Русија - смена во надворешната политика?

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The xx

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Gas pipeline to China: India to talk to Russia for extension


One more on the table.[DOUBLEPOST=1403657190][/DOUBLEPOST]Ах да. И ова ќе го ставам тука.

As Larry Hatheway notes, an increase of USD 10 in the price of a barrel of oil - driven by supply shocks - will shave around 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points from global growth. Every USD10 per barrel increase in the price of oil typically transfers around 0.5% of global GDP from oil consumers to oil producers. So who gains the most? (Spoiler Alert: ryhmes with usher) And is $115 the tipping point for global growth?
  • *POROSHENKO SAYS UKRAINE CEASE-FIRE MAY END BEFORE DEADLINE
  • *UKRAINE SAYS 9 PEOPLE DEAD IN HELICOPTER DOWNED BY REBELS
  • *POROSHENKO: UKRAINE TRUCE MAY END EARLY OVER REBEL ATTACKS
  • *POROSHENKO: UKRAINE FORCES TO RETURN FIRE `WITHOUT HESITATION'
So who gains the most if all hell breaks loose again and the West unveils targeted (energy) sanctions?

As UBS explains,

Investor attention is turning to the 'oil patch' and the risk of energy supply disruptions.

Oil prices have recently edged up on concerns about sectarian violence in Iraq and the associated risk of supply disruptions. Elevated energy prices may also reflect worries about possible western sanctions in the event tensions between Ukraine and Russia escalate further.

A Brent oil price of USD115 has shown to be a tipping point for the world economy. That is indicated by comparing our global growth surprise index and Brent prices (Figure 1, overleaf). Oil prices and global growth surprises are typically positively correlated, as stronger growth lifts crude prices. But there are limits to how far oil prices can rise without triggering a growth slowdown, particularly if unexpected supply shocks push prices up suddenly from already high levels.

Некој се тешеше дека Русија економски може да загуби доколку дојде до пад на цената на нафата, а во реалноста и пракса обратно се случува.





Eyeballing the chart above suggests that whenever oil prices have breached USD115 in recent years, global growth has typically taken a turn for the worse.

Simulations on the Oxford Economic Forecasting (OEF) econometric model suggest that an increase of USD 10 in the price of a barrel of oil—driven by supply shocks—will shave around 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points from global growth.

Every USD10 per barrel increase in the price of oil typically transfers around 0.5% of global GDP from oil consumers to oil producers. The model assumes—correctly in our view—that the propensity to spend additional income in the oil-producing complex is lower than it is in the oil-consuming complex.



Ете ја фината страна на паметната политика.


The same model simulations suggest that oil-intensive emerging countries that lack domestic energy production capacity are typically worse off in any scenario where oil prices are climbing (see Figure 2 below). For instance, East European economies such as Hungary, Czech Republic and Turkey, or Asian economies such as the Philippines, India and Thailand fare relatively poorly in oil shock scenarios. These economies would suffer a shortfall in growth of between 0.5 and 0.7 percentage points after one year should oil prices unexpectedly climb a further USD 10 from current levels.

Oil-producing economies such as Russia or Norway clearly benefit when oil prices rise, enjoying a boost to GDP of up to 0.6 percentage points (Russia) or 0.2 points (Norway). Among large developed economies, the US and Japan are least affected. Prior to the US shale revolution model simulations would have suggested a negative impact of 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points off US growth for every USD 10 increase in the price of Brent. The estimate has dipped to 0.1% according to the most recent estimates. European economies, with higher oil import intensity, are more exposed than the US according to our model-driven estimates.



* * *

Theatrics? as we wondered earlier. With Russian stocks now green YTD and massively outperforming US equities since the sanctions, it seems Obama's only move is energy targeted sanctions.. or did Ukraine just shoot itself in the foot (and help Putin?). It seems he is not impressed either:

  • *PUTIN SAYS NOT ENOUGH ACHIEVED IN UKRAINE TO OVERCOME CRISIS
[DOUBLEPOST=1403658213][/DOUBLEPOST]Интересно ќе биде да го слушнам господинот Баросо, можеа на Бугарија и на нас да ни оправаат криви дрини.
Да видиме сега.

Austria Signs South Stream Pipeline Deal In Defiance Of Europe
 
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The xx

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jamajka

mode: Calm
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Русите испробале нова ракета - „ Сатана “
http://www.mkd.mk/svet/nauka-i-tehnologija/ruskata-raketa-satana-najmokjnoto-oruzhje-koga-bilo-napraveno-video
Дали ќе дочекаме да кажат сите - доста беше, војни, страдања...?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzaUaqccTPI
Сатана е старо оружје од Советско време направено 1967 година и сеуште неприкосновено. Со брзина од околу 30 000 километри на час, недофатно за ниеден ракетен штит. Една ракета носи 10 боеви глави со вкупна моќност која достига и до 20 мегатони. Една таква ракета уништува 3 големи сојузни држави во САД.
 

