Vanlok
deus ex machina
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- 30 мај 2009
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Navy & Coastal Defense
Iran’s navy is significantly larger than Israel’s with 261 vessels (including merchant marine ships) vs 64 [23]. Despite this, their navy seems mostly focused on controlling their coastal waters vs force projection. Other than mine laying and harrying operations I think its role will be rather limited. If the US gets involved directly, things become much harder for Iran, if not, some of their vessels likely could expand their reach and force projection. For example, the midget class Yono subs are based on the North Korean vessels which reportedly sank a South Korean Corvette in 2010[24]. A more recent development was the firing of Ballistic missiles from a ship and hitting targets over 1,000 miles away (1700km) [25]. Importantly, Iran does have Coastal Defense Cruise Missiles and capable of striking throughout the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Additionally they have Antiship Ballistic missiles which have “terminal seekers that steer the missile to its target” [12].
Iran military power -dia.mil [12]
Missile Armament
It is surprisingly difficult to get an accurate number of missiles that Iran has. DOD stated they have ‘over 3000’ ballistic missiles [26]. It was reported Iran sent 400 missiles to Russia [27]. Additionally, Hezbollah, reportedly ‘an arm of Iran’ has over 150,000 rockets and missiles. I feel like there is a large gap in the armament reported when sources say ‘over 3000’. Perhaps 3000 is the number available to strike against Israel (a focus of US policy in the area). Given that Hezbollah has such a sizeable armament, I’d imagine that Iran has more or at least a comparable amount, they are likely often left out of conversations because the range is comparatively limited. Despite the more limited range, many of these weapons would likely wreak havoc in the Straits of Hormuz and other near targets as well as any who tried to enter Iran or its neighbors. Increased proliferation of shorter range munitions could also expand the threat range that they offer.
Iran has reportedly developed the Fattah hypersonic missile which has a range of 1,400km [28]. Hypersonic missiles pose a significant risk thanks to their ability to penetrate air-defense systems. While these weapons were at once described as ‘unstoppable’ it appears that the Russian hypersonic missiles have been shot down multiple times as their speed “substantially decrease while maneuvering”[29].
Iran Military Power - dia.mil [6]
For context, Tehran to Tel-Aviv is ~975 miles (1500km), western Iran to Tel-Aviv is ~650 miles (1000km). In terms of repelling attacks, Israel reportedly has 10 Iron dome batteries [30], I dive into their capabilities a bit in Wider War: Hezbollah. I think their are substantial risks and limitations here. I assume, utilizing the Iron Dome reveals its location to some degree. Moving it and setting it up again, while ‘easy’ takes several hours. This means that they cannot constantly shuffle the systems without leaving defense gaps. A consistent stream of attacks would then paint a target for Iranian drones , long range missiles or even their hypersonic missiles.
Drones
According to the Defense Intelligence Agency, “UAVs are Iran’s most rapidly advancing air capability.” Iran has a variety of drones as we see below. In addition to long range drones that can fly from Iran to Israel for strikes, Iran has also been ‘sharing’ this tech with regional allies. The proliferation of Iranian drones throughout the region means attacks can come from many different areas both near and far.
Sourced from [31] and [12b]
Conclusion
As I am writing this, news broke that Iran has launched a drone attack against Israel in retaliation for its bombing the Iranian embassy[32]. The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the United States intercepted and shot down several of these drones. This in turn, could make US launch sites valid targets (at least in the minds of Iranian leaders). If this were to occur the war would likely continue to escalate.
I want to reiterate, I do not see a winnable objective for us in this fight. We (Americans) could surely hit some targets in Iran but I do not believe we can do so with impunity (nor can the Israelis). Fighting Iran will not be similar to fights with insurgent groups we have fought in the past (it will be worse). We will not be able to line up thousands of troops and tanks on the border and push through the country like we did in Iraq. The mountains are likely largely impassable and its unclear if any of the surrounding nations would volunteer to host this force.
The War Hawks, whether bought by the military industrial complex or its sister group of Israel lobbyists, will clamor for war. They aren’t motivated by America’s best interest, they are motivated by money as I described in War is Still a Racket. The only thing worth fighting for is our lives and our rights and neither are at risk here. American leaders must avoid ANY further involvement and seek immediate de-escalation. If we continue on this path best case we further lose our influence and power in the region. The worst case scenario is a wider war that spreads even beyond the middle east. The conditions are ripe for world war and we must tread carefully to maintain peace.
Iran’s navy is significantly larger than Israel’s with 261 vessels (including merchant marine ships) vs 64 [23]. Despite this, their navy seems mostly focused on controlling their coastal waters vs force projection. Other than mine laying and harrying operations I think its role will be rather limited. If the US gets involved directly, things become much harder for Iran, if not, some of their vessels likely could expand their reach and force projection. For example, the midget class Yono subs are based on the North Korean vessels which reportedly sank a South Korean Corvette in 2010[24]. A more recent development was the firing of Ballistic missiles from a ship and hitting targets over 1,000 miles away (1700km) [25]. Importantly, Iran does have Coastal Defense Cruise Missiles and capable of striking throughout the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Additionally they have Antiship Ballistic missiles which have “terminal seekers that steer the missile to its target” [12].
Iran military power -dia.mil [12]
Missile Armament
It is surprisingly difficult to get an accurate number of missiles that Iran has. DOD stated they have ‘over 3000’ ballistic missiles [26]. It was reported Iran sent 400 missiles to Russia [27]. Additionally, Hezbollah, reportedly ‘an arm of Iran’ has over 150,000 rockets and missiles. I feel like there is a large gap in the armament reported when sources say ‘over 3000’. Perhaps 3000 is the number available to strike against Israel (a focus of US policy in the area). Given that Hezbollah has such a sizeable armament, I’d imagine that Iran has more or at least a comparable amount, they are likely often left out of conversations because the range is comparatively limited. Despite the more limited range, many of these weapons would likely wreak havoc in the Straits of Hormuz and other near targets as well as any who tried to enter Iran or its neighbors. Increased proliferation of shorter range munitions could also expand the threat range that they offer.
Iran has reportedly developed the Fattah hypersonic missile which has a range of 1,400km [28]. Hypersonic missiles pose a significant risk thanks to their ability to penetrate air-defense systems. While these weapons were at once described as ‘unstoppable’ it appears that the Russian hypersonic missiles have been shot down multiple times as their speed “substantially decrease while maneuvering”[29].
Iran Military Power - dia.mil [6]
For context, Tehran to Tel-Aviv is ~975 miles (1500km), western Iran to Tel-Aviv is ~650 miles (1000km). In terms of repelling attacks, Israel reportedly has 10 Iron dome batteries [30], I dive into their capabilities a bit in Wider War: Hezbollah. I think their are substantial risks and limitations here. I assume, utilizing the Iron Dome reveals its location to some degree. Moving it and setting it up again, while ‘easy’ takes several hours. This means that they cannot constantly shuffle the systems without leaving defense gaps. A consistent stream of attacks would then paint a target for Iranian drones , long range missiles or even their hypersonic missiles.
Drones
According to the Defense Intelligence Agency, “UAVs are Iran’s most rapidly advancing air capability.” Iran has a variety of drones as we see below. In addition to long range drones that can fly from Iran to Israel for strikes, Iran has also been ‘sharing’ this tech with regional allies. The proliferation of Iranian drones throughout the region means attacks can come from many different areas both near and far.
Sourced from [31] and [12b]
Conclusion
As I am writing this, news broke that Iran has launched a drone attack against Israel in retaliation for its bombing the Iranian embassy[32]. The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the United States intercepted and shot down several of these drones. This in turn, could make US launch sites valid targets (at least in the minds of Iranian leaders). If this were to occur the war would likely continue to escalate.
I want to reiterate, I do not see a winnable objective for us in this fight. We (Americans) could surely hit some targets in Iran but I do not believe we can do so with impunity (nor can the Israelis). Fighting Iran will not be similar to fights with insurgent groups we have fought in the past (it will be worse). We will not be able to line up thousands of troops and tanks on the border and push through the country like we did in Iraq. The mountains are likely largely impassable and its unclear if any of the surrounding nations would volunteer to host this force.
The War Hawks, whether bought by the military industrial complex or its sister group of Israel lobbyists, will clamor for war. They aren’t motivated by America’s best interest, they are motivated by money as I described in War is Still a Racket. The only thing worth fighting for is our lives and our rights and neither are at risk here. American leaders must avoid ANY further involvement and seek immediate de-escalation. If we continue on this path best case we further lose our influence and power in the region. The worst case scenario is a wider war that spreads even beyond the middle east. The conditions are ripe for world war and we must tread carefully to maintain peace.
