По “несреќата“ Иран избира претседател, четири кандидати на гласачкото ливче
Мохамед Багер Галибаф,
Саед Џалили,
Масуд Пезешкијан и
Мостафа Пурмохамади
Pezeshkian acknowledges ‘difficult path ahead’ after winning run-off election with 53.7 percent of the vote.
www.aljazeera.com
Масуд Пезешкијан победи на претседателските избори во Иран, освојувајќи 53,6 отсто од гласовите во вториот круг!
Врските Русија Иран се развиваат за жал на западните “демократи“, во август Иранците ќе можат да повлекуваат со ирански картички пари на АТМ во РФ а исто и Русите ќе можат да го прават тоа на АТМ во Иран, се загрева котлето за дедоларизација...
Со можноста за доаѓање на Трамп и неговиот тим на власт, се повеќе се гласни мислењата дека следен е конфликт со Иран. Последен со вакво мислење беше Такер.
Со можноста за доаѓање на Трамп и неговиот тим на власт, се повеќе се гласни мислењата дека следен е конфликт со Иран. Последен со вакво мислење беше Такер.
Не знам, го слушав денес Даглас Мекгрегор, вели дека таа војна прескапо ќе ги кошта САД, најмногу заради инстантното затварање на Хормутз кое би следело после евентуален напад врз Иран.
Не знам, го слушав денес Даглас Мекгрегор, вели дека таа војна прескапо ќе ги кошта САД, најмногу заради инстантното затварање на Хормутз кое би следело после евентуален напад врз Иран.
Можеби нема да удрат директно, Нетјанаху не беше попусто на гости отиден кај Јенките и тоа пази во момент кога се речиси без фунционален претседател и без да се има вака некој фаворит кој ќе дојде следне на чело. Претпоставувам план е да почнат со Хезболах горе да се фатат и да почне деструкција на Либан.
Христијанството дека е надоврзано на Зороастризмот е факт. Тоа било првата монотеистичка религиja. Сепак интересно како си глумат толерантни дека се кон сите.
As Israeli provocations seem to be dragging the world into war, I initially thought to jump straight into a piece on a world war.
www.diligent.news
A Wider War: Iran
As Israeli provocations seem to be dragging the world into war, I initially thought to jump straight into a piece on a world war. In the hopes we don’t get there, I am writing instead on the military capabilities of Iran. I think most Americans have lost sight of the reality that it is MUCH harder to project (ie invade) another country than it is to defend your own. In this article I will try to touch on some of the strategic challenges us and/or our “allies” would face in this conflict. Much like any of our wars, I do not see a winnable objective for the United States. For Israel, I believe their objective IS to get the US to fight Iran on their behalf. I do not believe it is in the best interest of the United States to get involved, either directly or indirectly.
Geography Size
Iran is a large country. The visualizations below show it would span from Texas up through Oregon and encompass Nevada, Arizona, Utah and into Idaho, Colorado and Wyoming. For European readers, Iran (1,648,270 square km) is about the same size as France, Germany, Spain and the UK combined (1,658,640 square km). Iran has borders with several countries including Turkey, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkmenistan and others. In addition it has access to the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman and The Caspian Sea.
Iran vs United States {1]
Iran vs Europe [2]
Terrain
“Mountainous terrain held by riflemen who know what they are about cannot be militarily defeated”. - Buppert’s Law of Military Topography
The CIA factbook describes Iranian terrain as “rugged, mountainous rim; high, central basin with deserts, mountains; small, discontinuous plains along both coasts”, for a point of reference, Afghanistan is described by them as “mostly rugged mountains; plains in north and southwest”.
The Rockies have an average height of ~6,600 feet, and a highest peak of 14,460ft [1], the Zagros have an average height of 7,650 feet and a highest peak of 14,629 ft [2]. I put this here because I think most ‘military interested’ Americans understand the strategic barrier that the Rocky Mountains would pose to any ‘Western invasion’ of the US. Now imagine a slightly higher mountain range forming an entire border, that is the Zagros Mountains in Iran.
Wikipedia [3]
Topographic-map.com [4]
If you look back at ‘America’s Waning Power’ I describe some of the vulnerabilities tanks face on the modern battlefield. The fact is Iran has a mountain border that would render our tanks and likely our armored vehicles effectively useless. A Foreign Policy article details the introduction of tanks into Afghanistan (which by the way, didn’t occur until 2010). This quote I believe emphasizes the challenges anyone would face with an invasion of Iran : “the two most populated Mangal valleys in eastern Afghanistan had not seen a coalition or Afghan Army patrol in nearly two years — roughly since the introduction of the U.S. military’s lumbering MRAP (mine-resistant ambush-protected) vehicles, which are incapable of traversing the passes leading to their lands.” [5]
Borders & Relations
Examining border nations is important because strikes against Iran would need to have some level of acceptance or support from bordering nations. Without an overland path, strikes would need to be carried out from sea, which involves significantly more strategic risk for the attacker.
