Да знаете само како Nigel Farage ги подиве грчиштата со својот говор во ЕУ-парламентот! :tv:
Полека доаѓа нож до коска: или ЕУ ќе ја извлече Грција (и Италија) или ПОПГ ќе ја напушти евро-зоната. И едната и другата опција се крах за ЕУ.
Најџел им претскажува на ПОПГ дека ќе го напуштат еврото и дека допрва грчиштата ќе се табаат меѓу себе. Ова посебно откако владата на ПОПГ значително ќе ги намали пензиите или ќе ги укине.
Циганиве се закана за целиот банкарски ситем на ЕУ кој може да се сруши! Читајте:
Exactly one year ago, I spoke to an audience of investors at the local money show in Athens, Greece. I told them that, over the next 10 years, there is a big possibility that Greece and Italy would voluntary leave the euro. Everyone's jaw dropped!
My logic was simple. If and when we get a big rescission in Europe, these two economies would not be able to handle it. As a result, there is a big chance that they will leave the euro to be able to print drachmas and liras in order to meet their obligations… mostly to their citizens.
[FONT=Verdana, Helvetica, Arial]Well here we are one year later and already Greece and Italy are in great financial pain (if not on the verge of an economic collapse).[/FONT]
While the euro is a great currency and offers many benefits to those economies that have it, the euro also requires fiscal responsibility and other obligations. For one thing, you can't be part of a strong currency block of nations when you are not competitive.
[FONT=Verdana, Helvetica, Arial]So far the EU (did anybody say Germany) has washed its hands and has sent the message that every country must clean up its own mess. Greece has responded by announcing a bank package to help its local banks. Basically Greece will issue government bonds and give them to the banks and then the banks can post them as collateral to get funding.[/FONT]
However, as much as €40 billion of Greek government debt comes up for renewal in 2009. Will Greece (and Italy) be able to refinance this debt? Chances are they will, but at what price?
Already the CDS spreads that measure the possibility of country default are about 250 for Greece, leaving even Italy far behind! Even if Greece is able to find the money it needs in 2009, what will that do to its public finances and its ability to meet its social obligations?
[FONT=Verdana, Helvetica, Arial]You probably all saw the riots in the streets of Athens the past month. That's nothing compared to what will happen when (not if) the government announces that retirement benefits for the Greek public sector will have to be axed at some point.[/FONT]
If Germany and the EU insist that Greece and Italy handle this market turmoil by their own, then chances are that at some point in the future, these economies will break down and (reluctantly) be forced to exit the euro in order to be able to print money and meet obligations.
Like I said, so far the EU is playing hard ball and will not help Greece (or Italy) in any way. You all know how the game of chicken is played don't you? It goes like this.
Two cars at great speed race towards each other in a head on collision. The one who gets out of the way looses. The winner is the one who had the nerve and the lack of self preservation and carried the game to the end.
Now let's say that Greece and Italy struggle on their own and this recession continues for more than we all bargained for. Chances are that Greece and Italy, at some point in the future, will voluntary leave the euro to print their own money to meet obligations.
What does that mean for European banks?
[FONT=Verdana, Helvetica, Arial]Well European banks have at least €800 million of Italian and Greek debt on their books. If these two countries leave the euro, you can bet that their bonds will lose at least 60% of their value. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Helvetica, Arial]This means you can say goodbye to the European banking system (what's left of it) and say goodbye to the euro.[/FONT]
So the question is this: Will Germany and the EU let Greece handle the financial crisis by itself, only to be forced out of the euro in several years, or will they step in and help, in order for Greece (and Italy) to overcome this very difficult period?
My bets are that they will do whatever is possible to help. When you have nothing, you have nothing to lose. Greece and Italy at this point have nothing left to lose. The EU and the German hardliners however have everything to lose, if they allow the situation in Greece and Italy to get out of control.
So getting back to the game of chicken, I think a head on collision will be averted, because Germany and all the other EU hardliners will come to their senses and realize that, they have a lot more to lose by a head on collision then they would by averting one.
In either case, the EU hardliners will lose anyway, but by stepping aside and letting Greece and Italy win, they simply lose less.:salut: