Vanlok
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Војна во Украина (исклучиво воена перспектива)
- Креатор на темата Vanlok
- Време на започнување
Vanlok
deus ex machina
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Интересни воени муабети/коментари се тераат во продолжение, па кој е заинтересиран подобро да иде директно на линкот. Инаку еве ја содржината постот:
I have to disagree with Ayden's analysis here: although he may try something, Syrsky doesn't have the troops to seriously threaten the Russian position in Avdeevka. His previous efforts in Bakhmut relied upon now-squandered Ukrainian reserve forces. The Ukrianian army destroyed in Bakhmut in 2023 was drawn from two sources. Early in the battle Syrsky was able to commit the remnants of Ukraine's "second army" formed from mass mobilization of reservists in early 2022, which by January 2023 was sorely depleted and no longer capable of offensive action. It was, however, still quite large - and he fed battalion after battalion into Prigozhin's meatgrinder, to the point that mappers attempting to portray the sheer number of Ukrainian units committed and destroyed practically covered the city in unit icons.
After the city's fall in May 2023, Syrsky was then able to draw on Ukraine's "third army," a force largely equipped, trained and funded by NATO in an effort to reconstitute Ukraine's battered forces for what was intended to be a war-winning offensive - in Zaporozhe - in 2023. The overwhelming importance placed upon Bakhmut as a symbol of national resistance created a cycle of reinforcing failure as Syrsky was able to divert considerable forces earmarked for the far more important Zaporozhe operation for a pointless and ultimately disastrous attempt to retake the city in mid-2023.
Just as Ukraine's "second army" was destroyed trying to hold Bakhmut, the remnants of its "third army" have already been crushed trying to hold Avdeevka. There is no intact body of Ukrainian troops - no "fourth army" - in existence that can* be committed in an attempt to break the claws of the Russian pincer. To the extent that reserves exist, given reports of extremely intense fighting and enormous Russian fire strikes inside and on the approaches to Avdeevka in the last few days, I believe they have already been committed and at least partially destroyed.
* There is likely a "Praetorian Guard" still available in and around Kiev, probably equipped with prestigious Western equipment that has proven politically difficult to lose in combat like Challenger 2 and Abrams tanks, but I doubt this force will ever be committed in the Donbass. Conversely there are a decent number of unengaged Territorial Defense forces securing Ukraine's "unengaged" borders with Russia and Belarus, but these troops are doubtless of very low quality and very poorly equipped by now, and their deployment would leave key border regions exposed.
As a final note I'd like to thank the brilliant
@MNormanDavies
for his excellent work piecing together the AFU's actual combat organization, their efforts to shuffle units laterally to patch the front line, and the true state of their front line brigades (all of which remind one of the proverbial Ship of Theseus by this point, with little to nothing of the original organization remaining).
Vanlok
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Pro Ukrainian telegram on Avdeevka
“There is more than one road left in Avdos (O0542) that leads to the city.
There is one more. It is partially soiled, but completely passable for heavy machinery.
Yes, I am still inclined to think that in the end everything will end with the departure of our garrison.
But shooting the "road of life" at the enemy will not work as it was in Bakhmut. Because then we did not have so many fpv drones to destroy a bunch of enemy anti-aircraft systems.
Of course, one would not want to bring the situation to a critical point and use this road as the main supply road.
But that is why you need to keep Zenit and Severny. What is being done successfully now.
Nothing is lost yet, no matter how sad it looks on paper or on maps.
The fighting continues.
The defense of Avdiivka continues.”
There is one dirt road and it’s been raining/snowing for days. The Russians are also 1 field away and definitely have means of preventing transit. Avdeevka is now cut off from resupply.
Автоматски споено мислење:
Vanlok
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Срдечен поздрав до нафо екипа, со песната „Вундервафе“. 
Автоматски споено мислење:
Франција купува од С. Арабија во јуани... Што повеќе да се каже? Само не е за тоа темава.
Vanlok
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Ukraine - An Army Without Officers Has No Chance Of Winning
Most of the Western public does not know about military issues.
While people may identify someone who wears a uniform as a soldier they will have difficulties to understand the unit insignia, rank badges or tactical notations all regular soldiers are wearing. The lack of knowledge of military details makes it difficult to understand media reports of frontline issues.
An example for this can be seen in the basic disposition of a frontline battalion.
A battalion is a 400 to 1,000 men unit specialized around some vehicle or form of fighting.
Pure infantry battalions will walk and fight on foot or travel longer marches on trucks. Mechanized infantry has armored fighting vehicles that transport troops but also have some minor guns to cover the loading or unloading of their soldiers. Tank battalions have armored hulks with larger guns designed to punch through hardened enemy lines. Artillery battalions have large caliber howitzers or missiles to deliver fire from a distance.
A brigade, consisting of several battalions of different types, may mix those as appropriate for the current fight.
A battalion itself will consist of four to six companies. Each company will have three to four platoons.
Platoons, generally some 30 men strong, are led by Lieutenants. The company, consisting of several platoons is commanded by a Captain. The leader of the first platoon of a company is often a seasoned Lieutenant who is doubling as the deputy company commander.
The next higher organization, the battalion is led by a Lieutenant Colonel with the help of a battalion staff. That staff, split into four (or more) sections known as S1 to S4, is taking care of the battalions own personnel, the enemy situation, the rearward (reserve) battalion command post and the logistics.
