Пресвртница за Украина

[roden]

Preparing for Defeat




Francis Fukuyama
10 Mar 2022, 4:03 pm

I’m writing this from Skopje, North Macedonia, where I’ve been for the last week teaching one of our Leadership Academy for Development courses. Following the Ukraine war is no different here in terms of available information, except that I’m in an adjacent time zone, and the fact that there is more support for Putin in the Balkans than in other parts of Europe. A lot of the latter is due to Serbia, and Serbia's hosting of Sputnik

I’ll stick my neck out and make several prognostications:

1. Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.
2. The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. This is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be hard to maintain if the north collapses.
3. There is no diplomatic solution to the war possible prior to this happening. There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine given the losses they have taken at this point.
4. The United Nations Security Council has proven once again to be useless. The only helpful thing was the General Assembly vote, which helps to identify the world’s bad or prevaricating actors.
5. The Biden administration’s decisions not to declare a no-fly zone or help transfer Polish MiGs were both good ones; they've kept their heads during a very emotional time. It is much better to have the Ukrainians defeat the Russians on their own, depriving Moscow of the excuse that NATO attacked them, as well as avoiding all the obvious escalatory possibilities. The Polish MiGs in particular would not add much to Ukrainian capabilities. Much more important is a continuing supply of Javelins, Stingers, TB2s, medical supplies, comms equipment, and intel sharing. I assume that Ukrainian forces are already being vectored by NATO intelligence operating from outside Ukraine.
6. The cost that Ukraine is paying is enormous, of course. But the greatest damage is being done by rockets and artillery, which neither MiGs nor a no-fly zone can do much about. The only thing that will stop the slaughter is defeat of the Russian army on the ground.
7. Putin will not survive the defeat of his army. He gets support because he is perceived to be a strongman; what does he have to offer once he demonstrates incompetence and is stripped of his coercive power?
8. The invasion has already done huge damage to populists all over the world, who prior to the attack uniformly expressed sympathy for Putin. That includes Matteo Salvini, Jair Bolsonaro, Éric Zemmour, Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orbán, and of course Donald Trump. The politics of the war has exposed their openly authoritarian leanings.
9. The war to this point has been a good lesson for China. Like Russia, China has built up seemingly high-tech military forces in the past decade, but they have no combat experience. The miserable performance of the Russian air force would likely be replicated by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force, which similarly has no experience managing complex air operations. We may hope that the Chinese leadership will not delude itself as to its own capabilities the way the Russians did when contemplating a future move against Taiwan.
10. Hopefully Taiwan itself will wake up as to the need to prepare to fight as the Ukrainians have done, and restore conscription. Let’s not be prematurely defeatist.
11. Turkish drones will become bestsellers.
12. A Russian defeat will make possible a “new birth of freedom,” and get us out of our funk about the declining state of global democracy. The spirit of 1989 will live on, thanks to a bunch of brave Ukrainians.

https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/

 

[Таксист]

Preparing for Defeat

Прегледај го приврзокот 324903


Francis Fukuyama
10 Mar 2022, 4:03 pm

I’m writing this from Skopje, North Macedonia, where I’ve been for the last week teaching one of our Leadership Academy for Development courses. Following the Ukraine war is no different here in terms of available information, except that I’m in an adjacent time zone, and the fact that there is more support for Putin in the Balkans than in other parts of Europe. A lot of the latter is due to Serbia, and Serbia's hosting of Sputnik

I’ll stick my neck out and make several prognostications:

1. Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.
2. The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. This is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be hard to maintain if the north collapses.
3. There is no diplomatic solution to the war possible prior to this happening. There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine given the losses they have taken at this point.
4. The United Nations Security Council has proven once again to be useless. The only helpful thing was the General Assembly vote, which helps to identify the world’s bad or prevaricating actors.
5. The Biden administration’s decisions not to declare a no-fly zone or help transfer Polish MiGs were both good ones; they've kept their heads during a very emotional time. It is much better to have the Ukrainians defeat the Russians on their own, depriving Moscow of the excuse that NATO attacked them, as well as avoiding all the obvious escalatory possibilities. The Polish MiGs in particular would not add much to Ukrainian capabilities. Much more important is a continuing supply of Javelins, Stingers, TB2s, medical supplies, comms equipment, and intel sharing. I assume that Ukrainian forces are already being vectored by NATO intelligence operating from outside Ukraine.
6. The cost that Ukraine is paying is enormous, of course. But the greatest damage is being done by rockets and artillery, which neither MiGs nor a no-fly zone can do much about. The only thing that will stop the slaughter is defeat of the Russian army on the ground.
7. Putin will not survive the defeat of his army. He gets support because he is perceived to be a strongman; what does he have to offer once he demonstrates incompetence and is stripped of his coercive power?
8. The invasion has already done huge damage to populists all over the world, who prior to the attack uniformly expressed sympathy for Putin. That includes Matteo Salvini, Jair Bolsonaro, Éric Zemmour, Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orbán, and of course Donald Trump. The politics of the war has exposed their openly authoritarian leanings.
9. The war to this point has been a good lesson for China. Like Russia, China has built up seemingly high-tech military forces in the past decade, but they have no combat experience. The miserable performance of the Russian air force would likely be replicated by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force, which similarly has no experience managing complex air operations. We may hope that the Chinese leadership will not delude itself as to its own capabilities the way the Russians did when contemplating a future move against Taiwan.
10. Hopefully Taiwan itself will wake up as to the need to prepare to fight as the Ukrainians have done, and restore conscription. Let’s not be prematurely defeatist.
11. Turkish drones will become bestsellers.
12. A Russian defeat will make possible a “new birth of freedom,” and get us out of our funk about the declining state of global democracy. The spirit of 1989 will live on, thanks to a bunch of brave Ukrainians.

https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/

еве од каде се напојувале северџанскиве легии!

 

[Macedon1um]

HAOS U EVROPI ZBOG RATA U UKRAJINI: Cene hrane, goriva i struje skočile! Stala proizvodnja čelika! Penzioner umro u redu za ulje!

Rat u Ukrajini osim što je izazvao potrese u Rusijim zahuktao je i inflaciju, porast cena energenata, troškovi proizvodnje padaju, potoršnja takođe, a počeli su ...

www.kurir.rs

Sandra Medaković (46), koja živi u Švedskoj, kaže da u ovoj zemlji na sukobe u Ukrajini gledaju kao na veliku opasnost po celu Evropu. Sve cene su skočile za oko 30 odsto, a najviše hleb, koji sad košta kao litar goriva jer se sva pšenica uvozi! Litar dizela košta oko 2,6 evra, litar benzina 2,2 evra, a toliko košta i litar ulja

Italija
Cene svega su skočile drastično! litar benzina već je 2,30 evra, a dizel čak 2,50 evra. Na autoputu ta cena ide i do 2,80 evra.

Srpkinja Ana Nikolić, koja godinama živi u Grčkoj, kaže da su potrošačima ove nedelje počeli da stižu dvomesečni računi za struju i po 1.000 evra za jedan stan ili kuću, što je pet puta više nego za istu potrošnju koju su plaćali prošle godine.

Stala proizvodnja čelika u Nemačkoj zbog cena energije
Zbog rasta cena električne energije u Nemačkoj, čeličana Leh-Štalverke u bavarskom gradiću Majtingen obustavila je proizvodnju, piše Dojče virtšafts nahrihten.
Kompanija je saopštila da "ekonomski nije izvodljivo" da sada radi, preneo je Sputnjik.

Во Бугарија тепачки за зејтин, цела Европа ќе ги „ужива“ благодетите од санкциите кон Русија

 

[Boro1918]

еве од каде се напојувале северџанскиве легии!

Дошол да им го подигне моралот гарант со еден Северно Атлантистички семинар. Тоа гарант било фешта, се вееле ЕУ/НАТО знамиња, се рецитирале песни за прогресивноста, имале слајдови со Американски бродови, авиони,маринц можеби и кога го бомбардираа Багдад цела недела и нормално гарант на крајот имале една групно пердашење. На нашиве гарант им дошло и мало олеснување што овој пат барем јапанец им се паднал.

