Актуелни случувања во светот, со осврти од геополитички аспект
- Креатор на темата Vanlok
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Југоисточна Азија ќе бега не само од доларот, туку и од Мастеркард и Виза
5 април 2023 - 11:00
Главна агенда на последниот состанок на АСЕАН, организација која покрива околу 670 милиони луѓе, била укинување на зависноста на регионот од долари, евра и фунти, во меѓусебните трансакции и наместо тоа префрлање на локални валути.
Од 10 земји членки, 5 веќе имаат ваков меѓусебен договор од ноември 2022, со кој се овозможува проширување на прекуграничниот систем за дигитално плаќање.
Во исто време Индонезија, со некои си 270 милиони жители, објави дека работи на сопствен домашен систем за плаќање. Претседателот на Индонезија, Џоко Видодо, ја поттикна тамошната администрација да почне да користи кредитни картички објавени од локалните банки и постепено да престане да ги користи странските системи за плаќање.
Алармирајќи на санкциите воведени против Русија заради војната во Украина, претседателот на Индонезија порачал дека државата мора да почне да се заштитува себеси од идни геополитички проблеми.
Toma
Корона стронг
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Не се свесни дека со санкциите на Русија си пукаа во глава што тераа и приватни фирми да воведат санкции т.е. да го напуштат пазарот,
како што гледаме остатокот од светот почна да прави стратегии за во иднина кога на нив би им вовеле санкции да нема никаков ефект.
Јас и уште неколкумина убаво велевме дека санкциите спрема Русија нема да имаат никаков ефект, оти руската економија е поинаква од нашата, а и од многу од западна Европа.
Не ми е јасно како тие што ги воведуваа санкциите не беа свесни дека ќе го принудат светот да бара алтернатива на западните финансиски системи, којзнае можеби се надеваа дека целата меѓународната заедница ќе се обедини во санкциите и Русија навистина стварно ќе колабира, ама и во таков случај Русија не би колабирала за 1 година, можеби 10тина.
како што гледаме остатокот од светот почна да прави стратегии за во иднина кога на нив би им вовеле санкции да нема никаков ефект.
Јас и уште неколкумина убаво велевме дека санкциите спрема Русија нема да имаат никаков ефект, оти руската економија е поинаква од нашата, а и од многу од западна Европа.
Не ми е јасно како тие што ги воведуваа санкциите не беа свесни дека ќе го принудат светот да бара алтернатива на западните финансиски системи, којзнае можеби се надеваа дека целата меѓународната заедница ќе се обедини во санкциите и Русија навистина стварно ќе колабира, ама и во таков случај Русија не би колабирала за 1 година, можеби 10тина.
Vanlok
deus ex machina
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Автоматски споено мислење:
US Deploys Guided-Missile Sub To Gulf Region Amid Iran Tensions, Heightened Russia Presence
Amid ongoing fears that Iranian forces could target foreign oil tankers and commercial ships in the Persian Gulf area, the US Navy has sent a guided-missile submarine armed with Tomahawk missiles to waters near the Middle East, a Pentagon spokesman said Saturday.
The nuclear-powered submarine which is currently en route is based out of Kings Bay, Georgia. The US Navy acknowledged that it passed through the Suez Canal this week, with 5th Fleet spokesman Cmdr. Timothy Hawkins describing that "It is capable of carrying up to 154 Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles and is deployed to U.S. 5th Fleet to help ensure regional maritime security and stability."
It remains rare that the US Navy would publicly disclose the location or deployment of submarines wherever they are globally. Likely the submarine could patrol the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway, frequented by international oil tankers, which also has a heavy IRGC Navy presence given some of it comprises Iranian territorial waters near the coast.
The Associated Press notes that "The U.S. Navy has also reported a series of tense encounters at sea with Iranian forces that it said were being recklessly aggressive."
But this new submarine deployment could also be part of US muscle-flexing as both Russia and China have been increasing their naval presence in the gulf.
Just last month, Russia, China and Iran held multiple days of joint drills in the Gulf of Oman, dubbed "Security Belt 2023". Additionally, this past week saw a Russian warship dock at a Saudi Arabian port for the first time in a decade.
All of this is also happening against the backdrop of the recent China-brokered détente and normalization of ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which the US administration has admitted caught the White House off guard.
