlok]

Не сум видел, барем не во видеото овде: https://lenta.ru/news/2020/11/13/grad/