 

[Gags]

Во февруари, на московската берза беа регистрирани стотици трансакции со јуани дневно, сега е околу педесет илјади дневно.

 

[poimanemam]

Во февруари, на московската берза беа регистрирани стотици трансакции со јуани дневно, сега е околу педесет илјади дневно.

Изгледа владата на Бајден планира да и го отстапи местото и да ја направи Кина економска и воена суперсила.

 

[roden]

Во Бугарија тепачки за зејтин, цела Европа ќе ги „ужива“ благодетите од санкциите кон Русија

Ова се случува само во един ланец - хипермаркетите на Kaufland.
Во Бугарија во моментов има шпекулативна цена на маслото -7 лева ,а денеска го пуштија по цена од 3 лева.
Ако во СМ некоја продавница направи истата акциja од 50 % , сум сигурен дека ќе ја гледаме истата слика.
Ама, тоа не може да ви се случи при вас. Прво ,немате странски ланци ,кои да праат реална акциja , и второ -двата селски ланеца дека ги имате са монополисти и
и имат исти цени.
Уживаjте си во филмот.

 

[poimanemam]

Ова се случува само во един ланец - хипермаркетите на Kaufland.
Во Бугарија во моментов има шпекулативна цена на маслото -7 лева ,а денеска го пуштија по цена од 3 лева.
Ако во СМ некоја продавница направи истата акциja од 50 % , сум сигурен дека ќе ја гледаме истата слика.
Ама, тоа не може да ви се случи при вас. Прво ,немате странски ланци ,кои да праат реална акциja , и второ -двата селски ланеца дека ги имате са монополисти и
и имат исти цени.
Уживаjте си во филмот.

Што е со автомобилскиве индустрии во немачка? Оти глеам си поупатен за економија дај објасни.

 

[PticaSelica]

Preparing for Defeat

Прегледај го приврзокот 324903


Francis Fukuyama
10 Mar 2022, 4:03 pm

I’m writing this from Skopje, North Macedonia, where I’ve been for the last week teaching one of our Leadership Academy for Development courses. Following the Ukraine war is no different here in terms of available information, except that I’m in an adjacent time zone, and the fact that there is more support for Putin in the Balkans than in other parts of Europe. A lot of the latter is due to Serbia, and Serbia's hosting of Sputnik

I’ll stick my neck out and make several prognostications:

1. Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.
2. The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. This is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be hard to maintain if the north collapses.
3. There is no diplomatic solution to the war possible prior to this happening. There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine given the losses they have taken at this point.
4. The United Nations Security Council has proven once again to be useless. The only helpful thing was the General Assembly vote, which helps to identify the world’s bad or prevaricating actors.
5. The Biden administration’s decisions not to declare a no-fly zone or help transfer Polish MiGs were both good ones; they've kept their heads during a very emotional time. It is much better to have the Ukrainians defeat the Russians on their own, depriving Moscow of the excuse that NATO attacked them, as well as avoiding all the obvious escalatory possibilities. The Polish MiGs in particular would not add much to Ukrainian capabilities. Much more important is a continuing supply of Javelins, Stingers, TB2s, medical supplies, comms equipment, and intel sharing. I assume that Ukrainian forces are already being vectored by NATO intelligence operating from outside Ukraine.
6. The cost that Ukraine is paying is enormous, of course. But the greatest damage is being done by rockets and artillery, which neither MiGs nor a no-fly zone can do much about. The only thing that will stop the slaughter is defeat of the Russian army on the ground.
7. Putin will not survive the defeat of his army. He gets support because he is perceived to be a strongman; what does he have to offer once he demonstrates incompetence and is stripped of his coercive power?
8. The invasion has already done huge damage to populists all over the world, who prior to the attack uniformly expressed sympathy for Putin. That includes Matteo Salvini, Jair Bolsonaro, Éric Zemmour, Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orbán, and of course Donald Trump. The politics of the war has exposed their openly authoritarian leanings.
9. The war to this point has been a good lesson for China. Like Russia, China has built up seemingly high-tech military forces in the past decade, but they have no combat experience. The miserable performance of the Russian air force would likely be replicated by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force, which similarly has no experience managing complex air operations. We may hope that the Chinese leadership will not delude itself as to its own capabilities the way the Russians did when contemplating a future move against Taiwan.
10. Hopefully Taiwan itself will wake up as to the need to prepare to fight as the Ukrainians have done, and restore conscription. Let’s not be prematurely defeatist.
11. Turkish drones will become bestsellers.
12. A Russian defeat will make possible a “new birth of freedom,” and get us out of our funk about the declining state of global democracy. The spirit of 1989 will live on, thanks to a bunch of brave Ukrainians.