Vanlok
deus ex machina
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An extremely significant statement was made yesterday by Saudi Arabia. She advocated the control of Damascus - that is, the power of Bashar al-Assad - over the entire territory of Syria.
"The parties pointed out the need to support Syrian state institutions, expand their control over Syrian territory in order to stop the presence of armed groups and outside interference in the internal affairs of Syria," the foreign ministers of both countries emphasized in a statement.
This is indeed a pivotal statement - since Saudi Arabia was one of the main sponsors of the Syrian civil war that began in 2011. For a long time, Riyadh supported various rebel groups, including the Syrian National Coalition, the Free Syrian Army and other armed groups that fought against the government of Bashar al-Assad. It was possible to defeat them only after the military assistance of the Russian Federation. Recall that recently, with the mediation of China , the Saudis resumed diplomatic relations with Iran. Now, the same story seems to be happening in Syria. Both countries are allies not only of China, but also of the Russian Federation on a number of issues.
Western media are already fearful of Saudi Arabia, one of the world's largest oil producers, entering China's orbit.
Slavyangrad
An extremely significant statement was made yesterday by Saudi Arabia. She advocated the control of Damascus - that is, the power of Bashar al-Assad - over the entire territory of Syria. "The parties pointed out the need to support Syrian state institutions, expand their control over Syrian...
t.me
Vanlok
deus ex machina
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An impossible ‘peace’
The collective west appears to lack a decisive leader, with the Hegemon currently being “led” by a senile president who is remote-controlled by a pack of polished-faced warmongers. The situation has devolved to the point where the much-hyped “Ukrainian counter-offensive” may actually be the prelude to a NATO humiliation that will make Afghanistan look like Disneyland in the Hindu Kush.
Arguably there may be some similarities between Russia-NATO now and Turkiye-Russia before March 2020: both sides are betting on some crucial military breakthrough on the battlefield before sitting at the negotiating table. The US is desperate for it: even the 20th century ‘Oracle’ Henry Kissinger is now saying that with China involved, there will be negotiations before the end of 2023.
Despite the urgency of the situation, Moscow does not appear to be in a hurry. Its key military strategy, as seen in Bakhmut/Artemyovsk, is to use a combination of the snail technique and the mincing machine. The ultimate goal is to demilitarize NATO as a whole rather than just Ukraine, and so far, it appears to be working brilliantly.
Russia is in it for the long haul, anticipating that one day the collective west will have an “Eureka!” moment and realize it is time to abandon the race.
Now let’s assume, by some divine intervention, that negotiations would start in a few months, with China involved. Moscow – and Beijing – both know they simply cannot trust anything the Hegemon says or signs.
Moreover, the crucial US tactical victory has already been conclusive: Russia sanctioned, demonized and separated from Europe, and the EU cemented as a de-industrialized, inconsequential lowly vassal.
Presupposing there is a negotiated peace, it will arguably resemble a Syria 2.0, with a massive “Idlib” equivalent right on Russia’s door, which is something entirely unacceptable to Moscow.
In practice, we will have Banderista terror outfits – the Slav version of ISIS – free to roam across the Russian Federation in car bombing and kamikaze drone sprees. The Hegemon will be able to switch the proxy war on and off at will, just as it continues to do in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan with its terror cells.
The Security Council in Moscow knows very well, based on the Minsk farce acknowledged even by former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, that this will be Minsk on steroids: the Kiev regime, or rather the post-Zelensky regime will continue to be weaponized to death with brand new NATO gimmicks.
But then the other option – where there is nothing to negotiate – is equally ominous: a Forever War.
Indivisibility of Security
The real deal to be negotiated is not “pawn in their game” Ukraine: it’s the indivisibility of security. Exactly what Moscow was sensibly trying to convince Washington via those letters sent in December 2021.
In practice, what Moscow is currently doing is realpolitik: pounding NATO on the battlefield until they are weakened enough to accept a Strategic Military Operation (SMO). The SMO would necessarily include a demilitarized zone between NATO and Russia, a neutral Ukraine, and no nuclear weapons stationed in Poland, the Baltics, or Finland.