Vanlok

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http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-07-02/gazprom-gas-price-in-china-deal-said-to-be-near-germany-s-level
Gazprom’s China Gas Price Said to Be Near German Level

China agreed to pay $25 billion before deliveries begin, Gazprom Deputy Chief Executive Officer Alexander Medvedev said earlier this month. Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg

OAO Gazprom (OGZD), the world largest natural-gas producer, will supply fuel to China at a price close to Germany’s, according to Russian officials.

Keeping parity between Germany and China, which will be Gazprom’s two largest customers after shipments to the Asian country start, may reassure investors that Russia didn’t offer excessive discounts to win a deal that had been sought for more than a decade.

The base price for China National Petroleum Corp. is about $360 per 1,000 cubic meters, two government officials in Moscow said, asking not to be identified because the information is confidential. That’s near the average $366 that Gazprom charged Germany last year, which pays one of the lowest prices in Europe, one of the officials said.

The estimated value of the accord is about $400 billion, the largest contract in natural-gas history, Gazprom said when the deal was signed last month. The Russian company had declined to reveal the exact gas price.

Gazprom shares rose as much as 1.6 percent to 151.3 rubles in Moscow and traded at 151.1 rubles at 4:52 p.m. local time.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is pivoting to Asia as a buyer of his nation’s gas to bolster the economy as relations sour with the U.S. and European Union because of the crisis in Ukraine. After more than a decade of talks, Russia signed its first gas deal with China last month.

Gazprom plans to start supplies in 2018 to 2020 reaching 38 billion cubic meters annually within five years. Germany, which has been buying Russian gas for 40 years, imported 40.2 billion cubic meters of Gazprom’s fuel last year. That’s a quarter of Russia’s gas deliveries to Europe.

Global Prices
The base price in a gas sales contract can be adjusted to take account of changes in the global crude oil prices, inflation and in interest rates.

It “sounds like a reasonable price, similar to what China’s paying from gas imports from Central Asia countries,” said Yan Shi, an analyst at UOB Kay Hian Ltd. in Shanghai. “CNPC can still make a profit when the gas import begins to flow.”

China agreed to pay $25 billion before deliveries begin, Alexander Medvedev, Gazprom deputy chief executive officer, said last month. The upfront money will help Russia finance field developments in Siberia and the pipeline to bring gas to China.

A schedule for advance payments may be signed in September and Gazprom would provide a discount for the gas covered by the agreement, one of the Russian officials said.

The financial arrangements between Gazprom and CNPC mean that by CNPC’s accounting the price for gas would be about $350 per 1,000 cubic meters, a Chinese official said, asking not to be identified, because the accord isn’t public.

The press offices at Gazprom and CNPC declined to comment on the price.
 

Vanlok

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http://rt.com/news/171188-russian-hacker-kidnapped-america/
US ‘kidnaps’ Russian MP’s son to ‘exchange him for Snowden’
A Russian MP claims the US kidnapped his son from the Maldives on bogus cyber-fraud charges and may be preparing to offer him as bait in a swap deal for Edward Snowden.

Roman Seleznyov, 30, was arrested at Male international airport as he was about to board a flight to Moscow. He was forced by US secret service agents to board a private plane to Guam and was later arrested. The Russian ministry slammed his detention as “a de-facto kidnapping.”

Moscow considers the kidnapping "a new hostile move by Washington,” and accused the US of ignoring proper procedure in dealing with foreign nationals suspected of crimes.
 

GhostLeader

ONE OVER ALL
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Ќе го ставам линков тука бидејќи сметам дека е доказ за лицемерието на Русија кон Србија и како они ги крадат со стотици милиони долари секоја година Србите и ќе ги крадат во наредните 10 години до кога важи договорот спомнат во линков.Исто така оди во прилог со насловот на темата т.е побивањето на истата.Инаку случајно пред малце ја најдов емисијава на Б92 на ТВ.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tNRTYH-mS0
 

Vanlok

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Хммм...
[DOUBLEPOST=1406235365][/DOUBLEPOST]Поврзано со руските интереси:

http://www.sovereignman.com/trends/obamas-dumbest-move-to-date-14735/
Obama’s dumbest move to date… seizing a foreign bank??
Ten dark suited men entered the premises of FBME bank in Cyprus on Friday afternoon and took it hostage.

It must have looked like a scene from the Matrix. And given the surrealism of how this conflict is escalating, maybe it was.

The men were from the Central Bank of Cyprus (CBC). And they commandeered FBME because an obscure agency within the US government recently issued a report accusing the bank of laundering money.

It just so happens that FBME… and Cyprus in general… is where a lot of wealthy Russians hold their vast fortunes.