https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/

Ти не беше на дудлањево... пардон на ракоплескањето на овој?!
Или онлајн "уживаше"?
Дипломи даваа? ...или лубриканти?

 

[Ne_sum_ja]

Ова се случува само во един ланец - хипермаркетите на Kaufland.
Во Бугарија во моментов има шпекулативна цена на маслото -7 лева ,а денеска го пуштија по цена од 3 лева.
Ако во СМ некоја продавница направи истата акциja од 50 % , сум сигурен дека ќе ја гледаме истата слика.
Ама, тоа не може да ви се случи при вас. Прво ,немате странски ланци ,кои да праат реална акциja , и второ -двата селски ланеца дека ги имате са монополисти и
и имат исти цени.
Уживаjте си во филмот.

7 лева е литро сончогледово масло?

 

[bijons]

...и на крај ќе испадне дека ова пандемија што цел свет го ничкоска на колено посебно толку починати од коронавирус, чиј извор на ифекција потекнува од Вухан, всушност ќе да биде всушност последица од главната причина на пандемијата од 30 тина украинските биолаборатории сопственост на САД, што сега Русите дел ги има увидено дека и покрај договорите за забрана на развој на биолошко оружје и те како истите се развивале, демек во самоодбрана.




... истите тие неколкуте ВИП кои се светски човекогрижници поради пандемијата со коронавирусот, всушност преваранти и креатори на истиот преку наивната Украина и токму преку подсекретарката Викторија Нуланд самите амери признале за лабораториско креирање на билошки агенси како биолошко оружје во Украина, па плашејќи сега со опколување на Киев дел ќе им падне во рацете на Русите, кои веќе увиделе што финасира Пентагон, вушност проследете го видеото, можеби работите ќе ни станат појасни во интерес на човечанството!

 

[Incognito]

Ова се случува само во един ланец - хипермаркетите на Kaufland.
Во Бугарија во моментов има шпекулативна цена на маслото -7 лева ,а денеска го пуштија по цена од 3 лева.
Ако во СМ некоја продавница направи истата акциja од 50 % , сум сигурен дека ќе ја гледаме истата слика.
Ама, тоа не може да ви се случи при вас. Прво ,немате странски ланци ,кои да праат реална акциja , и второ -двата селски ланеца дека ги имате са монополисти и
и имат исти цени.
Уживаjте си во филмот.

Кај нас реална си е цената од 1,5е. Тешко дека би имале 50% попуст

Кај вас поради успешната политика цената е 3,5е

 

[poimanemam]

Не разбирам како може да имаат толку скап зејтин кога од статистиката што ја имам видено се надвор од Русија и Украина еден од поголемите производители на сончоглед и сончогледово масло. Ова е гарант некакво профитерство.

Можеби имаат извоз на сончоглед во западните земји?
Нешто слично како СССР што им земал се што е најквалитетно.

 

[Таксист]

Изгледа владата на Бајден планира да и го отстапи местото и да ја направи Кина економска и воена суперсила.

се гледа дека планирал, да го отстапи местото, затоа цело време ја ескалира состојбата во Украина

 

[Björn]

https://infomax.mk/%d1%84%d0%be%d1%82%d0%be-%d1%81%d0%b5%d0%b2%d0%b5%d1%80%d0%bd%d0%b0-%d0%b8-%d0%bc%d0%b0%d1%98%d0%b4%d0%b0%d0%bd-made-by-cia-%d0%bc%d0%b0%d0%ba%d0%b5%d0%b4%d0%be%d0%bd%d1%86%d0%b8/

Собир пред руска амбасада, за подршка.

Автоматски споено мислење: 12 март 2022

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