However, given that the Hegemon is a declining superpower and “non-agreement capable,” it is uncertain whether any of this would hold, especially considering the Hegemon’s obsession with infinite NATO expansion. “Non-agreement capable” (недоговороспособны), incidentally, is a term Russian diplomats coined to describe their American counterparts’ inability to stick to any deal they sign – from Minsk to the Iran nuclear agreement.
This incandescent mix gets even more complex with the introduction of the Turkish vector.
Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu has already made it plain that if President Recep Tayyip Erdogan retains power in the 14 May presidential elections, Ankara will neither impose sanctions on Russia nor violate the Montreux Convention, which forbids the passage of warships to and from the Black Sea in wartime.
Risks of Ankara’s geopolitical shift
Erdogan’s chief security and foreign policy adviser, Ibrahim Kalyn, has aptly pointed out that there is no war between Russia and Ukraine; rather, it’s a war between Russia and the west with Ukraine serving as the proxy.
This is why the collective west is heavily invested in an “Erdogan must go” campaign, which is lavishly funded to propel an oddly-matched coalition into the presidential seat. In case the Turkish opposition wins – and their payment to the Hegemon begins – sanctions and violations of Montreux may be on the cards again.
Yet Washington may be in for a surprise. Turkish opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu has implied there will be a more or less continued balanced posturing of Ankara’s foreign policy tilt, while some observers believe that even if Erdogan is ousted, there will be limits to Turkiye’s pivot back to the west.
Erdogan, profiting from the state apparatus and his immense network of patronage, is going no-holds-barred to secure re-election. Only then might he shift from hedging his bets continuously toward making a move to become a real player in Eurasian integration.
Ankara under Erdogan, as it stands, is not pro-Russian; essentially, it tries to profit from both sides. The Turks sell Bayraktar drones to Kiev, have clinched military deals, and at the same time, under the “Turkic States” mantle, invest in separatist tendencies in Crimea and in Kherson.
At the same time, Erdogan badly needs Russian military and energy cooperation. There are no illusions in Moscow about “the Sultan,” or about where Turkiye is leading. If Ankara’s geopolitical turn is hostile, it’s the Turks that will end up losing prime seats in the Eurasian high-speed train – from BRICS+ to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and all spaces in between.
The collective west appears to lack a decisive leader, with the Hegemon currently being “led” by a senile president who is remote-controlled by a pack of polished-faced warmongers. The situation has devolved to the point where the much-hyped “Ukrainian counter-offensive” may actually be the prelude to a NATO humiliation that will make Afghanistan look like Disneyland in the Hindu Kush.
Arguably there may be some similarities between Russia-NATO now and Turkiye-Russia before March 2020: both sides are betting on some crucial military breakthrough on the battlefield before sitting at the negotiating table. The US is desperate for it: even the 20th century ‘Oracle’ Henry Kissinger is now saying that with China involved, there will be negotiations before the end of 2023.
Despite the urgency of the situation, Moscow does not appear to be in a hurry. Its key military strategy, as seen in Bakhmut/Artemyovsk, is to use a combination of the snail technique and the mincing machine. The ultimate goal is to demilitarize NATO as a whole rather than just Ukraine, and so far, it appears to be working brilliantly.
Russia is in it for the long haul, anticipating that one day the collective west will have an “Eureka!” moment and realize it is time to abandon the race.
Now let’s assume, by some divine intervention, that negotiations would start in a few months, with China involved. Moscow – and Beijing – both know they simply cannot trust anything the Hegemon says or signs.
Moreover, the crucial US tactical victory has already been conclusive: Russia sanctioned, demonized and separated from Europe, and the EU cemented as a de-industrialized, inconsequential lowly vassal.
Presupposing there is a negotiated peace, it will arguably resemble a Syria 2.0, with a massive “Idlib” equivalent right on Russia’s door, which is something entirely unacceptable to Moscow.
In practice, we will have Banderista terror outfits – the Slav version of ISIS – free to roam across the Russian Federation in car bombing and kamikaze drone sprees. The Hegemon will be able to switch the proxy war on and off at will, just as it continues to do in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan with its terror cells.
The Security Council in Moscow knows very well, based on the Minsk farce acknowledged even by former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, that this will be Minsk on steroids: the Kiev regime, or rather the post-Zelensky regime will continue to be weaponized to death with brand new NATO gimmicks.