These sections are led by a seasoned Lieutenant (S1), a Captain (S2), a Major (S3) who is also the deputy battalion commander, and another Captain (S4) for logistics. There may be additional officer positions like the battalion doctor, the technical officer, or a military intelligence section leader.
All together a battalion has some 12+ Lieutenants as platoon leaders, 4 Captains as company leaders, a battalion staff consisting of 1 or two additional seasoned Lieutenants, one or two additional Captains, one or two additional Majors and, at the top, a Lieutenant Colonel.
That's a total of about 10+ junior officers and some 10+ more seasoned or higher ranking officers.
Now lets look at a fleeting line in a recent New York Times report:
‘They Come in Waves’: Ukraine Goes on Defense Against a Relentless Foe (archived) - New York Times, Feb 4 2024
At the hot spots of the eastern front line, Ukrainian troops are outmanned, outgunned and digging in.
A normal reader, not well versed in military organization, will not stumble over that sentence as I did.
A Lieutenant at age 28 is likely a seasoned one. But in the role of a 'deputy battalion commander'?
What happened to the S3, the Major and nominal deputy battalion commander? What happened to the six Captains the battalion is supposed to have? All of them should be better trained and qualified to take on the role of a deputy battalion commander than a mere Lieutenant.
This small detail, a Lieutenant as deputy battalion commander, tells me more about the battalion's state that any flowery description of casualties.
Such a battalion is done with. Its officer corps is mostly dead or wounded. Its companies and platoons or likely to be run by mere sergeants. While such a unit may still hold onto some trenches it is certainly no longer able to fulfill any operational task. It will not be able to counterattack. It will not even be able to organize an orderly retreat.
The 47th Mechanized Brigade is currently fighting in the northern part of Avdeevka which the Russian forces are in the process of storming. During the last two weeks the Ukrainian losses of dead and severely wounded as counted in the Russian Defense Ministry Daily Reports have exceeded 800 per day. That is far higher than the 500 to 600 per day of previous months.
The state of Lt. Shyrshyn's battalion is consistent with that.
During my time as a soldier I have read quite a number of reports about small units who were dying in Stalingrad, Kursk or in some minor battle action somewhere else. Once their officer corps is done with the headless chickens that make up the majority of soldiers in such a battalion are likely to die soon thereafter.
The Ukrainian army is lacking soldiers and munitions. It is lacking the officers to train and lead them. The Ukrainian state does not have the money to conscript and equip more soldiers. It does not have the officer corp needed to train new soldiers. It does not have the factories needed to produce weapons and munitions.
It is high time for Ukraine to give up this unequal fight and to save the lives of those soldiers who are still living.
It is high time for Zelenski (and Zaluzny and others) to leave.
Human
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На 2 Февруари 2023та:
Длабоко утврдени вкопани позиции нема никогаш да се распаднат се додека не им се распадни логистиката.
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луѓе се во прашање,фатени и носени не по нивна воља да скапуваат по тие ровови.......ќе се распаднат побрзо од секоја надеж на сатанистите за пресврт
The xx
Russia state-affiliated bot. ☑️
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Ти здробија со дроновиве.
Ќе видиме што како ќе ги надоградуваат во иднина.
Имаше еден тип на твитер. Водеше статистика на се што има погодено лансетот, незнам дали уште ја води статистиката.
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Што им е само филмот????
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Situation southwest of Donetsk: Russian Army restarted the advances towards Pobjeda. Russian forces took control over a section of the forest belt adjacent to the settlement after Ukrainian Army retreated from there.
Situaation on Kherson front: The fog of war around the town of Krynky has cleared. The Russian Army's inability to storm the centre of Krynky allowed the Ukrainian Army to move new troops to the bridgehead and expand it slightly. However, the Ukrainian situation remains very complicated given the continued Russian artillery on the small 0.85 square kilometre area.
Situation on Avdivka front:
- From the northern axis:Russian Army continues to advance along Chystiakova Street and is situated a few metres away from the railway hospital. At the same time the Russian forces crossed the railway and reached the Avdeevka Construction Parts Plant and a new section of Tymiryazieva Street. It is not true that the industrial avenue was physically cut off.
- From the southern axis: Russian Army restarted the advances there by taking control over a new section of forest and railway which allowed troops to capture part of the trenches of the dachas adjacent to T-05-05 road. After this latest advance positions of Ukrainian Army further south have been isolated, and can retreat northwards only across the open countryside (if this has not already happened).
Situaation on Kherson front: The fog of war around the town of Krynky has cleared. The Russian Army's inability to storm the centre of Krynky allowed the Ukrainian Army to move new troops to the bridgehead and expand it slightly. However, the Ukrainian situation remains very complicated given the continued Russian artillery on the small 0.85 square kilometre area.
Situation on Avdivka front:
- From the northern axis:Russian Army continues to advance along Chystiakova Street and is situated a few metres away from the railway hospital. At the same time the Russian forces crossed the railway and reached the Avdeevka Construction Parts Plant and a new section of Tymiryazieva Street. It is not true that the industrial avenue was physically cut off.
- From the southern axis: Russian Army restarted the advances there by taking control over a new section of forest and railway which allowed troops to capture part of the trenches of the dachas adjacent to T-05-05 road. After this latest advance positions of Ukrainian Army further south have been isolated, and can retreat northwards only across the open countryside (if this has not already happened).