Bear in mind, there has been no proof that any crime was committed. There was no court hearing. No charges were read. It wasn’t even the government of Cyprus who accused them of anything.

There was just a generic report penned by some bureaucrat 10,000 miles away.

Funny thing—when HSBC got caught red-handed laundering funds for a Mexican drug cartel last year, the US government gave them a slap on the wrist. HSBC got off with a fine.

Yet when the US government merely hints that FBME could be laundering money, the bank gets taken over at gunpoint.

Welcome to warfare in the 21st century. It’s not about battleships and ground troops anymore.

This time the adversaries are battling each other using what ultimately affects everyone: money.

And on this battlefield the US doesn’t really have many options.

  • US banks still form the nucleus of the global financial system, but this is quickly being replaced.
  • Just last week the BRICS nations met in Fortaleza, Brazil to launch the origins of a brand new, non-US financial system.
  • The US is still the largest economy in the world, but will likely lose this status to China by the end of the year.
  • The US dollar is still the most widely used currency in global trade, but even America’s closest allies (Canada, Western Europe) recognize that the time has come to move beyond the dollar.
So while the US is still running around and barking at others, it is quickly losing its capacity to bite.

Their only tactic is to haphazardly attack Russian interests wherever they can.

They’re sanctioning Russian companies. They’re trying to torpedo international support for Russia. And now they’ve resorted to plundering Russian assets held in other sovereign nations.

Imagine you’re Qatar. Or China. Or Kuwait. Or Singapore. Or anyone else who holds substantial amounts of US debt.

All of these countries understand the lesson loud and clear: when the US doesn’t like you, they will do everything they can to make your life difficult.

Does this inspire confidence? If you’re holding hundreds of billions of dollars of US Treasuries, does this really improve your level of trust in the US?

Probably not.

By terrorizing Russian interests, the Obama administration is begging the rest of the world to reconsider their misplaced trust in the United States.

All these foreign countries really have to do if they want to retaliate is start dumping their US Treasuries. Or simply stop rolling over when the notes mature.

That will cause catastrophic consequences in the United States. Interest rates will soar, inflation will kick in, and the government will be even closer to default than it already is.

Inexplicably, Mr. Obama is practically begging the world to do this. It’s tremendously arrogant.

It’s like the economic warfare equivalent of Napoleon pompously leading his overstretched, exhausted army into Russia.

And neither Napoleon nor Obama gave the slightest consideration to the big picture consequences.

At $17.6 trillion in debt, the US is trying to wage economic war without any ammunition. It’s not something that is going to work out well for them.

I’m off to Ukraine this weekend; stay tuned for further dispatches from the front lines.
 
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ММФ ги намали предвидувањата за руската економија , наместо претходните предвидувања за раст од 1,3% , сега тоа е намалено на 0,2%.
Сето ова е последица на Украинската криза. (смената во надворешната политика).

Во добрите времиња Русија памтеше раст и од 8% , но сега одат надолу.
 

The xx

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Се мислев дали да му пишам на дарданелија, ама ај пушти го низ вода. Не вреди.
 

Vanlok

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Војната против Русија е веќе некое време почната преку прокси моделот на дејствување.
Нов чекор во оваа прокси војна, меѓународниот суд во Хаг донесе пресуда со која Русија треба да плати над 50 милијарди долари отштета заради разврската со банкротот на Јукос, плус 64 милијарди долари судиски трошоци (ова последново ми личи на грешка).

Извор:
http://rt.com/business/176064-yukos-russia-50bn-damages/
 
M

Mario Gómez

Гостин
Ако одбијат да платат, може да се замрзне целиот имот што припаѓа на РФ надвор од границите и да се продаде. Сепак тоа е долг процес. Михаил Ходорховски вели дека му е жал што штетата мора да ја плаќа државата а не мафијата која тогаш била инволвирана. Тајмингот на пресудава како е погоден. :)
 

Vanlok

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Тајмингот не „погоден„ туку е годен.
Ова се неверојатно големи пари и за велесили како Руската Федерација. Мислам дека одсега натаму работите ќе се разжестуваат, нема да се смируваат. Сите акции од аспект на надворешната политика на САД говорат за правење и барање причини за да се присили РФ да влезе во војна со Украина. Што е планот за потоа, можеме да претпоставуваме... ама понатамошна ескалација е повеќе од веројатна.
 

Bratot

Стоик и Машкртник!
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Овој модел може да се примени и од страна на Русија за странскиот имот кој се наоѓа на нејзина територија.
Од друга страна постојат и други начини да се возврати на евентуалното замрзнување на рускиот државен имот, но за тоа отом потом.
 
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Мислам дека е ова точката каде ќе се прекршат работите-или Русија ќе си ја наведне главата и
е си слуша што ќе им наредуваат,или ќе испаден голема фрка.
 

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