But then the other option – where there is nothing to negotiate – is equally ominous: a Forever War.
Indivisibility of Security
The real deal to be negotiated is not “pawn in their game” Ukraine: it’s the indivisibility of security. Exactly what Moscow was sensibly trying to convince Washington via those letters sent in December 2021.
In practice, what Moscow is currently doing is realpolitik: pounding NATO on the battlefield until they are weakened enough to accept a Strategic Military Operation (SMO). The SMO would necessarily include a demilitarized zone between NATO and Russia, a neutral Ukraine, and no nuclear weapons stationed in Poland, the Baltics, or Finland.
However, given that the Hegemon is a declining superpower and “non-agreement capable,” it is uncertain whether any of this would hold, especially considering the Hegemon’s obsession with infinite NATO expansion. “Non-agreement capable” (недоговороспособны), incidentally, is a term Russian diplomats coined to describe their American counterparts’ inability to stick to any deal they sign – from Minsk to the Iran nuclear agreement.
This incandescent mix gets even more complex with the introduction of the Turkish vector.
Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu has already made it plain that if President Recep Tayyip Erdogan retains power in the 14 May presidential elections, Ankara will neither impose sanctions on Russia nor violate the Montreux Convention, which forbids the passage of warships to and from the Black Sea in wartime.
Risks of Ankara’s geopolitical shift
Erdogan’s chief security and foreign policy adviser, Ibrahim Kalyn, has aptly pointed out that there is no war between Russia and Ukraine; rather, it’s a war between Russia and the west with Ukraine serving as the proxy.
This is why the collective west is heavily invested in an “Erdogan must go” campaign, which is lavishly funded to propel an oddly-matched coalition into the presidential seat. In case the Turkish opposition wins – and their payment to the Hegemon begins – sanctions and violations of Montreux may be on the cards again.
Yet Washington may be in for a surprise. Turkish opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu has implied there will be a more or less continued balanced posturing of Ankara’s foreign policy tilt, while some observers believe that even if Erdogan is ousted, there will be limits to Turkiye’s pivot back to the west.
Erdogan, profiting from the state apparatus and his immense network of patronage, is going no-holds-barred to secure re-election. Only then might he shift from hedging his bets continuously toward making a move to become a real player in Eurasian integration.
Ankara under Erdogan, as it stands, is not pro-Russian; essentially, it tries to profit from both sides. The Turks sell Bayraktar drones to Kiev, have clinched military deals, and at the same time, under the “Turkic States” mantle, invest in separatist tendencies in Crimea and in Kherson.
At the same time, Erdogan badly needs Russian military and energy cooperation. There are no illusions in Moscow about “the Sultan,” or about where Turkiye is leading. If Ankara’s geopolitical turn is hostile, it’s the Turks that will end up losing prime seats in the Eurasian high-speed train – from BRICS+ to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and all spaces in between.
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Сметаш дека е ова вистинската тема во врска со случувањата во Молдавија, во ред се сложувам
,... но и понатаму сметам дека настаните во Трансистрија и Гагузија се во многу тесна корелација со оние во Украина. (нешто како голема шаховска табла)Колку и да ги ретушираме вестите за да изгледаат дека настаните сами од себе се случуваат, сепак некои не можат да се ослободат од впечатокот дека некој (ЕУСА) вешто ја подготвува сцената за нешто многу поголемо.
Ska Maniac
Бараба
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Ако се запука во Молдавија одма браќата Романци ќе притрчаат во помош на страна на владините сили и ете ја и Романија како члнека на Нато дирекно во конфликт со прорусите.Сметаш дека е ова вистинската тема во врска со случувањата во Молдавија, во ред се сложувам
Колку и да ги ретушираме вестите за да изгледаат дека настаните сами од себе се случуваат, сепак некои не можат да се ослободат од впечатокот дека некој (ЕУСА) вешто ја подготвува сцената за нешто многу поголемо.
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За тоа место во моментов се борат повеќе кандидати, Полска, Романија, Балтичките пигови а во последно време се типува и на Турција.
Во моментов сеуште се играат квалификации ама сигурно е дека ќе има победник.
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Во Македонија треба камбаните два саата непрестано да бијат кога ќе цркни монструмовСе одложува прославата...