534 km border with Turkey
Turkey is a NATO ally, though I question if they would get involved or allow for launching of attacks from their country. Trade has been increasing between the two nations and as a Muslim nation, the Turkish population has been very actively protesting against Israel.
1599 km border with Iraq
Iraq is already trying to kick us out due to our support of the Gaza Genocide, if we try to launch operations from there, we would likely face local armed resistance
959 km border with Pakistan
Recently the two nations conducted strikes within the other’s borders claiming to be hitting ‘terrorist’ groups. While relations dropped off swiftly, they also began to rebuild them shortly after [6].
1148 km border with Turkmenistan
Has strong ties to Iran [7]
Korpeje Kordkuy pipeline (120 mile long) natural gas pipeline between the 2 countries [8].
44 km border with Armenia
The relationship with Iran is “warm” and has been since the 90s [9]
689km border with Azerbaijan
traditionally rather hostile relationship due to Iranian support of Armenia [10] though it has ‘warmed’ a bit recently, perhaps due to increasing trade between the two nations.
Likely the largest threat to Iran, Israel helped Azerbaijan in its war against the Armenians [11]. There are multiple reports (from sources I am not familiar with) that Israel has ‘bought’ access to use Azerbaijan to launch attacks against Iran and that they have stationed aircraft there.
“Tehran maintains particularly close military-to-military ties with Syria and Iraq and has signed basic military cooperation agreements with Afghanistan, Belarus, China, Oman, Russia, South Africa, Sudan, and Venezuela’ [12]
Strategic Positioning
Tel-Aviv, the military and population capital of Israel
From Tel-Aviv to Tehran is about 975 miles.
Persian Gulf, likely a staging/launch point for our naval forces and Marines
From northern Persian Gulf to Tehran is ~400 miles
Home to the US 5th fleet, a major strategic location for resupply
From Bahrain to Tehran is ~670 miles
Straits of Hormuz, 20-30% of the worlds oil travel through these waters[13]
The Straits of Hormuz are about 55 miles wide at the northern point
Military of Iran
The general composition of the Iranian military is detailed below by the Defense Intelligence Agency (2019 report). I don’t know how significant a role the ground forces will have other than the support functions for air defense and a deterrent (along with the above described mountains) for any ground presence by invading countries.
Iran Military Power- dia.mil [12] Airforce
The current aircraft utilized by Iran are a bit dated but it does boast over 200 aircraft so I don’t think it is completely negligible. In addition there are a handful of ‘home made’ Kowsar (F-5 copies) in service though the role and capabilities are questionable [13]. The Iranian Airforce is in for a major update however with acquisition of two dozen Russian Su-35 [14], a highly advanced 4th generation aircraft. Despite the advantages 4th and 5th gen fighters have over these more dated aircraft, the West’s aircraft are not invulnerable. In a simulated encounter a French pilot ‘shot down’ an F-22 from a Rafale (a 4.5 gen fighter). The Rafale is not alone in these simulated ‘shoot downs’, a mirage-2000 (4th gen) as well a T-38 (a training aircraft but maybe 3rd gen?) [15] . Similar outcomes are highly unlikely in an air-to-air fight, but not impossible.
Iran Military Power - dia.mil [12]
Aeroflap [16]; fighter-generations[17]
Air Defense
Odin.tradoc.amy.mil [18]
As we can see, Iran has a variety of air defense systems available to it. I Think it would take an entire article just to cover the span of weapons so I will instead focus on some highlights. The S20-C is an upgraded S-300 which can fire the missiles used in the S-400 system [18a]. This system would likely created ‘unsustainable losses’ to the majority of Israel’s air force if they were engaged [19].
The Misagh MANPAD (man portable air defense) systems are comparable to US stinger systems which have had a ‘high rate of success” in Ukraine [20]. There are also other older MANPADs in use by the Iranian forces as well.
Two newer systems were revealed earlier this year, the Azarakhsh and the Arman systems. According to Iranian military officials, the Arman missile defense system “has a medium range and a high altitude that can identify targets at 180km and engage and destroy them at 120km” [21]. The Azarakhsh low-altitude air defense system is likely to be us against helicopters, drones and cruise missiles [22]. They are armed with Azarakhsh missiles which were previously used in air-to-air roles and have a 10 km range.
Azarakhsh air defense system [22]
What is significant is the multi-layered defensive capabilities. There are larger systems, like the S20-C and then smaller systems like the two new releases above. The MANPADs can be operated by a single individual. This makes striking targets within Iran an extremely dangerous operation. Even if an advanced platform like an F-35 penetrated and destroyed some targets in Iran it would then have to get out past (dated) aircraft, multiple air defense systems like the S20-C and the Azarakhsh and just lone soldiers or teams in the mountains with MANPADs. Each layer would also have the advantage of knowing that an enemy jet is in the area. Entering Iran would also expose the more ‘noticeable’ (to targeting systems) engines of our aircraft. In addition to layered defense, many of the Iranian platforms are highly mobile, this means it will be difficult to identify ‘safe’ routes and difficult to conduct retaliatory strikes against the SAM sites.
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